TransUnion 2025 Consumer Credit Forecast Points to Moderating Credit Card Balance Growth and Slower Delinquency Gains
December 11 2024 - 8:00AM
Following four years of increases in credit card balances and
delinquencies, a new TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) consumer credit
forecast projects a slowdown in growth for both metrics by the end
of 2025. TransUnion’s forecast also examined the state of
delinquency in 2025 for auto loans, unsecured personal loans and
mortgages.
The forecast highlights the outlook for credit cards as this
credit product is by far the most widely used in the U.S. In Q3
2024 (latest data available), there were 554.5 million active
credit cards held by U.S. consumers. In the last four years alone,
the number of credit cards increased by more than 100 million
(451.6 million in Q3 2020).
“We’ve observed widespread growth in credit cards in recent
years for myriad reasons. Notably, credit card issuers felt
comfortable taking on more risk, while consumer appetite for credit
rose in tandem with higher costs for everyday goods and services,”
said Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business
leader at TransUnion. “As inflation pressures dissipate and
interest rates continue their slow decline, we believe there will
also be a slowing in both credit card balance growth and serious
delinquency rates.”
TransUnion projects credit card balances to increase to $1.09
trillion by the end of 2024, representing a year-over-year (YoY)
increase of 3.9%. A similar YoY rise of 4.4% to $1.1 trillion is
expected at the close of 2025. These expected increases are well
below the YoY growth seen in 2022 and 2023 of 18.5% and 12.6%,
respectively.
Balances among non-prime credit card borrowers, those borrowers
with VantageScore 4.0 scores of 660 or below, are forecast to grow
at a slower rate than in recent years. Among non-prime borrowers,
balances are expected to grow by 4% YoY in 2024 and 8% in 2025
after growing by 39% and 21% in 2022 and 2023.
After Double Digit Growth in 2022 and
2023, Card Balances Are Expected to Grow More Slowly
Metric/Year |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024* |
2025* |
Year-End Balances ($B) |
$846.5 |
$740.3 |
$785.2 |
$930.6 |
$1,047.9 |
$1,088.8 |
$1,136.3 |
YoY %Change |
5.7% |
-12.5% |
6.1% |
18.5% |
12.6% |
3.9% |
4.4% |
*Forecasted
Serious credit card delinquency rates of 90 or more days past
due (90+ DPD) are expected to increase for the fifth consecutive
year in 2025 to 2.76%. The expected 12 basis point (bps) YoY rise
will follow an anticipated YoY rise of 5 bps in 2024 but is much
lower than what was observed in 2022 (+78 bps) and 2023 (+33
bps).
Card Delinquencies Are Forecast to Grow
More Slowly in the Coming Year
Metric/Year |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024* |
2025* |
Year-End DQ Rate (90+ DPD) |
2.19% |
1.30% |
1.48% |
2.26% |
2.59% |
2.64% |
2.76% |
YoYChange |
25 bps |
-89 bps |
18 bps |
78 bps |
33 bps |
5 bps |
12 bps |
*Forecasted
“The growth in total credit card balances is expected to be
driven by gradual increases in prices and in consumer spending,
along with slower increases in personal savings,” said Michele
Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at
TransUnion. “We are forecasting credit card balance increases more
in line with the single-digit growth observed in pre-pandemic
years. This slowing growth and the overall stabilization of the
economy offers optimism that we may be nearing a tipping point when
it comes to the increases in serious delinquency rates over the
past several years.”
This projected slower balance growth comes as more consumers
appear confident about the state of their household budgets.
According to TransUnion’s recently released Q4 2024 Consumer Pulse
study, 63% of consumers indicated that their household finances
were as planned or better than expected in Q4 2024. This is up from
60% one year prior.
Mixed Outlook for Delinquency Among Other Credit
Products, but Potential for Optimism
Among other lending categories, delinquencies are, for the most
part, leveling off as the macroeconomic picture improves and
consumers gradually find themselves in more favorable financial
positions.
- Auto loan delinquencies are expected to
stabilize in Q4 2024 and see a decline in Q4 2025 following two
consecutive years of growth. Serious delinquency rates of 60 or
more days past due (60+ DPD) are forecasted to remain flat YoY in
Q4 2024 before a slight decline of 7 bps in Q4 2025.
- After seeing a decline of 24 bps in Q4 2023, serious
unsecured personal loan delinquency rates (60+
DPD) are expected to remain relatively flat in Q4 2024 (-3 bps) and
see a small uptick in Q4 2025 (+13 bps). A key element of this
increase is likely lenders expanding their buy boxes to riskier
borrowers as the economy continues to stabilize.
- Despite three consecutive YoY increases (among them a
forecasted increase of 15 bps in Q4 2024), 60+ DPD
mortgage delinquency rates remain extremely low
relative to historical norms and are expected to remain flat in Q4
2025 (-1 bps).
Serious Delinquency Rates Are Not
Expected to See Significant Growth
Credit Product/Year-End DQ
Rate |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024* |
2025* |
Auto Loans |
1.29% |
0.95% |
0.92% |
1.26% |
1.42% |
1.45% |
1.38% |
Unsecured Personal Loans |
3.48% |
2.70% |
3.00% |
4.14% |
3.90% |
3.87% |
4.00% |
Mortgage |
1.63% |
1.03% |
0.82% |
0.96% |
1.11% |
1.26% |
1.25% |
*Forecasted
“One common thread that we see across lending categories is
moderation in serious delinquency, likely driven by a stabilizing
economy,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of
financial services at TransUnion. “Consumers are returning to a
financial equilibrium, increasingly finding the room needed in
their monthly budgets to make on-time payments and avoid falling
behind. Economic conditions are forecast to continue to gradually
improve in 2025. As lenders look for loan growth next year, they
should use all of the tools at their disposal to make the best
possible lending decisions.”
TransUnion’s forecasts are based on various economic
assumptions, such as expected consumer spending, disposable
personal income, home prices, inflation, interest rates, real GDP
growth rates and unemployment rates, among other metrics. The
forecasts could change if there are unanticipated shocks to the
economy. Better-than-expected improvements in the economy, such as
potential increases in GDP and disposable income, could also impact
these forecasts.
To learn more about how lenders can win more customers with
greater speed, precision and control, click here. To learn more
about how TruVision can help more precisely balance risk and
opportunity with risk management products that identify and
manage best-fit customers across the account lifecycle, click
here.
For tips on how utilization rate, payment history and other
factors can impact consumers’ credit, visit TransUnion’s blog
on how to use a credit card responsibly.
About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with
over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make
trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in
the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an
actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our
acquisitions and technology investments we have developed
innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in
core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced
analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with
confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for
Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and
personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.
http://www.transunion.com/business
Contact |
Dave Blumberg |
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TransUnion |
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E-mail |
david.blumberg@transunion.com |
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Telephone |
312-972-6646 |
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