ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
(Dollars in millions except where noted)
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations ("MD&A") explains the results of operations and general financial condition of the Tennessee Valley Authority ("TVA"). The MD&A should be read in conjunction with the accompanying unaudited consolidated financial statements and TVA's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2020 (the "Annual Report").
Executive Overview
TVA's operating revenues were $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion for the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively. The decrease in operating revenue was primarily due to lower demand revenue as a result of higher peak demand during the three months of the prior year, lower fuel cost recovery revenue from lower fuel rates, and lower effective rates. Lower effective rates resulted primarily from the Pandemic Relief Credit that the TVA Board approved in August 2020 which became effective beginning October 2020. The credit applies to service provided to TVA's LPCs, their large commercial and industrial customers, and TVA's directly served customers as a 2.5 percent monthly base rate credit, approximating $200 million for 2021. For the three months ended December 31, 2020, these credits accounted for $49 million of the decrease to operating revenue.
Depreciation and amortization expense decreased $206 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. This decrease was primarily due to a decrease in depreciation expense as a result of the decision in 2019 to accelerate the retirements of Bull Run Fossil Plant ("Bull Run") and Paradise Fossil Plant ("Paradise"). Fuel and purchased power expense decreased $67 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. This decrease was primarily due to lower natural gas prices, improved nuclear fleet performance, and more hydroelectric generation.
TVA continues to closely monitor developments associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. For the three months ended December 31, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly decrease TVA's base revenue. TVA estimates base revenues were lower by approximately $10 million during this period as a result of economic conditions surrounding COVID-19. TVA expects these conditions could continue impacting revenue for the remainder of 2021, and has planned for $10.0 billion in total operating revenues for 2021. TVA's pension and other investment portfolios have experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, but had substantially recovered as of September 30, 2020, and have continued to experience gains through the three months ended December 31, 2020. In addition, operations and delivery of energy to customers have not been materially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic at this time. See Key Initiatives and Challenges - COVID-19 Pandemic for an expanded discussion of the impact to TVA and related initiatives.
TVA continues to maintain 99.999 percent reliability in delivering energy to its customers. TVA's reliability, competitive rates, and economic development efforts continue to attract and encourage the expansion of business and industries in the Tennessee Valley, with over $2.3 billion in investments and more than 32,100 jobs created or retained during the first quarter of 2021.
Results of Operations
Sales of Electricity
Sales of electricity, which accounted for nearly all of TVA's operating revenues, were 36,672 and 36,667 million of kWh for the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively. TVA sells power at wholesale rates to LPCs that then resell the power to their customers at retail rates. TVA also sells power to directly served customers, consisting primarily of federal agencies and customers with large or nonstandard loads. In addition, power exceeding TVA's system needs is sold under exchange power arrangements with certain other power systems.
The following chart compares TVA's sales of electricity by customer type for the periods indicated:
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Sales of Electricity
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Three Months Ended December 31
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(millions of kWh)
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The following charts show a breakdown of TVA's energy load:
Note
Information included in the charts above was derived from energy usage of directly served customers and customers served by LPCs during calendar year 2019, and these graphs will continue to be updated on a calendar year basis.
Weather affects both the demand for TVA power and the price for that power. TVA uses degree days to measure the impact of weather on its power operations. Degree days measure the extent to which the TVA system 23-station average temperatures vary from 65 degrees Fahrenheit.
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Degree Days
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Variation from Normal
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Variation from Prior Period
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2020
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Normal
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Percent Change
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2019
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Normal
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Percent Change
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Percent Change
|
Heating Degree Days
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Three Months Ended December 31
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1,201
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1,289
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(6.8)
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%
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|
1,278
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|
1,289
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(0.9)
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%
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(6.0)
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%
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Cooling Degree Days
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Three Months Ended December 31
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46
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43
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7.0
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%
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|
90
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43
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109.3
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%
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(48.9)
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%
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Sales of electricity for the three months ended December 31, 2020 were flat as compared to the same period of the prior year. Sales of electricity from industries directly served increased as a result of certain customers shifting maintenance outages from December 2020 to the summer of 2020, while businesses were closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This increase was offset by a decrease in sales of electricity as a result of overall milder weather experienced during the three months ended December 31, 2020.
