Sempra News - SREA

LNG Facilities a key topic of Wall Street Transcript Exploration & Production Issue
Wednesday February 1, 3:35 pm ET

67 WALL STREET, New York--February 1, 2006--The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Integrated Oil & Gas E&P issue, a report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 106-page feature contains an expert roundtable forum of leading industry analysts, 4 interviews with analysts on specific sectors, and industry commentary through in-depth interviews with top management from 20 firms. The issue also contains an "Off-The-Record" Review of management by management. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.
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Topics covered: Outlook for oil and gas prices, Drilling activity outlook, Hedging activity, Management performance, Production-sharing contracts, Mergers & Acquisitions, Reinvestment of capital, Environmental issues, Potential of ANWR, Demand destruction, Natural gas exploration, Geopolitical risk factors, Gulf Coast hurricane impact, Supply and demand for LNG, Pipeline sector.

Companies include: Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC), Abraxas Petroleum Corporation (ABP), Apache Corporation (APA), ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (ATPG), Berry Petroleum Company (BRY), BP (BP), Burlington Resources, Inc. (BR), Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. (CRZO), Deep Well Oil & Gas Inc. (DWOG), Devon Energy Corporation (DVN), ConocoPhillips (COP), Encana Corporation (ECA), Equitable Resources (EQT), ExxonMobil (XOM), Murphy Oil (MUR), Petrohawk Energy (HAWK), Ultra Petroleum (UPL), Houston Exploration (THX), Newfield Exploration Company (NFX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Energy Partners Ltd. (EPL), Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (GDP), Williams Companies (WMB), Questar (STR), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Sempra (SRE), AGL Resources (ATG), Northwest Natural (NWN), Atmos (ATO), KeySpan (KSE), Chevron (CVX), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), Newfield Exploration Company (NFX), NGAS Resources Inc. (NGAS), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Peyto Energy Trust (PEY:TSX), Range Resources Corporation (RRC), Swift Energy Company (SFY), Petrel Resources PLC (PET.L), Royale Energy Inc. (ROYL), Western Gas Resources INC. (WGR), Storm Cat Energy Corporation (SCU), Vaalco Energy Inc. (EGY), W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI), Tri-Valley Corporation (TIV), Kinder Morgan (KMI) and McMoRan Exploration (MMR). Analysts Include: Raymond Deacon, Harris Nesbitt Corp.; C. Van Levy, Dahlman Rose & Company, Bruce Lanni, A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc., Fadel Gheit, Oppenheimer & Co., Faisel Kahn, Citigroup Global Markets, Anatol Feygin, Bank of America Securities.

In the following brief excerpt from the 106 page report, Faisel Kahn discusses the outlook for developing LNG facilities and also the prospects for investors.

TWST: In terms of LNG, is the constraining factor the infrastructure or the availability?

Mr. Khan: The constraining factor is building the liquefaction infrastructure. So the stranded gas is certainly there, but the limiting factor is going to be how fast these countries that own the stranded gas are going to be able to bring those facilities online. And that's basically a choice that they can make at any point in time, and it also might be a way for them to maximize the value of their stranded gas. They won't bring too much supply online all at once because that would drive down the price of LNG. There are enough tankers being built and there are enough proposed regas facilities in the US, Europe and the Far East. So the limiting factor clearly is going to be how fast these countries that own the stranded gas are going to want to develop those reserves.

TWST: And that's a political decision?

Mr. Khan: I think it's economic and somewhat political. I think economic because you don't want to open the spigot too much, otherwise the price will come down. In order to maximize the price of LNG, you want to have an adequate supply of liquefaction in the market, but not an excess amount of supply.

TWST: As you say, the US market is stable and attractive. What's the difficulty of getting the offloading facilities built here?

Mr. Khan: We are seeing new regas facilities being built in the US right now. Right now, Cheniere has two facilities under construction in the Gulf of Mexico, one at Sabine and one at Freeport. You have Sempra that's got a facility under construction in Cameron, Louisiana, and one on the West Coast in Mexico. You also have Exxon Mobil (XOM) that received permission to build a facility in Louisiana, and Occidental (OXY) that's building a facility in Texas. So facilities are being developed and built. The existing facilities in the US along the Eastern Seaboard and in Louisiana are also expanding their current facilities. So I don't think that there is going to be a problem in terms of building these regas facilities in the US. In our models, we are saying that by 2010, the US is going to need about 10 Bcf a day of baseload LNG. We think that by 2010, there will probably be a total of 20 Bcf a day of capacity within the Continental US. So there is more than enough regas capacity for the base amount of LNG demand we need.

