Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) (TSX:ABX) – Barrick is
projecting a 30% growth in the production of gold-equivalent ounces
from its existing assets by the end of this decade1 while it
continues to unlock the value embedded in its portfolio, says
president and chief executive Mark Bristow.
Speaking at the Gold Forum Americas, Bristow
said while Barrick was alert to potentially value-accretive
opportunities generated by the consolidation of the industry, it
had the rare luxury of doing so from an asset base that would
support organic growth well into the future.
“Five years ago, we set out to build a
sustainably profitable gold and copper business focused on
world-class assets. We did not have to buy them at a premium:
they were embedded in the merged portfolio of Barrick and Randgold
and we just had to unlock their value,” he said.
“We have six Tier One2 gold mines with more in
the making and our long-term plans are based on quality orebodies
with industry-leading grades that drive improving cost
profiles. Alongside our peerless gold portfolio, we are also
building a substantial copper business, both to feed the rising
demand for this strategic metal and because it enhances our growth
optionality to include copper-gold porphyries.”
Bristow listed three world-class gold
opportunities, all in Nevada, which he described as the world’s
premier mining jurisdiction. The recently commissioned
Goldrush is ramping up to a targeted 400,000 ounces per annum by
2028.3 Bordering on Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned
Fourmile, which is returning grades double those of Goldrush and is
another Tier One mine in the making.4 Still in Nevada, the
14-million-ounce Leeville project is developing into a major growth
driver that could double or triple Carlin’s reserves, extending its
life beyond 2045.5
On the copper side of the business, two
transformative projects are on track for first production in 2028.
The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce
400,000 tonnes of copper and 500,000 ounces of gold per year in the
second phase of its development.4 The Lumwana Super Pit
project in Zambia will double the mine’s production over a +30-year
life.4
“Mining is a consumptive industry which requires
constant replacement of the ounces it depletes. Barrick leads the
industry in orebody expansion and has more than replaced the gold
reserves it has mined over the past five years.6 Even more
significantly, the ounces that have been added are at the same or
better grade than the reserves that were mined,” Bristow said.
He noted that since 2019, Barrick had also built
an industry-leading balance sheet, reducing net debt by $3.5
billion, investing $11.2 billion in +10 year life-of-mine plans for
its key mines and returning more than $5 billion to
shareholders. Its strong operating cash flows would provide the
financial flexibility to fund its growth projects.
“Considering all this, it’s extraordinary how
undervalued Barrick’s shares are. Based on analysts’ consensus net
asset value calculations, the value of just our interest in Nevada
Gold Mines and our copper portfolio almost exceeds our current
market capitalization.7 This means that the rest of our
business is only valued at $3.3 billion, and that includes our
interest in three Tier One gold mines outside Nevada, the
world-class Fourmile project, and the development projects in the
pipeline.7 It also does not take into account our exploration
teams’ unparallelled success in discovering new ounces. At
our current share price, the case for investing in Barrick should
be compelling,” he said.
Barrick enquiries
Investor and media relationsKathy du Plessis+44 20 7557
7738Email: barrick@dpapr.com
Website: www.barrick.com
Technical Information
The scientific and technical information
contained in this presentation has been reviewed and approved by
Craig Fiddes, SME-RM, Lead, Resource Modeling, Nevada Gold Mines;
Richard Peattie, MPhil, FAusIMM, Mineral Resources Manager: Africa
and Middle East; Simon Bottoms, CGeol, MGeol, FGS, FAusIMM, Mineral
Resource Management and Evaluation Executive (in this capacity Mr.
Bottoms is also responsible on an interim basis for scientific and
technical information relating to the Latin America and Asia
Pacific region); John Steele, CIM, Metallurgy, Engineering and
Capital Projects Executive; and Joel Holliday, FAusIMM, Executive
Vice-President, Exploration—each a “Qualified Person” as defined in
National Instrument 43-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Mineral
Projects.All mineral reserve and mineral resource estimates are
estimated in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 - Standards
of Disclosure for Mineral Projects. Unless otherwise noted, such
mineral reserve and mineral resource estimates are as of December
31, 2023.