Financial Results
The following table compares operating results for the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019:
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Summary Consolidated Statements of Operations
(in millions)
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Three Months Ended December 31
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2020
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2019
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Percent Change
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Operating revenues
|
$
|
2,304
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|
$
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2,578
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(10.6)
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%
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Operating expenses
|
1,789
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|
2,046
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(12.6)
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%
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Operating income
|
515
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|
532
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(3.2)
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%
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Other income (expense), net
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15
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12
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25.0
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%
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Other net periodic benefit cost
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65
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|
65
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—
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%
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Interest expense
|
281
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|
287
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|
(2.1)
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%
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Net income (loss)
|
$
|
184
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|
$
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192
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(4.2)
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%
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Operating Revenues. Operating revenues were $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion for the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively, and consisted of the following:
TVA's two largest LPCs — Memphis Light, Gas and Water Division ("MLGW") and Nashville Electric Service ("NES") — have contracts with a five-year and a 20-year termination notice period, respectively. Sales to MLGW and NES each accounted for eight percent of TVA's total operating revenues during both the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019. Certain LPCs, including MLGW, are evaluating options for future energy choices. In addition, in January 2021, four LPCs accounting for four percent of TVA's total operating revenues during the three months ended December 31, 2020, filed a complaint and petition with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ("FERC") asking FERC to order TVA to provide transmission and interconnection service to the LPCs or other suppliers that want to serve them. See Note 19 — Contingencies and Legal Proceedings — Legal Proceedings — Challenge to Anti-Cherrypicking Amendment.
TVA's rate structure uses pricing signals to indicate seasons and hours of higher cost to serve its customers and to capture a portion of TVA's fixed costs in fixed charges. The structure includes three base revenue components: time of use demand charges, time of use energy charges, and a grid access charge ("GAC"). The demand charges are based upon the customer's peak monthly usage and increase as the peak increases. The energy charges are based on time differentiated kWh used by the customer. Both of these components can be significantly impacted by weather. The GAC captures a portion of fixed costs and is offset by a corresponding reduction to the energy rates. The GAC also reduces the impact of weather variability to the overall rate structure.
In 2019, the TVA Board approved a Partnership Agreement option that better aligns the length of LPC power contracts with TVA's long-term commitments. Under the partnership arrangement, the LPC power contracts have a 20-year termination notice provision that renews each year after their initial effective date, contingent upon certain circumstances, including limited rate increases going forward. Participating LPCs will receive benefits including a 3.1 percent wholesale bill credit in exchange for their long-term commitment, which enables TVA to recover its long-term financial commitments over a commensurate period. As of February 11, 2021, 142 LPCs had signed the 20-year Partnership Agreement with TVA.
In 2020, the TVA Board approved a Pandemic Relief Credit which became effective beginning October 2020. The credit applies to service provided to TVA's LPCs, their large commercial and industrial customers, and TVA directly served customers as a 2.5 percent monthly base rate credit, approximating $200 million for 2021.
In addition to base revenues, the rate structure includes a separate fuel rate that includes the costs of natural gas, fuel oil, purchased power, coal, emission allowances, nuclear fuel, and other fuel-related commodities; realized gains and losses on derivatives purchased to hedge the costs of such commodities; and payments to states and counties in lieu of taxes ("tax equivalents") associated with the fuel cost adjustments.