TWST: As that builds up and you get some excess out, is that going to put pressure on pricing?

Mr. Khan: You've got 10 Bcf a day of demand for LNG, but you're also competing for some of that LNG demand across the globe. What happens is that you start to look at the highest cost natural gas producer in the US and compare his price to produce domestic gas to LNG prices around the globe. There has to be some equilibrium price that is met between this marginal producer and LNG to meet supply in the US, Europe and the Far East. So if we look at the US, that marginal well is going to be in the Gulf of Mexico. Assuming we get our allocation of global LNG supplies in the US, the US is still going to need to continue to drill for natural gas. You are still going to need to drill for gas in the Gulf of Mexico, and finding and development costs in the Gulf are fairly high. So I think a $5.50 or $6 NYMEX gas price would make sense to continue to produce gas out of the Gulf of Mexico. But to the extent that global prices are volatile, that could have a different impact on overall pricing in the US and abroad. So essentially you could continue to have a volatile pricing environment in the US. If there is not enough LNG across the globe, then the US will end up competing for LNG based on price.

TWST: When you talk with investors at this point, what's the level of interest you're finding in this space?

Mr. Khan: Generally, in our specific space, there seems to be a tremendous amount of renewed interest in this sector. After the merchant energy collapse, a lot of investors had basically ignored these names for a long time. But, most of these companies are still major pipeline companies and given the changing dynamics of flow of natural gas in the US, capital needs to be committed to move more gas out of the Rockies and build more LNG facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Many of the companies in our sector have tremendous capital expansion programs.

If you look at Sempra, they are building two new LNG terminals with a third one in the permitting stage. They're also building a pipeline from the Rockies all the way to the East Coast and that's a $4.5 billion project. Unlike in the past where earnings were driven through trading and marketing, today earnings are growing through expansion capital on the pipeline system, rate base at the gas and electric utilities, and increased drilling.

TWST: So getting back to basics.

Mr. Khan: Yes. They have been back to basics for a long time now. It's back to basics, but now you've got a growing industry. So if you went back to 2002 through 2004, you had declining capital expansion programs every year in the industry. We went from roughly $4 billion in capital expansion programs on the entire North American pipeline system down to less than $2 billion in 2004. As you look at 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, all those numbers are in a steep incline right now and that should continue throughout the next decade. You have the Mackenzie pipeline getting built from Northern Canada, an Alaska pipeline getting built, LNG terminals getting built and new Rockies pipelines getting built. There is an enormous amount of capital being deployed to this industry.

The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This 106-page special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online .

The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations.

For Information on subscribing to The Wall Street Transcript, please call 800/246-7673

This information is provided solely for informational purposes. Although Southern California Gas Co. (SoCalGas) and San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) have used reasonable efforts to assure its accuracy, no representation is made that the contents are free from error or suitable for use for any particular purpose. SoCalGas and SDG&E assume no responsibility for use of, or reliance on, this information by any party, and specifically advise such parties to discuss any decisions or actions related hereto with their own advisors and experts.

Prices
According to the Dow Jones Report, May 10, natural gas prices have increased because of high crude oil prices and weather forecasts indicating warming in the Northeast and Midcontinent.

The Associated Press, May 10, reported that world oil prices rose strongly amid forecasts of higher global demand later this year that could outstrip supply despite increased output by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Prices were winning support also from concern about supplies of gasoline, as the approaching American driving season put the spotlight on forthcoming US crude inventories data.

According to Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), in April, high crude oil prices, combined with the unusually cold March weather for much of the nation, increased heating demand and boosted spot prices for natural gas to levels above $7.00.

The May 10 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook says that although natural gas storage remains above the 5-year average, high world oil prices, continued strength in the economy, the expectation that Pacific Northwest hydroelectric resources will be well below normal through mid-summer, and limited prospects for growth in domestic natural gas production all support the natural gas price projections.

