mlkrborn
13 years ago
Analysts Hammer STEC Following Weak Guidance
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tickerspy.com Staff, On Friday July 29, 2011, 12:03 pm
Shares of data storage provider STEC Inc. (NASDAQ: STEC - News) are plunging 38% after the company reported second-quarter profit and revenue results that missed its own previous estimates and Wall Street estimates while issuing third-quarter guidance that also falls short of analysts' expectations. STEC forecast a third-quarter profit of 8-10 cents a share on revenue of $70-$72 million, well below the 31 cents on revenue of $96 million analysts were forecasting.
The news isn't sitting well with investors as the Data Storage Stocks Index is plunging 4.2%. Stifel Nicolaus said STEC's guidance is not a meaningful indicator of what rival OCZ Technology Group (NASDAQ: OCZ - News) may have to say when it reports. That stock is down 3% today.
Needham & Co. said the two primary culprits behind STEC's weak results and guidance were lost market share and lower SAS SSD volume. The Benchmark Co. downgraded STEC to "hold" from "buy" and said it is moving to the sidelines on the stock. JPMorgan pared its rating on the stock to "underweight" from "neutral" and slashed its price target to $13 from $23. ThinkEquity downgraded STEC to "hold" from "buy." The research firm says it still believes in the SSD secular trend, but that it may be the second quarter of 2012 before this proves to be a catalyst for STEC.
Bart Myers
13 years ago
Sterne Agee is out with its report today on STEC (NASDAQ: STEC), initiating STEC at Neutral.
In a note to clients, Sterne Agee writes, "We believe STEC could be an attractive stock once consensus GMs are reset, given the growth in the overall market. There are also bull views that M&A could offer an exit for STEC, which is a potential outcome. However, the options are becoming limited with SanDisk buying Pliant, Samsung now working at EMC, Western Digital acquiring Hitachi's disk business and Micron making progress in the enterprise space. STEC currently trades at 11x CY12 Adj PE."
Source: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/06/1187287/update-sterne-agee-initiates-stec-at-neutral#ixzz1Pv6e5VNi
Magnusson
13 years ago
NEWS:
Fun to trade STEC, easy on the Charts.....
STEC to Present at the Stifel Nicolaus Technology, Communications & Internet Conference2 minutes ago - PMZ via Comtex
GlobeNewswireSTEC, Inc. (Nasdaq:STEC) announced today that its management team will present at the Stifel Nicolaus Technology, Communications & Internet Conference. The presentation will be held at 9:45 a.m. Pacific Time on Wednesday, February 9, 2011. The Conference is being held at the Fairmont Hotel in San Francisco, California.
About STEC, Inc. (STEC)
STEC, Inc. is a leading global provider of solid-state drive technologies and solutions tailored to meet the high-performance, high-reliability needs of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). With headquarters in Santa Ana, California and locations worldwide, STEC leverages almost two decades of solid-state drive knowledge and experience to deliver the industry's most comprehensive line of solid-state drives to the storage industry.
For further information about STEC, please contact the Company's Investor Relations department at (949) 260-8328 (ir@stec-inc.com). To subscribe to the Company's "Email Alerts" service, please visit the Company's website at www.stec-inc.com, and then click on the red "Investors" tab at the top of the home page, and finally "Email Alerts."
The STEC, Inc. logo is available at http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/prs/?pkgid=1079
This news release was distributed by GlobeNewswire, www.globenewswire.com
SOURCE: STEC, Inc.