The changes in revenue components for the three months ended December 31, 2020, compared to the three months ended December 31, 2019, are summarized below:
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Changes in Revenue Components
(in millions)
|
|
Three Months Ended December 31
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2020
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2019
|
|
Change
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|
Base revenue
|
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|
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|
Energy revenue
|
$
|
1,060
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|
$
|
1,067
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|
$
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(7)
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Demand revenue
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750
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883
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(133)
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Grid access charge
|
149
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|
149
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|
|
—
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Long-term partnership credits for LPCs
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(42)
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(34)
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(8)
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Pandemic relief credit
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(49)
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|
—
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(49)
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Other charges and credits(1)
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(141)
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(144)
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3
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Total base revenue
|
1,727
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|
1,921
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(194)
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Fuel cost recovery
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541
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|
610
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(69)
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Off-system sales
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2
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|
1
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|
1
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Revenue from sales of electricity
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2,270
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|
2,532
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|
(262)
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Other revenue
|
34
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|
46
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|
(12)
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|
Total operating revenues
|
$
|
2,304
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|
|
$
|
2,578
|
|
|
$
|
(274)
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|
|
Note
(1) Includes economic development credits to promote growth in the Tennessee Valley, hydro preference credits for residential customers of LPCs, and demand response credits allowing TVA to reduce industrial customer usage in periods of peak demand to balance system demand. See Note 15 — Revenue.
Operating revenues decreased $274 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year, primarily due to a $194 million decrease in base revenue and a $69 million decrease in fuel cost recovery revenue. The $194 million decrease in base revenue was driven by a decrease of $119 million primarily attributable to lower demand volume and a decrease of $75 million attributable to lower effective rates. Lower demand volume resulted primarily from higher peak demand during the three months ended December 31, 2019. During this period, TVA's service territory experienced peaks of record-setting heat in October 2019 and record-setting cold in November 2019. Lower effective rates resulted primarily from the Pandemic Relief Credits that began in 2021, totaling $49 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020. For the three months ended December 31, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly decrease TVA's base revenue. TVA estimates base revenues were lower by approximately $10 million during this period as a result of economic conditions surrounding COVID-19. TVA expects these conditions could continue impacting revenue for the remainder of 2021, and has planned for $10.0 billion in total operating revenues for 2021. It is uncertain at this time the extent to which TVA's revenues may be impacted beyond 2021. The $69 million decrease in fuel cost recovery revenue was driven by lower fuel rates resulting primarily from lower market prices for natural gas.
Operating Expenses. Operating expense components as a percentage of total operating expenses for the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019, consisted of the following:
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Operating Expenses
(in millions)
|
|
Three Months Ended December 31
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|
|
2020
|
|
2019
|
|
Change
|
|
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|
|
Operating expenses
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
Fuel
|
$
|
369
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|
|
$
|
423
|
|
|
$
|
(54)
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|
Purchased power
|
206
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|
|
219
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|
|
(13)
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|
|
|
|
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|
Operating and maintenance
|
715
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|
|
689
|
|
|
26
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Depreciation and amortization
|
378
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|
|
584
|
|
|
(206)
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tax equivalents
|
121
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|
|
131
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|
|
(10)
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total operating expenses
|
$
|
1,789
|
|
|
$
|
2,046
|
|
|
$
|
(257)
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fuel expense decreased $54 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. This decrease was primarily due to lower effective fuel rates of $60 million, resulting from lower natural gas prices, improved nuclear fleet performance, and more hydroelectric generation. Partially offsetting this decrease was an increase in fuel volume of $4 million due to an increase of TVA-owned generation as well as an increase of $2 million in fuel rate recovery.
Purchased power expense decreased $13 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. This was primarily driven by a $17 million decrease in volume resulting from higher availability of TVA-owned generation. Partially offsetting this decrease was a $4 million increase in fuel rate recovery.
Operating and maintenance expense increased $26 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. This was primarily due to an increase in outage expense of $30 million, driven by an increase in planned nuclear outage days. Additionally, there was a $14 million increase in payroll and benefit costs due to labor escalation for cost of living increases. Partially offsetting these increases was a reduction related to TVA's capital spare program of $15 million.