EIA projects that Henry Hub prices will remain relatively high, with averages of over $7.00 per mcf in 2005 and 2006.

The Dow Jones Report, May 9, reported that Western wholesale spot power prices remain high because of a rise in natural gas prices and nuclear plant outages. In addition, moderate weather prevailed through most of the West otherwise prices would have been higher to reflect normal weather.

The following tables and charts show the current prices and price trends:

Natural Gas Prices ($/mmbtu) California-Arizona border (closest trading hub to Southern California) Henry Hub (Major gas trading center in United States, located in Louisiana) San Juan (One of the producing areas feeding Southern California, located in New Mexico) Rockies (One of the producing areas feeding Southern California, located in Wyoming)

May 10 daily spot-cash gas price* $6.20 $6.69 $5.88 $5.99
Bidweek Gas Price for May** $6.61 $6.77 $6.30 $6.33
Apr. 2005 daily average spot price* $6.70 $7.19 $6.35 $6.49
May 2004 daily average spot price* $5.98 $6.33 $5.45 $5.40
June 2005 future gas price*** $6.28 $6.71 $5.95 $5.96
12-month future average gas price*** $6.94 $6.94 $6.65 $6.58
Sources:
/*Dow Jones, Btu's Daily Gas Wire
**Inside FERC; NGI for Rockies
***NYMEX and Prebon Energy, represents estimation of the market, 05/10/2005
Western Electricity Prices So. Cal. (SP15) On-peak Price ($/MWh) Equivalent gas price at 10,000 HR ($/mmbtu) No. Cal. (NP15) On-peak Price($/MWh) Equivalent gas price at 10,000 HR $/mmbtu)

May 9 daily spot-cash electricity price* $54.52 $5.45 $54.48 $5.45
Apr. 2005 daily average electricity price* $59.18 $5.92 $58.66 $5.87
May 2004 daily average electricity price* $59.43 $5.94 $59.71 $5.97
12 month average future wholesale electricity price** $74.63 $7.46 $71.54 $7.15
Sources:
*Dow Jones, BTU Daily
**Prebon Energy, represents estimation of the market, 05/09/2005
Oil Prices ($/Bbl) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil
May 9 daily WTI oil price* $52.01
Apr. 2005 daily average price* $53.04
May 2004 daily average price* $40.25
NYMEX crude contract for June** $54.45
Sources:
*Dow Jones
**NYMEX

Wholesale Natural Gas and Electricity Price Comparison

Natural Gas and Electricity Future Price Outlook

NYMEX Crude (Oil) Futures

Oil Prices vs. Natural Gas Prices

Natural gas

Gas demand

... in U.S.
(source: EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 10, 2005)

Natural gas demand in the U.S. is expected to exhibit an increase of 2.1 percent in 2005.

In 2006, natural gas demand is projected to rise by 2.3 percent due largely to weather-related factors and continued strength in gas-intensive industrial production.

... in Southern California
(source: SoCalGas Preliminary Daily Operating Sheet, as of May 9, 2005)

Southern California Gas Company’s (SoCalGas) May 1-9 daily average total demand is about 3% lower than April's daily average total demand and about the same as May, 2004 usage.

SoCalGas' May daily average demand for gas-fired electricity wholesale generation (EWG) and utility electricity generation (UEG) is about 7% higher than April's EWG/UEG demand and about 24% lower than May, 2004 usage.

Southern California Gas Company’s (SoCalGas) April daily average total demand was about 9% lower than March's daily average total demand and about 4% lower than April, 2004 usage.

SoCalGas' April daily average demand for gas-fired electricity wholesale generation (EWG) and utility electricity generation (UEG) was about 7% lower than March's EWG/UEG demand. SoCalGas' April daily average EWG and UEG demand was about 23% lower than April, 2004 usage mainly due to fewer nuclear plant outages.

Gas supply
National Storage 25.2% above five-year average

EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending Friday, April 29, reported working gas in underground storage increased to 1,455 Bcf. Inventories now stand 25.2 percent above the 5-year average of 1,162 Bcf. Stocks are 238 Bcf higher than last year at this time.