Endnotes
1 Scenario assumes an indicative production
profile for Reko Diq and Lumwana, both of which are conceptual in
nature. Does not include Fourmile. Refer to the below table for the
complete list of Barrick’s outlook assumptions.
Key Outlook Assumptions |
2024 |
2025 |
2026+ |
Gold Price ($/oz) |
1,900 |
1,300 |
1,300 |
Copper Price ($/lb) |
3.50 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
Oil Price (WTI) ($/barrel) |
80 |
70 |
70 |
AUD Exchange Rate (AUD:USD) |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
ARS Exchange Rate (USD:ARS) |
800 |
800 |
800 |
CAD Exchange Rate (USD:CAD) |
1.30 |
1.30 |
1.30 |
CLP Exchange Rate (USD:CLP) |
900 |
900 |
900 |
EUR Exchange Rate (EUR:USD) |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.20 |
|
|
|
|
Gold equivalent ounces calculated from our
copper assets are calculated using a gold price of $1,300/oz and
copper price of $3.00/lb. Barrick’s ten-year indicative production
profile for gold equivalent ounces is based on the following
assumptions:
Barrick’s five-year indicative outlook is based
on our current operating asset portfolio, sustaining projects in
progress and exploration/mineral resource management initiatives in
execution. This outlook is based on our current reserves and
resources and assumes that we will continue to be able to convert
resources into reserves. Additional asset optimization, further
exploration growth, new project initiatives and divestitures are
not included. For the company’s gold and copper segments, and where
applicable for a specific region, this indicative outlook is
subject to change and assumes the following: new open pit
production permitted and commencing at Hemlo in the second half of
2025, allowing three years for permitting and two years for
pre-stripping prior to first ore production in 2027; Tongon will
enter care and maintenance by 2027; and production from the
Zaldívar CuproChlor® Chloride Leach Project (Antofagasta is the
operator of Zaldívar).
Our five-year indicative outlook excludes:
production from Fourmile; Pierina, and Golden Sunlight, both of
which are currently in care and maintenance; and production from
long-term greenfield optionality from Donlin, Pascua-Lama, Norte
Abierto and Alturas.
Barrick’s ten-year indicative production profile
is subject to change and is based on the same assumptions as the
current five-year outlook detailed above, except that the
subsequent five years of the ten-year outlook assumes attributable
production from Fourmile as well as exploration and mineral
resource management projects in execution at Nevada Gold Mines and
Hemlo.
Barrick’s five-year and ten-year production
profile in this presentation also assumes an indicative gold and
copper production profile for Reko Diq and an indicative copper
production profile for the Lumwana Super Pit expansion, both of
which are conceptual in nature.
2 A Tier One Gold Asset is an asset with a
$1,300/oz reserve with potential for 5 million ounces to support a
minimum 10-year life, annual production of at least 500,000 ounces
of gold and with all-in sustaining costs per ounce in the lower
half of the industry cost curve. Tier One Assets must be located in
a world class geological district with potential for organic
reserve growth and long-term geologically driven addition.
3 Refer to the Technical Report on the Cortez
Complex, Lander and Eureka Counties, State of Nevada, USA, dated
December 31, 2021, and filed on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and
EDGAR at www.sec.gov on March 18, 2022.
4 Indicative production profiles from Fourmile
and Lumwana and recovered production profiles from Reko Diq are
conceptual in nature and subject to change following completion of
Fourmile's pre-feasibility study, Lumwana's feasibility study and
Reko Diq's updated feasibility study, respectively. Fourmile is
currently 100% owned by Barrick. As previously disclosed, Barrick
anticipates Fourmile being contributed to the Nevada Gold Mines
joint venture, at fair market value, if certain criteria are
met.
5 “14 million ounce Leeville project” refers to
total historical gold production of the Leeville Complex from 2005
to 2023 of 8.5 million ounces (100% basis) plus estimated year-end
2023 probable mineral reserves of the Leeville Complex of 5.4
million ounces of gold (100% basis).
