Express Scripts Stands at Neutral - Analyst Blog
November 23 2011 - 11:39AM
Zacks
We continue to have a Neutral recommendation on Express
Scripts Inc. (ESRX) with a target price of $46.00. The
company functions under two segments: Pharmacy Benefit Management
(PBM) and Emerging Markets (EM).
With the intention of growing its PBM business, Express Scripts
completed two acquisitions over the past few years. In July 2008,
the company acquired the Pharmacy Services Division of Medical
Services Company. Medical Services Company was a leader in
providing PBM services to clients providing workers compensation
benefits.
In December 2009, Express Scripts acquired NextRx,
WellPoint Inc.’s (WLP) PBM segment. The deal,
which significantly expanded Express Scripts PBM business, also
includes a 10-year contract under which Express Scripts will
provide PBM services to WellPoint and its designated
affiliates.
Moreover, in July 2011, Express Scripts announced its intention
to acquire healthcare company Medco Health Solutions,
Inc. (MHS) for $29.1 billion in cash and stock. We believe
that this acquisition, which is expected in the first half of 2012,
will generate more synergies for the two PBMs and help lower the
cost of prescription drugs.
Express Scripts stands to benefit from increased generic
utilization, shift toward mail orders, strong specialty growth and
an aging population. The use of generic drugs should increase
significantly over the next few years as several branded
prescription drugs are scheduled to lose patent protection,
including Pfizer’s (PFE) Lipitor (November 2011).
Increased generic uptake and higher use of mail orders should help
the company improve its margins and profitability.
Additionally, we believe Express Scripts is well positioned to
benefit from healthcare reform initiatives like broader insurance
coverage, the potential approval of a pathway for bio-similars and
incentives supporting the utilization of information technology
systems. The implementation of these initiatives should help drive
growth at Express Scripts.
We are concerned about the company’s dependence on a small
number of customers for a significant part of its revenues. The top
five clients of Express Scripts collectively represented 55.2%,
23.7%, and 18.2% of revenues during 2010, 2009 and 2008,
respectively. Considering that this percentage has been increasing
each year, the loss of a significant customer would have an adverse
impact on the company s revenues and operations.
Moreover, we believe that the implementation of proposals to
control health care costs in response to increases in prescription
drug utilization rates and drug prices would have an adverse impact
on the company s operations. These proposals include single-payer
government funded health care programs and price controls on
prescription drugs.
We expect investor focus to remain on the acquisition of Medco
Health, which is expected to generate $4 billion annually in cash
from operations, once completely integrated with Express
Scripts.
EXPRESS SCRIPTS (ESRX): Free Stock Analysis Report
MEDCO HLTH SOL (MHS): Free Stock Analysis Report
PFIZER INC (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report
WELLPOINT INC (WLP): Free Stock Analysis Report
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