Western storage 14.6% above the five-year average

The same EIA report pegged inventories in the West region at 227 Bcf or 14.6 percent above the 5-year average.

SoCalGas storage levels at 64-percent full
(source: SoCalGas Preliminary Daily Operating Sheet)
As of May 9, 2005, total SoCalGas system storage inventory was 76 Bcf. This is about 22 Bcf higher than storage at the same time last year and about 20 Bcf higher than the prior five-year average levels.

Transwestern Pipeline Expansion start-up
(source: CERA Report, April 25)
The San Juan expansion will provide about 375 million cubic feet per day of additional firm transportation capacity. Transwestern's expansion entails modifications at existing compressor stations and constructing 72.6 miles of underground pipeline from the Blanco Hub located in San Juan County, N.M., to the point of interconnection with Transwestern's mainline. The pipeline expansion went into service May 1.

Production outlook
(source: EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 10, 2005)
Baker Hughes Inc. announced that the North American rig count for the week ending May 6, 2005 was 1,518. This is 33 higher than the prior week and an increase of 180 from last year's count at the same time.

According to Lehman Brothers, as reported in Platts' Gas Daily, April 26, first-quarter production declined 0.3% from the previous quarter but was down a sharp 4.4% form the same period of 2004.

Domestic natural gas production in 2005 is expected to remain near the 2004 level, despite an expected 13-percent increase in gas-directed drilling.

Electricity

Electricity demand reported in California
On May 10, the CAISO projected the peak load at 28,188 MW. The CAISO calls for a Wednesday peak load of 28,828 MW.

California's electricity situation
This summer, southern California may have possible supply shortages and service disruptions under extreme weather conditions, according to a presentation to FERC by its staff on May 4. The presentation is consistent with the ISO and CEC assessments issued earlier this year.

On May 5, the WECC 2005 Summer Assessment of Loads and Resources said, "Although Southern California is an area of concern this summer, it appears that options are available to meet firm load needs during normal summer conditions, as well as unusually hot weather conditions".

Conservation will be very important this summer.

Projected Power Plant Development
According to the Platts' NewGen, April, 2005, since 2001, 41,300 MW of new plants have been built in the Western United States. 12,600 MW of new plants in the West are currently under construction. 7,300 MW of new plants are located in California.

In Southern California, some of the major new plants include:

Calpine's Pastoria Power Plant, 250 MW - started up in May, another 500 megawatts in June, located in Bakersfield.
SCE's Mountainview Power Plant, 1,100 MW, located in San Bernardino (expected in operation closer to year-end),
LADWP's Haynes Plant, 575 MW new unit, located in Seal Beach (started operation)
City of Burbank's Magnolia Plant, 328 MW, located in Burbank (expected to start up in end of June)
City of Vernon's Malburg Plant, 120 MW, located in City of Vernon (expected in early fall)
Sempra's Palomar Plant, 570 MW, located in Escondido (expected in mid-2006)

Projected Power Plant Development

Power Plant Development Charts...click here to see larger view -- in PowerPoint
[click here to see larger image (PowerPoint, size: 468kb)]

Electricity generation plants' outages reported
On May 10, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) reported that 16% percent or 24,476 MW of total WECC electric generation capacity was off-line.

On May 10, the WECC reported that 23 percent or 12,573 MW of total California and Baja California electric generation capacity was off-line. About 12 percent of the capacity off-line (1,547 MW) is served by SoCalGas and San Diego (SDG&E).

Current outages reported by the CA ISO and NRC include:

Mohave coal-fired Unit 1 (130 MW outage) and 2 (60 MW outage), in Nevada, started an unplanned outage on March 8.
Four Corner coal-fired unit 5 (405 MW outage), in New Mexico, reported a planned outage on April 22.
Palo Verde nuclear Unit 2 (1,270 MW outage), in Arizona, started a planned refueling outage on April 2.
Intermountain Power Plant coal-fired Unit 1 (900 MW), in Utah, started a planned outage on May 7.
Columbia Generating nuclear Station (1,158 MW), in Washington started a refueling outage on May 7. The unit should return to service on May 11.
San Onofre nuclear Unit 3 (1,108 MW), in Southern California, was shut down for a maintenance outage on May 5. The unit is now expected to return to service on May 10. The unit will go on line at 20% power (55 MWG) and ramp up at 9% per hour reaching full power on May 11.

