The Economist: Americas long-ailing manufacturers are fired up
Business 27 March 2021 Edition
Factory owners are
benefiting from the greatest convergence of pro-industry forces in decades
On March 21st Canadian Pacific
Railway unveiled a $25bn bid for Kansas City Southern, a smaller American rival. The biggest-ever tie-up of freight railways would, if blessed by antitrust authorities, leave the merged firm with tracks
linking Canada with Mexico, via the entire length of Americas contiguous states. It would also drive what Canadian Pacifics boss, Keith Creel, enthusiastically dubs an industrial renaissance. The prospects are
compelling for growth across the industrial heartland, Mr Creel says.
Whether or not he is right about the future, the deal presents a huge bet
that this renaissance is already under way in the present. For a change, investors seem to agree. Having lagged behind the s&p 500 index of large listed companies over the past five years, American industrial groups have outperformed the
benchmark so far this year (see chart). After flowing mainly to firms that peddle mostly ethereal data, money is pouring into those that make things subject to the laws of gravity.
Leading indices of American purchasing managers, which survey private-sector firms regularly, are surging. On March 24th ihs Markit, a research firm, released
one confirming that goods producers saw the fastest growth in new orders in over six years. s&p Global, a credit-rating agency, predicts that after an abysmal year in which revenues fell by 8-10%,
Americas capital-goods sector will see sales rise by 5% in 2021. Worries about weak demand for products are being replaced in chief executives minds by fear of supply bottlenecks, from worldwide chip shortages to the freak traffic jam in
the Suez Canal caused by a wayward container ship that may block a critical artery of global commerce for days.
Still, short-term supply niggles are a
better problem to have than falling demand. s&p Global expects American light-vehicle sales to rebound from 14.5m in 2020 to 16.6m this year, notwithstanding the shortage of chips that cars increasingly rely on to keep running. ceos across
Americas industrial heartland are looking ebullient. Justin Rose of the Boston Consulting Group (bcg) sees evidence of a real bounce-back among such companies. They are running factories as hard as they can, he says,
with order books sold out well into next year.
Chad Moutray, chief economist of the National Association of Manufacturers, reports that
nearly 90% of members surveyed recently by the trade association were bullish about their businesses outlook for the next 12 months, the highest in two years. Two-thirds foresee revenues returning to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year, as new orders, production and employment all pick up.
Chief executives are
putting their money where their mouths are. On March 23rd Intels new boss, Pat Gelsinger, said the chipmaker would spend $20bn on two factories in Arizona. Scott Davis of Melius, a research firm, reckons that capital expenditure at several
dozen leading American industrial companies he follows, including icons such as Caterpillar and Stanley Black & Decker, are set to rise by 20% on average this year. In February the index of capital spending maintained by Morgan Stanley, an
investment bank, reached a high last seen in July 2019. Goldman Sachs, another bank, forecasts that such spending at s&p 500 firms will reach $740bn this year, above the $731bn in pre-pandemic 2019. In
2021 Americas leading firms will, Goldman Sachs predicts, spend more on capital goods, research and development than on dividends and share buy-backs.
Having sunk amid covid-19, Americas factory output was perhaps inevitably due for a sharp rebound. Vaccines are
boosting consumer confidence and raising hopes that the economy may reopen fully soon. President Joe Bidens $1.9trn stimulus package, coming on top of record levels of household savings, will leave Americans with more money to splurge on cars,
electronics and other goods.