Can The S&P 500 Climb Higher In May 2023?
May 02 2023 - 6:48AM
Finscreener.org
Equity markets in the U.S. are
expected to remain volatile this week, given the financial crisis
surrounding its banking sector. Shares of First
Republic Bank (NYSE:
FRC) plunged over 50% on
Friday, reaching an intraday low of $2.98 per share. So far this
year, the stock has plummeted 97%, with the majority of losses
occurring after investor confidence in the bank waned due to the
collapse of two regional lenders in March.
Last week, CNBC revealed that
advisors for First Republic were devising a plan which will be
presented to larger banks, allowing the regional lender to sell
bonds and other assets at above-market rates and subsequently raise
equity. While the purchasing banks would incur a loss on the bonds,
this approach could prove more cost-effective in the long run
compared to allowing the bank to fail and face regulatory
seizure.
On Friday, Reuters reported that
U.S. officials from the FDIC, Treasury Department, and Federal
Reserve were arranging meetings with other banks to establish a
rescue plan for First Republic.
Before the bank disclosed its
first-quarter results on Monday, First RepublicU+02019s shares
closed at $16. The report demonstrated a roughly 40% decline in
deposits, causing the stock to drop over 60% in the following two
days and reach an all-time low.
First Republic is a regional bank
that has primarily catered to high net worth individuals and their
businesses, including providing low-interest mortgages to such
clients.
Which S&P 500 companies will release earnings
this week?
In the coming week, earnings
season will persist with reports from notable companies like
Starbucks (NASDAQ:
SBUX),
Uber Technologies (NYSE:
UBER),
AMD (NASDAQ:
AMD),
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:
QCOM), and
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).
Thus far, S&P 500 companies have demonstrated their most
outstanding performance compared to analystsU+02019 expectations
since Q4 of 2021, as per FactSet data.
Approximately 53% of S&P
500 companies have
released their earnings, with 79% surpassing consensus EPS
estimates. This surpasses the five-year average of 77% and the
10-year average of 73%. The consumer discretionary sector has
experienced the most substantial earnings growth among all sectors,
with an average year-over-year increase of 47.8%. Conversely, the
materials sector has underperformed, witnessing a 30.3% decline in
earnings compared to the previous year.
Labor market under focus
Next week, new data on the U.S.
labor market will be unveiled. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
is set to publish its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
(JOLTS) for March on Tuesday, detailing the monthU+02019s total
openings, hires, quits, and separations. ItU+02019s expected that
job openings in March fell to 9.7 million, down from 9.93 million
in February, which would represent the lowest number in two
years.
On Wednesday,
ADP (NASDAQ:
ADP), a payroll provider, will release its National
Employment Report for April, focusing on private sector payrolls.
ItU+02019s estimated that private companies added 135,000 jobs, a
slight decrease from the 145,000 jobs gained in March. This leads
up to the Labor DepartmentU+02019s nonfarm payrolls report on
Friday.
Analysts predict that payrolls
increased by only 178,000 in April, the smallest rise since a loss
of 268,000 jobs in December 2020. If this holds true, it could
indicate a decelerating economy and a relaxation of the tight labor
market experienced over the past year, during which the Federal
Reserve increased interest rates.
Interest rates
Next week, the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) members, who are Federal Reserve
policymakers, will convene for their latest meeting to discuss the
central bankU+02019s rate-setting policies.
According to CME GroupU+02019s
fed funds futures, it is widely anticipated that officials will
increase the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points,
bringing it to a range of 5% to 5.25%. This hike could potentially
be the final one in the FedU+02019s tightening campaign. In an
attempt to curb the highest inflation rates seen in 40 years, Fed
policymakers have raised interest rates by a cumulative 475 basis
points since March of the previous year.
First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC)
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