Future Nuclear Plant Outages

Unit Plant Location MW Offline Date Offline Date Expected Back Online
Palo Verde Unit 1 Arizona 1270 9/30/2005 11/9/2005
SONGS 2 California 1180 1/3/2006 3/4/2006
SONGS 3 California 1180 4/1/2006 5/1/2006
SONGS 3 California 1180 10/16/2006 12/25/2006
Diablo Canyon Unit 1 California 1100 1/10/2006 2/19/2006
Palo Verde Unit 3 Arizona 1270 3/15/2006 4/24/2006

Electricity transmission facilities out of service
or with limited service reported
On May 10, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) reported the following electricity transmission facilities out of service or limited that impact California:

From 0000-1500 the California Oregon Intertie (Path 66 - COI), a major transmission line that moves power from the Northwest to California, is limited to 4,350 MW north to south and 2,450 MW south to north due to outage of the BPA area resources. From 0500-1900 the COI is further limited to 3,000 MW north to south due to the Round Mountain-Table Mountain #2 500-kV line outage.
From 0000-1500 Pacific DC Intertie (Path 65 - PDCI), a major transmission line that moves power from the Northwest to Southern California, is limited to 2,720 MW north to south and 1,904 MW south to north due to BPA area resources. From 0500-1900 Round Mountain-Table Mountain #2 500-kV line is out of service but there is no additional limitation on the PDCI.
From 0000-2400 the Path 44, to San Onofre nuclear plant, is limited to 1,650 MW north to south due to the Mission-Miguel/Miguel-Sycamore Canyon limits.

Oil
Oil prices expected to stay high
(source: EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 10, 2005)
Monthly average WTI prices are projected to remain above $50 per barrel for the rest of 2005 and 2006.

Several factors have contributed to the recent high crude oil prices and are likely to keep prices at or near present highs:

Worldwide petroleum demand growth is projected to remain robust, despite high oil prices.
Expected growth in non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) supplies is not expected to accommodate worldwide demand growth.
Worldwide spare crude oil production capacity has recently diminished. Only Saudi Arabia has spare production capacity.
Downstream sectors such as refining and shipping are expected to remain tight.
Geo-political risks, such as the continued insurgency in Iraq and political unrest in Nigeria and Venezuela, are expected to keep the uncertainty premium high.

Market Impacts

Hydro
The weighted average runoff forecast for the Western U.S. for Water Year 2005 is 81% of normal. Although this forecast is below average, it is higher than last year's runoff and much higher than the 2001 runoff.

On May 6, the Northwest River Forecast Center's updated runoff forecast was 70% of normal at the Dalles in January through July. Beneficial rains continued during April with warm temperatures. The warm temperatures and rain depleted an already deficient snowpack.

On May 9, the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) predicted the runoff to be at California rivers 117% of normal in April through July.
Winter storms and the healthy Sierra snowpack they produced should help with hydroelectric power generation in the state this summer, especially in Southern California, utilities say.

On May 1, the Colorado River Basin's inflow for water year 2005 was forecasted to be 134 percent of average by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Weather
According to the National Weather Service, May 10, 2005, the outlook for May 16-20 called for above normal temperatures for most of the Western states, and mostly normal temperatures for the rest of the nation.

The National Weather Service is forecasting above normal temperatures in the Western U.S. for the period of June to September.

April temperatures were above average for most of the U.S. Heating degrees in Southern California were almost 16% below normal in April.

Economy
Real gross domestic product--the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States--increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2005, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.

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Related Info:

Some of these links point to resources outside our control. Use them accordingly. These links (except SempraNet items) are set up to open a new browser window. Close it to return here.

California Independent System Operator (Internet)

DOE Energy Information Administration (Internet)

FERC (Internet)

National Petroleum Council (Internet)

10-Day Temperature Outlook for the U.S. (Internet)

SNOTEL - River Basin Snow Content (Internet)

Northwest River Forecast Center (Internet)

Western Energy Market Update - available only to Sempra utilities and Corporate Center employees (via the CandI intranet)

_____

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