CONTACT: STEC, Inc. Mitch Gellman, Vice President of Investor Relations (949) 260-8328
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Best Relative Performance in the Computer Storage & Peripherals Industry Detected in Shares of Lexmark International (LXK, STEC, NVTL, NTAP, HYC) 13 hours 23 minutes ago - PSM via Comtex
Comtex SmarTrend(R)Below are the top five companies in the Computer Storage & Peripherals industry as measured by relative performance. This analysis was compiled based on yesterday's trading activity as we search for stocks that have the potential to outperform. Lexmark International (NYSE:LXK) ranks first with a gain of 13.23%; STEC (NASDAQ:STEC) ranks second with a gain of 4.15%; and Novatel Wireless (NASDAQ:NVTL) ranks third with a gain of 3.61%. NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) follows with a gain of 3.27% and Hypercom (NYSE:HYC) rounds out the top five with a gain of 3.02%. SmarTrend currently has shares of Hypercom in an Uptrend and issued the Uptrend alert on September 09, 2010 at $3.60. The stock has risen 156.2% since the Uptrend alert was issued. Write to Chip Brian at cbrian@tradethetrend.com
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------STEC: The Trend Continues Up (STEC) 1 days 6 hours 55 minutes ago - PSM via Comtex
Comtex SmarTrend(R)SmarTrend identified an Uptrend for STEC (NASDAQ:STEC) on December 07, 2010 at $17.48. In approximately 2 months, STEC has returned 21.4% as of today's recent price of $21.23. In the past 52 weeks, shares of STEC have traded between a low of $9.47 and a high of $22.79 and are now at $21.23, which is 124% above that low price. STEC is currently above its 50-day moving average of $18.42 and above its 200-day moving average of $14.83. Look for these moving averages to climb to confirm the company's upward momentum. In the last five trading sessions, the 50-day MA has climbed 1.79% while the 200-day MA has risen 0.8%. SmarTrend will continue to scan these moving averages and a number of other proprietary indicators for any shifts in the trajectory of STEC shares. Write to Chip Brian at cbrian@tradethetrend.com
realfast95
15 years ago
January 8, 2010, 11:55 AM ET How My Top Stocks for 2010 Are Doing So Far
By James Altucher
We’re only a little way into 2010 but I already have an update on stocks I wrote about in this November article.
STEC (STEC) is roughly 50% higher. Some readers complained when the article was published that perhaps STEC stock would need to “fill the gap” down to $10.50 before it could begin to move up. The stock was at $12.30 at the time and it ended up falling as low as $11.50 before starting to move up.
While I respect the discipline that technical analysis traders exhibit, it often doesn’t work when staring in the face of real fundamentals. STEC is the leader in its space, is going to have $2 a share in earnings (giving it 5 P/E if it were to fall into the $10s) and the fears of the glut at its largest customer, EMC, have been overblown.
The stock has since gone from a low of $11.50 to more than $19 and Deutsche Bank just put out a report with a “strong buy” and a $36 price target. Its own channel checks on EMC suggest that the glut of inventory isn’t as big as expected and that STEC will surprise over the next quarter. So despite having significant gains I’m holding onto my shares and waiting until at least the mid $20s before taking a look at the lay of the land and deciding what to do.
Although this is a “top pick for 2010,” I always check my assumptions along the way and make decisions accordingly. I’ll watch what’s happening and do a gut check. But I’m a believer here.
WellCare Health Plans (WCG) has gone from a quick $33 to about $37 since the article was written. It had gone as high as $39 and looked like it was going to push through $40 when Oppenheimer downgraded it based on valuation and put a price target of $36 on it. I’m a believer in this stock for the duration of 2010 based on the uncertainty going away surrounding health care. I do think, however, that some profits should be taken here while the dust subsides and the market complete its little pullback after such a strong run. I think long-term this is a $50 stock but I always like to be cautious.
Assured Guaranty (AGO) is basically flat from when the article was written and remains my favorite pick for the year. I’ve read various analyst reports over the past few weeks from hedge funds that have done a forensic analysis of the various securities AGO has on its books and are comfortable with $5 to $6 in earnings over 2010, putting AGO at a P/E ratio of 4 to 5 times. I’m a holder until at least the mid-$30s before I look around.
Incidentally, in terms of another update: On Dec. 22 I wrote about stocks that could soar the last week of the year. The premise was that stocks near 52-week highs with large short interest would go up because short-sellers would have to cover and take their loss for tax reasons. A tax-inspired short squeeze.
This ended up happening. The market was flat from Dec. 22 to Jan. 1 but the stocks of lululemon (LULU), Scholastic (SCHL), and Blue Nile (NILE) were all up, and as a group were up about 3.2%. They’ve continued to go up in the past few days. I recommend taking all profits if you haven’t already.
James Altucher is a managing partner of Formula Capital, an alternative asset management firm, and an author on investment strategies. Unlike Dow Jones reporters, he may have positions in the stocks he writes about.
http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/2010/01/08/how-my-top-stocks-for-2010-are-doing-so-far/
realfast95
15 years ago
January 6, 2010 10:31 AM EST
Noble Financial downgrades Stec, Inc (Nasdaq: STEC) from Buy to Hold.