Estimates of Leeville Complex mineral reserves
as of December 31, 2023 on a 100% basis: Probable mineral reserves
of 20 million tonnes grading 8.48g/t, representing 5.4 million
ounces of gold. Currently, no proven mineral reserves are reported
for Leeville Complex. Leeville Complex comprises:
- Pete Bajo: Probable mineral reserves of 2.0 million tonnes
grading 7.39g/t, representing 0.47 million ounces of gold
- Rita K: Probable mineral reserves of 3.5 million tonnes grading
6.26g/t, representing 0.70 million ounces of gold
- Leeville: Probable mineral reserves of 14 million tonnes
grading 9.17g/t, representing 4.2 million ounces of gold
6 Proven and probable reserve gains calculated from cumulative
net change in reserves from year end 2019 to 2023. Reserve
replacement percentage is calculated from the cumulative net change
in reserves from year end 2019 to 2023 divided by the cumulative
depletion in reserves from year end 2019 to 2023 as shown in the
table below.
Year |
Attributable P&P Gold(Moz) |
Attributable Gold Acquisition & Divestments
(Moz) |
Attributable GoldDepletion (Moz) |
Attributable Gold NetChange (Moz) |
2019a |
71 |
- |
- |
- |
2020b |
68 |
(2.2) |
(5.5) |
4.2 |
2021c |
69 |
(0.91) |
(5.4) |
8.1 |
2022d |
76 |
- |
(4.8) |
12 |
2023e |
77 |
- |
(4.6) |
5 |
2019-2023 Total |
N/A |
(3.1) |
(20) |
29 |
Totals may not appear to sum correctly due to rounding. |
|
Attributable acquisitions and divestments
includes the following: a decrease of 2.2 Moz in proven and
probable gold reserves from December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2020,
as a result of the divestiture of Barrick's Massawa gold project
effective March 4, 2020; and a decrease of 0.91 Moz in proven and
probable gold reserves from December 31, 2020 to December 31, 2021,
as a result of the change in Barrick’s ownership interest in
Porgera from 47.5% to 24.5% and the net impact of the asset
exchange of Lone Tree to i-80 Gold for the remaining 50% of South
Arturo that Nevada Gold Mines did not already own.
All estimates are estimated in accordance with
National Instrument 43-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Mineral
Projects as required by Canadian securities regulatory
authorities.
- Estimates as of December 31, 2019, unless otherwise noted.
Proven reserves of 280 million tonnes grading 2.42 g/t,
representing 22 million ounces of gold and Probable reserves of
1,000 million tonnes grading 1.48 g/t, representing 49 million
ounces of gold.
- Estimates as of December 31, 2020, unless otherwise noted.
Proven reserves of 280 million tonnes grading 2.37g/t, representing
21 million ounces of gold and Probable reserves of 990 million
tonnes grading 1.46g/t, representing 47 million ounces of
gold.
- Estimates as of December 31, 2021, unless otherwise noted.
Proven mineral reserves of 240 million tonnes grading 2.20g/t,
representing 17 million ounces of gold and Probable reserves of
1,000 million tonnes grading 1.60g/t, representing 53 million
ounces of gold.
- Estimates as of December 31, 2022, unless otherwise noted.
Proven mineral reserves of 260 million tonnes grading 2.26g/t,
representing 19 million ounces of gold and Probable reserves of
1,200 million tonnes grading 1.53g/t, representing 57 million
ounces of gold.
- Estimates are as of December 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted.
