Progressive Retains Neutral Rec - Analyst Blog
January 14 2014 - 7:20PM
Zacks
We retain our Neutral recommendation on Progressive
Corp. (PGR) given an increasing trend in total expense,
increased competition and a soft economic situation challenging
growth. Progressive carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Why the Reiteration?
Continued growth at the Commercial Auto businesses could be
challenging owing to the soft economy combined with increased
competition. In the months of October and November last year, the
Commercial Auto business experienced dwindling results.
In addition, Progressive has been experiencing an upscale in
expenses. Results of the last two reported months also exhibited a
rise in expenses. Higher losses and loss adjustment expense,
policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses continue
to drive higher expenses.
Nevertheless, Progressive’s focus on customer retention, efforts to
return value to shareholders, and a dominant position in product,
service and distribution innovation, especially in personal auto,
is expected to weather these negatives.
In Dec 2013, the Board approved a special dividend of $1.00,
testifying the inherent strength of its balance sheet. With respect
to share buybacks, it spent $38.1 million to buy back 1.5 million
shares in the third quarter of 2013.
Of the share repurchase authorization involving 75 million
shares approved in Jun 2011, the company is still left with 35.3
million shares to be bought back. Given its favorable financial
strength, we expect more shares to be repurchased going
forward.
Additionally, the debt-to-capital ratio continues to improve over
the years. During the third quarter, Progressive bought back
debentures worth $54.1 million, and beginning fourth quarter it
retired $150 million 7% Notes. Going forward, we expect
Progressive’s deleveraging activities to further improve its
debt-to-capital ratio.
Other Stocks to Consider
Some better-ranked stocks in the insurance space include
Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG (AWH),
Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. (AHL) and
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH). All these stocks
sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
ASPEN INS HLDGS (AHL): Free Stock Analysis Report
ALLIED WORLD AS (AWH): Free Stock Analysis Report
HILLTOP HLDGS (HTH): Free Stock Analysis Report
PROGRESSIVE COR (PGR): Free Stock Analysis Report
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