Depreciation and amortization expense decreased $206 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. This was primarily driven by a net decrease in depreciation expense of $201 million related to the decision in 2019 to accelerate the retirements of Bull Run and Paradise. Paradise was fully depreciated in the second quarter of 2020. Additionally, amortization expense of non-nuclear decommissioning costs recovered in rates decreased $24 million. Partially offsetting these decreases was an increase due to depreciation of additions to completed plant.
Tax equivalents expense decreased $10 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. The change is primarily driven by a decrease in TVA's revenue from sales of electricity in 2020, which is used as the basis for calculating tax equivalent expense. Additionally, the amount of tax equivalents collected in the fuel rate recovery decreased during 2020.
The following table shows TVA's generation and purchased power by generating source as a percentage of all electrical power generated and purchased (based on kWh) for the periods indicated:
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|
|
Total Power Supply by Generating Source
|
|
|
Three Months Ended December 31
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|
|
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|
2020
|
|
2019
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
kWh
(millions)
|
|
Percent of Power Supply
|
|
kWh
(millions)
|
|
Percent of Power Supply
|
|
Change
|
|
Percentage Change
|
Coal-fired
|
|
3,299
|
|
|
9
|
%
|
|
5,170
|
|
|
14
|
%
|
|
(1,871)
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|
|
(36)
|
%
|
Nuclear
|
|
16,348
|
|
|
44
|
%
|
|
15,716
|
|
|
42
|
%
|
|
632
|
|
|
4
|
%
|
Hydroelectric
|
|
4,705
|
|
|
13
|
%
|
|
3,655
|
|
|
10
|
%
|
|
1,050
|
|
|
29
|
%
|
Natural gas and/or oil-fired
|
|
8,389
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|
|
22
|
%
|
|
7,855
|
|
|
21
|
%
|
|
534
|
|
|
7
|
%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total TVA-operated generation facilities(1)
|
|
32,741
|
|
|
88
|
%
|
|
32,396
|
|
|
87
|
%
|
|
345
|
|
|
1
|
%
|
Purchased power (non-renewable)(2)
|
|
2,536
|
|
|
7
|
%
|
|
2,954
|
|
|
8
|
%
|
|
(418)
|
|
|
(14)
|
%
|
Purchased power (renewable)(3)
|
|
1,980
|
|
|
5
|
%
|
|
1,950
|
|
|
5
|
%
|
|
30
|
|
|
2
|
%
|
Total purchased power
|
|
4,516
|
|
|
12
|
%
|
|
4,904
|
|
|
13
|
%
|
|
(388)
|
|
|
(8)
|
%
|
Total power supply
|
|
37,257
|
|
|
100
|
%
|
|
37,300
|
|
|
100
|
%
|
|
(43)
|
|
|
—
|
%
|
Notes
(1) Generation from TVA-owned renewable resources (non-hydroelectric) is less than one percent for all periods shown and therefore is not represented in the table above.
(2) Purchased power (non-renewable) includes generation from Caledonia Combined Cycle Plant ("Caledonia CC"), which is currently a leased facility operated by TVA. Generation from Caledonia CC was 1,071 million kWh and 805 million kWh for the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively.
(3) Purchased power (renewable) includes purchased power from the following renewable sources: hydroelectric, solar, wind, biomass, and cogeneration.
In addition to power supply sources included here, TVA offers energy efficiency programs that effectively reduce energy needs. TVA estimates energy needs could be reduced by 2,500 million kWh in 2021 due to TVA's energy efficiency programs.
Interest Expense. Interest expense and interest rates for the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019, were as follows:
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Expense and Rates
|
|
|
Three Months Ended December 31
|
|
|
|
|
2020
|
|
2019
|
|
Percent
Change
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest expense(1)
|
$
|
281
|
|
|
$
|
287
|
|
|
(2.1)
|
%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average blended debt balance(2)
|
21,287
|
|
|
22,230
|
|
|
(4.2)
|
%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average blended interest rate(3)
|
5.17
|
%
|
|
5.06
|
%
|
|
2.2
|
%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Notes
(1) Includes amortization of debt discounts, issuance, and reacquisition costs, net.
