PJC Piper Jaffray Companies

By Timothy Puko, Sarah McFarlane and Jenny W. Hsu 

Oil prices rose Monday on renewed hope that major exporters might make progress on a deal to limit production and help whittle down the glut that has dragged down the market for more than two years.

The United Arab Emirates' oil minister has posted support for a deal on social media and told reporters his country would support limits on production. That has some traders thinking a deal is slightly more likely than previously expected, analysts and brokers said.

"Odds of a symbolic catalyst emerging from (the) OPEC meeting have improved, from negligible to possible," Guy Baber, analyst at Piper Jaffray Cos.' Simmons & Co. International said in a note to clients Monday. "However...actually accelerating the physical oil market rebalancing remains unlikely."

Light, sweet crude for November delivery settled up $1.45, or 3.3%, to $45.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its fifth gain in six sessions. Brent, the global benchmark, gained $1.46, or 3.2%, to $47.35 a barrel, its largest daily gains since Sept. 8.

Prices also rose Monday after data provider Genscape said stockpiles at Cushing, Okla., shrank by 276,000 barrels from Sept. 16 to Sept. 23, according to a person who had reviewed the report. Federal data had already showed inventories fell sharply for the previous three-straight weeks, a much more important sign for oil than news coming from OPEC leaders, Brian Kessens, portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors said in his firm's podcast.

But many brokers and analysts said traders are focused intensely on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as leaders get ready to meet informally during an energy summit in Algiers. It is likely to keep up the volatile swings from last week, which ended with a 4% loss on Friday after Saudi Arabia said it didn't expect OPEC and other prominent non-cartel producers, such as Russia, to clinch a deal on Wednesday.

Despite that setback, some believe OPEC is under increasing pressure to take action to support prices.

"Whichever way you slice it, OPEC has to cut production or else the market will not draw down the overhang accumulated over 2014 and 2015 even next year," said consultancy Energy Aspects.

Since OPEC announced the meeting back in August, U.S. oil prices have seesawed between $43 and $49, largely driven by comments by different oil ministers and leaders.

For more than two years, global oil markets have been beleaguered by oversupply that has kept prices below $100. As major producers continue to prioritize market share over prices, many analysts don't expect to see a deal this week. OPEC has already failed at several attempts to impose some sort of production cap this past year.

"Once bitten, twice shy. We have been burned before and we are not seeing any solid evidence that this time they will agree to a deal," said Ben Le Brun, a market analyst at the Australia-based OptionsXpress. "We are all approaching this meeting with caution."

OPEC's own monthly report in August noted non-OPEC supply will likely gain by 350,000 barrel a day in 2017, an upward revision from the previous estimate due to the stronger-than-expected resilience from the U.S. shale producers. According to industry group Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by two to 418 in the week ended Sept. 16.

The oil-rig count has generally been rising since the beginning of the summer, as many oil producers believe drilling in some parts of the U.S. can be profitable even with oil prices in the range of $40 to $50 a barrel over the past six months.

Another risk is the recent resumption of oil production and exports in Nigeria and Libya, which should lead supplies higher, said Barnabas Gan, an economist at OCBC.

"Even if a production freeze agreement were signed, this would change very little from a fundamental perspective, given that most OPEC members are already pumping close to their peak capacity," said BMI Research.

Gasoline futures gained 2.55 cents, or 1.9%, to $1.4024 a gallon, a one-week high. Diesel futures gained 4.17 cent, or 3%, to $1.449 a gallon, its biggest daily gains since Sept. 8.

--Benoit Faucon and Summer Said contributed to this article.

Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com, Sarah McFarlane at sarah.mcfarlane@wsj.com and Jenny W. Hsu at jenny.hsu@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 26, 2016 15:32 ET (19:32 GMT)

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