January – October sales were moderate, but December auto
sales are expected to build on the relatively strong November
result.
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Dec. 19,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- December U.S. auto sales are
estimated to hit 1.45 million units, translating to an estimated
sales pace of 16.5 million units (seasonally adjusted annual
rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. This would
match the month prior reading and result in a fourth quarter
selling rate average of 16.4 million units, a step up from the 15.6
million units averaged over the previous three quarters of the
year, and the highest quarterly average for this metric since Q2
2021. But it also points to likely volatility ahead as we
move into 2025.
Looking forward, S&P Global Mobility projects US sales
volumes to reach 16.18 million units in 2025, an estimated increase
of 1.2% from the projected 2024 level of nearly 16.0 million units,
as an uncertain environment remains for auto sales levels.
"2025 brings with it mixed opportunities and uncertainty for the
auto industry as a new administration and policy proposals take
hold," said Chris Hopson, manager of
North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global
Mobility. "Unfortunately, the new vehicle affordability issues that
coalesced to constrain auto demand levels for much of 2024 will not
be resolved quickly in 2025. Vehicle pricing levels are
expected to decline but remain high; interest rates are expected to
shift further downwards, but inflation levels are anticipated to
remain sticky, and new vehicle inventory should also progress, but
careful management is expected too. Combined with an uneasy
consumer, we project this translates to mild growth prospects for
auto sales."
|
|
|
|
|
|
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Dec 24
(Est)
|
Nov
24
|
Dec
23
|
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,455,000
|
1,360,060
|
1,458,953
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
16.5
|
16.5
|
15.9
|
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
13.3
|
13.5
|
12.8
|
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.2
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data, BEV
share of sales has been above 8% every month since June, reflecting
progress from levels earlier in the year. BEV share in September
reached a level of 8.6%, with October estimated to have remained
above 8% again. Despite lower inventory levels for many EVs,
November and December could realize BEV share advances in
anticipation of Federal EV incentives being withdrawn in 2025.
S&P Global Mobility projects December BEV share of more than
9.0%.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