(2) Includes average balances of long-term power bonds, debt of VIE, and discount notes.
(3) Includes interest on long-term power bonds, debt of VIE, and discount notes.
Total interest expense decreased $6 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. This decrease was primarily driven by lower average balances and rates on short-term debt and lower average balances on long-term debt. Partially offsetting these decreases was an increase due to higher average rates on long-term debt.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Sources of Liquidity
TVA depends on various sources of liquidity to meet cash needs and contingencies. TVA's primary sources of liquidity are cash from operations and proceeds from the issuance of short-term debt in the form of discount notes, along with periodic issuances of long-term debt. TVA's balance of short-term debt typically changes frequently as TVA issues discount notes to meet short-term cash needs and pay scheduled maturities of discount notes and long-term debt. The periodic amounts of short-term debt issued are determined by near-term expectations for cash receipts, cash expenditures, and funding needs, while seeking to maintain a target range of cash and cash equivalents on hand.
In addition to cash from operations and proceeds from the issuance of short-term and long-term debt, TVA's sources of liquidity include a $150 million credit facility with the United States Department of the Treasury ("U.S. Treasury"), four long-term revolving credit facilities totaling approximately $2.7 billion, and proceeds from other financings. See Note 11 — Debt and Other Obligations — Credit Facility Agreements. Other financing arrangements may include sales of receivables, loans, or other assets.
The TVA Act authorizes TVA to issue bonds, notes, or other evidences of indebtedness (collectively, "Bonds") in an amount not to exceed $30.0 billion outstanding at any time. Power bonds outstanding, excluding unamortized discounts and premiums and net exchange gains from foreign currency transactions, at December 31, 2020, were $20.1 billion (including current maturities). The balance of Bonds outstanding directly affects TVA's capacity to meet operational liquidity needs and to strategically use Bonds to fund certain capital investments as management and the TVA Board may deem desirable. Other options for financing not subject to the limit on Bonds, including lease financings (see Lease Financings below and Note 8 — Variable Interest Entities), could provide supplementary funding if needed. Currently, TVA expects to have adequate capability to fund its ongoing operational liquidity needs and make planned capital investments over the next decade. See Lease Financings below, Note 8 — Variable Interest Entities, and Note 11 — Debt and Other Obligations for additional information.
TVA may from time to time seek to retire or purchase its outstanding debt through cash purchases and/or exchanges for securities, in open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, or otherwise. Such repurchases or exchanges, if any, will depend on prevailing market conditions, TVA's liquidity requirements, contractual restrictions, and other factors. The amounts involved may be material. TVA's next material power bond maturity of $1.5 billion is in February 2021.
Due to higher volatility in the financial markets associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, TVA increased its target balance of Cash and cash equivalents beginning in March 2020. TVA may continue to hold higher balances in future periods due to potential market volatility. TVA has maintained continued debt market access since the outbreak of the pandemic.
Debt Securities. TVA's Bonds are not obligations of the U.S., and the U.S. does not guarantee the payments of principal or interest on Bonds. TVA's Bonds consist of power bonds and discount notes. Power bonds have maturities of between one and 50 years. At December 31, 2020, the average maturity of long-term power bonds was 15.07 years, and the average interest rate was 4.56 percent. Discount notes have maturities of less than one year. Power bonds and discount notes have a first priority and equal claim of payment out of net power proceeds. Net power proceeds are defined as the remainder of TVA's gross power revenues after deducting the costs of operating, maintaining, and administering its power properties and payments to states and counties in lieu of taxes, but before deducting depreciation accruals or other charges representing the amortization of capital expenditures, plus the net proceeds from the sale or other disposition of any power facility or interest therein. In addition to power bonds and discount notes, TVA had long-term debt associated with certain VIEs outstanding at December 31, 2020. See Lease Financings below, Note 8 — Variable Interest Entities, and Note 11 — Debt and Other Obligations for additional information.