Proven mineral reserves of 250 million tonnes grading 1.85g/t,
representing 15 million ounces of gold. Probable reserves of 1,200
million tonnes grading 1.61g/t, representing 61 million ounces of
gold
Barrick Market Capi |
|
|
$36.5bn |
|
AnalystConsensus NAVii |
Market BasedP/NAV Multiple |
Implied Valueiv |
Nevada Gold Mines (61.5% share) |
$13.1bn |
1.86xiii |
$24.4bn |
|
|
|
|
Barrick Copper Assets (including Reko Diq 50% share
& Lumwana expansion) |
$8.0bn |
At Least 1.1xv |
At least $8.8bn |
Combined Implied Value of NGM & Copper Assets |
|
At least $33.2bn |
Implied Value of Rest of Barrick |
|
0.21x |
$3.3bn |
|
|
|
|
i. Per CIBC Mining Comps as of September 13,
2024.ii. Per CIBC Mining Comps as of September 13, 2024, corporate
adjustments apportioned across assets proportional to NAV.iii.
Based on Agnico’s P/NAV multiple, per CIBC Mining Comps as of
September 13, 2024.iv. Implied value equal to analyst NAV times
the market based P/NAV multiple.v. In line with the copper peer
average of 1.1x, per CIBC Mining Comps as of September 13,
2024.Data sources: Company Disclosure, Fraser Institute and S&P
CapitalIQ.
Cautionary Statement on
Forward-Looking InformationCertain information contained
or incorporated by reference in this presentation, including any
information as to our strategy, projects, plans or future financial
or operating performance, constitutes “forward-looking statements”.
All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are
forward-looking statements. The words “expect”, “strategy”,
“target”, “guidance”, “ramp up”, “design”, “project”, “continue”,
“additional”, “growth”, “potential”, “future”, “focus”, “on track”,
“developing”, “scheduled”, “in the making”, “will”, “can”, “could”
and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. In
particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements
including, without limitation, with respect to: Barrick’s
forward-looking production guidance, including our five and ten
year outlooks, and anticipated production growth from Barrick’s
organic project pipeline and reserve replacement; the estimated net
asset value of our portfolio, including Reko Diq and the Lumwana
Super Pit expansion, and the market based P/NAV multiples at which
these assets would trade and implied value; the financial
performance of the Lumwana Super Pit expansion; the potential to
increase reserves at Carlin two to three times from exploration and
the ability to extend its life of mine; estimates of future costs
and projected future cash flows, capital, operating and exploration
expenditures and mine life and production rates; material increases
in production volumes at Pueblo Viejo, Porgera and Lumwana; our
ability to convert resources into reserves and replace reserves net
of depletion from production; mine life and production rates; our
plans and expected completion and benefits of our growth projects,
including the ramp up at Goldrush, timing for the pre-feasibility
study decision and anticipated gold production at Fourmile,
anticipated annual production, targeted first production and
completion of the feasibility study at Reko Diq, the Pueblo Viejo
plant expansion and the anticipated timeline for the completion of
a feasibility study and first production for the Lumwana Super Pit
and its ability to extend its life of mine; estimated copper
production at Reko Diq and from the Lumwana Super Pit expansion,
including projected mining rates; estimates of future costs and
projected future cash flows, capital, operating and exploration
expenditures and mine life and production rates; the potential for
Reko Diq, Lumwana and Fourmile to become Tier One assets and the
potential for Lumwana to become a top 25 copper asset; Barrick’s
global exploration strategy and planned exploration activities;
Barrick’s copper strategy; our pipeline of high confidence projects
at or near existing operations; potential mineralization and metal
or mineral recoveries; joint ventures and partnerships; Barrick’s
strategy, plans, targets and goals in respect of environmental and
social governance issues; and expectations regarding future price
assumptions, financial performance and other outlook or
guidance.
