Disappointing Jobless Claims Report - Analyst Blog
May 05 2011 - 4:58AM
Zacks
The market is getting nervous about the economic recovery. Concerns
that the first quarter softness may carry into the second quarter
and beyond have been weighing on stocks lately. Economists have
generally maintained their GDP growth forecasts at this stage. But
softish economic readings, such as yesterday's ISM/ADP and today's
Jobless Claims reports, increase the odds that we may start seeing
those estimates start coming down in the coming days and weeks.
It is with this nervous backdrop that the market is looking forward
to tomorrow's non-farm payroll report for April. In addition to
some pockets of strength, particularly on the manufacturing side,
the most reassuring sign on the recovery front has been the
emerging signs of a labor market turnaround over the last few
months. We may have to scale down our economic growth outlook if
this favorable labor market trend fizzles out.
Today's weak Jobless Claims report only adds to those concerns. We
had a huge 43,000 jump in claims during the week to 474,000, with
the 4-week average increasing to 431,250. The Jobless Claims report
reversed course a couple of weeks back after showing steady
improvements over the preceeding months. And today's awful number
is along the negative trend of the last few weeks.
Elsewhere, we got solid April same-store sales reports this
morning, helped in no small measure by the delayed Easter holiday.
Costco (COST),
Macy's (M) and
Limited Brands (LTD) came out with better than
expected numbers, while
Target (TGT) and
Gap (GPS) came modestly short.
On the earnings front, we got a solid earnings beat from
GM (GM), though the automaker came short of
top-line expectations once one-time gains are excluded.
DirectTV (DTV) beat on the top- and bottom line,
while
Sara Lee (SLE) came modestly short of
expectations.
The major news of the day is the extremely weak read on the Jobless
Claims front. Notwithstanding the retail sales strength, this
report will be the key stock market driver today as we wait for
tomorrow's jobs report.
COSTCO WHOLE CP (COST): Free Stock Analysis Report
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GAP INC (GPS): Free Stock Analysis Report
LIMITED INC (LTD): Free Stock Analysis Report
MACYS INC (M): Free Stock Analysis Report
SARA LEE (SLE): Free Stock Analysis Report
TARGET CORP (TGT): Free Stock Analysis Report
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