The following table provides additional information regarding TVA's short-term borrowings:
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Short-Term Borrowing Table
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At December 31, 2020
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Three Months Ended December 31, 2020
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At December 31, 2019
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Three Months Ended December 31, 2019
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Gross Amount Outstanding (at End of Period) or Average Gross Amount Outstanding (During Period)
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Discount Notes
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$
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112
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$
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146
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$
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895
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$
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767
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Maximum Month-End Gross Amount Outstanding (During Period)
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Discount Notes
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N/A
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$
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115
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N/A
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$
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895
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Weighted Average Interest Rate
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Discount Notes
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0.07
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0.06
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%
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1.56
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%
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1.71
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Lease Financings. TVA has entered into certain leasing transactions with special purpose entities ("SPEs") to obtain third-party financing for its facilities. These SPEs are sometimes identified as VIEs of which TVA is determined to be the primary beneficiary. TVA is required to account for these VIEs on a consolidated basis. See Note 8 — Variable Interest Entities and Note 11 — Debt and Other Obligations for information about TVA's lease financing activities. During 2017 and 2016, TVA acquired 100 percent of the equity interests in certain SPEs created for the purpose of facilitating lease financing. TVA may seek to enter into similar arrangements in the future. In 2019, TVA made final rent payments under lease/leaseback transactions involving eight CTs and terminated these transactions. In 2020, TVA made final rent payments under lease/leaseback transactions involving eight additional CTs and anticipate these transactions will be terminated in 2021. TVA will continue making rent payments under the remaining lease/leaseback transactions through 2022.
Summary Cash Flows
A major source of TVA's liquidity is operating cash flows resulting from the generation and sale of electricity. Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash were $529 million at December 31, 2020, compared to $327 million at December 31, 2019. A summary of cash flow components for the three months ended December 31, 2020 and 2019, follows:
Cash provided by (used in):
Operating Activities. TVA's cash flows from operations are primarily driven by sales of electricity, fuel expense, and operating and maintenance expense. The timing and level of cash flows from operations can be affected by the weather, changes in working capital, commodity price fluctuations, outages, and other project expenses.
Net cash flows provided by operating activities decreased $243 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year. The decrease is primarily due to lower revenue collections from lower demand volume, lower effective rates as a result of the Pandemic Relief Credit, and lower fuel cost recovery revenue. These decreases were partially offset by decreases in fuel and purchased power payments as a result of lower natural gas prices and more availability of lower cost TVA-owned generation in the current year.
Investing Activities. The majority of TVA's investing cash flows are due to investments to acquire, upgrade, or maintain
generating and transmission assets, including environmental projects and the purchase of nuclear fuel. Nuclear fuel
expenditures vary depending on the number of outages and the prices and timing of purchases of uranium and enrichment
services.
Net cash flows used in investing activities increased $54 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to the same period of the prior year driven by an increase in capacity expansion projects due to construction of the new Colbert and Paradise Combustion Turbine units in addition to the Boone Dam remediation project. This increase was partially offset by a decrease in expenditures for the Pickwick South Embankment remediation project nearing completion.
Financing Activities. TVA's cash flows provided by or used in financing activities are primarily driven by the timing and level of cash flows provided by operating activities, cash flows used in investing activities, and net issuance and redemption of debt instruments to maintain a strategic balance of cash on hand.
Net cash provided by financing activities was $57 million for the three months ended December 31, 2020, as compared to $243 million in net cash used in financing activities in the same period of the prior year. The net change of $300 million was due to an increase in TVA’s target balance of Cash and cash equivalents and short-term cash needs. As a result of higher volatility in the financial markets associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, TVA increased its target balance of Cash and cash equivalents beginning in March 2020 and continues to hold an approximately $200 million higher balance at December 31, 2020, as compared to December 31, 2019.