Forward-looking statements are necessarily based
upon a number of estimates and assumptions including material
estimates and assumptions related to the factors set forth below
that, while considered reasonable by the Company as at the date of
this presentation in light of management’s experience and
perception of current conditions and expected developments, are
inherently subject to significant business, economic and
competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Known and unknown
factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those
projected in the forward-looking statements and undue reliance
should not be placed on such statements and information. Such
factors include, but are not limited to: the potential to convert
all or part of the mineral resource for the Super Pit expansion
into a mineral reserve following the completion of the feasibility
study; risks related to competition in the mining industry;
fluctuations in the spot and forward price of gold, copper or
certain other commodities (such as silver, diesel fuel, natural gas
and electricity); risks associated with projects in the early
stages of evaluation and for which additional engineering and other
analysis is required; risks related to the possibility that future
exploration results will not be consistent with the Company’s
expectations, that quantities or grades of reserves will be
diminished, and that resources may not be converted to reserves;
risks associated with the fact that certain of the initiatives
described in this presentation are still in the early stages and
may not materialize; changes in mineral production performance,
exploitation and exploration successes; risks that exploration data
may be incomplete and considerable additional work may be required
to complete further evaluation, including but not limited to
drilling, engineering and socioeconomic studies and investment; the
speculative nature of mineral exploration and development; lack of
certainty with respect to foreign legal systems, corruption and
other factors that are inconsistent with the rule of law;
disruption of supply routes which may cause delays in construction
and mining activities, including disruptions in the supply of key
mining inputs due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and
conflicts in the Middle East; risk of loss due to acts of war,
terrorism, sabotage and civil disturbances; risks associated with
artisanal and illegal mining; changes in national and local
government legislation, taxation, controls or regulations and/or
changes in the administration of laws, policies and practices;
expropriation or nationalization of property and political or
economic developments in Canada, the United States or other
countries in which Barrick does or may carry on business in the
future; risks relating to political instability in certain of the
jurisdictions in which Barrick operates; timing of receipt of, or
failure to comply with, necessary permits and approvals;
non-renewal of or failure to obtain key licenses by governmental
authorities; failure to comply with environmental and health and
safety laws and regulations; increased costs and physical and
transition risks related to climate change, including extreme
weather events, resource shortages, emerging policies and increased
regulations relating to greenhouse gas emission levels, energy
efficiency and reporting of risks; Barrick’s ability to achieve its
sustainability goals, including its climate-related goals and
greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets; the liability
associated with risks and hazards in the mining industry, and the
ability to maintain insurance to cover such losses; damage to the
Company’s reputation due to the actual or perceived occurrence of
any number of events, including negative publicity with respect to
the Company’s handling of environmental matters or dealings with
community groups, whether true or not; risks related to operations
near communities that may regard Barrick’s operations as being
detrimental to them; litigation and legal and administrative
proceedings; operating or technical difficulties in connection with
mining or development activities, including geotechnical
challenges, tailings dam and storage facilities failures, and
disruptions in the maintenance or provision of required
infrastructure and information technology systems; increased costs,
delays, suspensions and technical challenges associated with the
construction of capital projects; risks associated with working
with partners in jointly controlled assets; risks related to
disruption of supply routes which may cause delays in construction
and mining activities; risks associated with Barrick’s
infrastructure, information technology systems and the
implementation of Barrick’s technological initiatives, including
risks related to cybersecurity incidents, including those caused by
computer viruses, malware, ransomware and other cyberattacks, or
similar information technology system failures, delays and/or
disruptions; employee relations including loss of key employees;
availability and increased costs associated with mining inputs and
labor; and risks associated with diseases, epidemics and pandemics.
In addition, there are risks and hazards associated with the
business of mineral exploration, development and mining, including
environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual or unexpected
formations, pressures, cave-ins, flooding and gold bullion, copper
cathode or gold or copper concentrate losses (and the risk of
inadequate insurance, or inability to obtain insurance, to cover
these risks).
Many of these uncertainties and contingencies
can affect our actual results and could cause actual results to
differ materially from those expressed or implied in any
forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, us. Readers
are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of
future performance. All of the forward-looking statements made in
this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements.
Specific reference is made to the most recent Form 40-F/Annual
Information Form on file with the SEC and Canadian provincial
securities regulatory authorities for a more detailed discussion of
some of the factors underlying forward-looking statements and the
risks that may affect Barrick’s ability to achieve the expectations
set forth in the forward-looking statements contained in this
presentation.
We disclaim any intention or obligation to
update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result
of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required
by applicable law.
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