Noble analyst says, "Shares have rallied approximately 70% from recent lows; Taking the opportunity downgrade shares to "Hold" Recent rally a function of some speculation over unlikely events be believe in the long-term growth potential for the enterprise SSD market and STEC's completive position within this market; however, shares could trade down in the near term Due to inventory overhang at EMC, STEC's first-quarter 2010 guidance will likely disappoint investors; Once first-quarter guidance is discounted in share price, we may become more constructive."
http://www.streetinsider.com/Downgrades/Noble+Financial+Downgrades+Stec,+Inc+(STEC)+to+Hold/5225641.html
sylvester80
15 years ago
Deutsche Bank reiterates buy rating on STEC. Target $36. Calls STEC their top pick for 2010
Monday, January 04, 2010 6:56 AM
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/atom.xml
Deutsche Bank is very positive on STEC Inc. (NASDAQ:STEC) reiterating their Buy rating and $36 price target and calling the stock their Top Pick for 2010.
Firm notes they view STEC as the best pure-play way to play adoption of SSDs in the enterprise market. While adoption of SSDs into enterprise applications appears to have stalled modestly in the second half of 2009, due to its early stage of development, limited competitive offerings, more difficulty selling to mainstream buyers, and concerns about the technology, they believe SSDs offer performance benefits in enterprise applications which will ultimate drive adoption. In firm's view catalysts for adoption include lower NAND prices, additional suppliers, automatic tiering software, and the transition to 6 Gb/s SAS. Over the longer term, SSD units are expected to grow at a CAGR of 149% through 2013, with units forecast to double in 2010 and 2011. With ample room for multiple suppliers, they view STEC as well positioned to benefit from its first mover advantage and continue to grow revenue considerably, as the growth of the market will likely far outstrip ASP declines and market share losses.
Inventory overhang at EMC; what’s priced in?
In early November, STEC reported its F3Q-09 quarter, with results and guidance generally in line with expectations. However, the news that put a cold chill through investors’ hearts was the disclosure that STEC’s business with EMC was not selling through at the levels originally expected. As a result, EMC had excess inventory of SSDs in 3Q and would possibly have additional excess inventory in 4Q. While STEC did not provide specifics on the number of drives in inventory or on why SSD sales had seemed to stall, the company did put a sales incentive plan in place to encourage its customers’ sales people to sell SSDs. Because EMC has already committed to buying $120M in SSDs during 2H09, the excess inventory is unlikely to impact 4Q results, but will potentially create an overhand in 1Q-10 when EMC potentially slows down purchases of new SSDs as it works down its inventory. As seen in Figure 1 below, a potential stall in EMC business is significant, as EMC represented 54% of STEC’s sales in 3Q and accounted for 87% of ZeusIOPS sales.
While it is hard to assess the exact impact of the inventory overhand at EMC, based on Deutsche's industry checks and conversations with the company, they believe the magnitude of the overhang is likely smaller than originally feared. EMC remains committed to SSD technology and currently has only qualified STEC for its storage arrays. While 1Q-10 may see some stall, the slow-down will likely be short-term.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1M/S0HiNP7qoOI/AAAAAAAAAYY/UY4uK2deXAQ/s1600-h/STEC_EMC.GIF
Deutsche Bank’s assumptions
As a worst-case scenario, the firm views the above outcome as more dire than reality, but believes it is a healthy exercise necessary to assess the downside risk to results. Based on their conversations with contacts and with STEC management, they do not believe the inventory overhang is as large as this worst-case scenario suggests. In addition, Deutsche believes the typical strength in 4Q hardware sales, coupled with STEC’s sales incentive program will stimulate some demand in 4Q. Based on these assumptions, they assume EMC’s real demand for SSDs was roughly $8M short of actual sales in 3Q and will be roughly $10M short of targets in 4Q. As a result, they see an overhang of roughly $18M in sales in 1Q-10, which will be absorbed by demand.
Notablecalls: Deutsche also discusses several topics including competition & why aren’t SSDs ramping yet. Expectedly, the conclusions are mostly positive. The call is 24 pg. long so it's a fairly thorough one.
Lately the stock has been a bit of a short-crusher & I think the comments from Deutsche will bring some additional pain for the shorts.
If they get this one going again, I see it trading $17-17.50+ in a jiffy. Short interest is still sky high and Deutsche's inventory analysis sure looks interesting.