Impact of COVID-19 to Liquidity
The COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly decrease base revenue for the three months ended December 31, 2020; however, TVA will continue to monitor the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on revenue for the remainder of 2021. See Results of Operations — Financial Results — Operating Revenues and Key Initiatives and Challenges — Coronavirus Pandemic for an expanded discussion of the impact to TVA.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also created economic uncertainty for TVA's LPCs and the communities they serve. To
support LPCs and strengthen the public power response to the COVID-19 pandemic, TVA has created initiatives such as the
Public Power Support and Stabilization Program, Back-to-Business Credit Program, Community Care Fund, and Pandemic
Relief Credit. TVA has also provided regulatory flexibility for LPCs to halt disconnection of services. See Key Initiatives and Challenges — Coronavirus Pandemic for an expanded discussion of these initiatives.
Contractual Obligations
TVA has certain obligations and commitments to make future payments under contracts. During the three months ended December 31, 2020, there were no material changes in TVA's contractual obligations outside of the ordinary course of business. TVA's contractual obligations are discussed in Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Liquidity and Capital Resources and Note 21 — Benefit Plans of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in the Annual Report.
Key Initiatives and Challenges
COVID-19 Pandemic
In December 2019, a novel strain of coronavirus was reported in China. As this strain continued to spread across the globe, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020. TVA has performed risk analyses across the company to determine potential impacts and monitor performance throughout the situation and has implemented a company-wide pandemic plan to address specific aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. TVA's pandemic plan continues to evolve based on medical guidance and federal, regional, and local requirements and guidelines.
Based on ongoing monitoring, COVID-19 continues to pose a significant risk in the U.S. and in the Tennessee Valley region, and as a result TVA has extended the timeframe for workforce reintegration and continues to limit non-essential travel. Mandatory telework has been implemented for those employees who do not have to be physically present at a TVA facility or office building to provide mission-essential activities or produce safe, reliable power. TVA continues to implement strong physical and cybersecurity measures to ensure that systems remain functional to keep employees, customers, and communities safe and enable TVA to continue achieving its mission to serve the people of the Valley. In addition to measures to protect its workforce, stakeholders, and critical operations, TVA is actively monitoring generation, transmission, and distribution functions. Operations and delivery of energy to customers have not been materially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic at this time. Certain TVA recreation areas including TVA campgrounds, day use areas, trails, and undeveloped lands have reopened since TVA had initially closed them to slow the spread of the virus. However, for public and staff safety, restrooms and pavilions remain closed. These changes will continue until TVA believes it is safe to resume full operations.
For the three months ended December 31, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly decrease TVA's base revenue. TVA estimates base revenues were lower by approximately $10 million as a result of economic conditions surrounding COVID-19. TVA expects these conditions could continue impacting revenue for the remainder of 2021 and has planned for $10.0 billion in total operating revenue in 2021. It is uncertain at this time the extent to which revenues may be impacted beyond 2021. The ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TVA's financial condition depends on factors beyond TVA's knowledge or control, including the duration and severity, actions taken to contain its spread and mitigate its effects, and broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the country and region's economy. See Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Results of Operations — Financial Results — Operating Revenues.
TVA also continues to assess potential supplier performance risks, including procurement of fuel, parts, and services. If suppliers are unable to perform under TVA's existing contracts or if TVA is unable to obtain similar services from other vendors, TVA could experience delays, disruptions, additional costs, or other operational outcomes that may impact generation, maintenance, and capital programs. At this time, TVA has experienced minimal impacts due to force majeure events, with the exception of a manufacturing delay for a major turbine component. A mitigation strategy was developed by TVA and the vendor to reduce projected delays and impacts to TVA's outage schedule. TVA will continue to monitor the supply base and remain in contact with suppliers to identify potential risks.
Customer Pandemic Initiatives. The COVID-19 pandemic has created economic uncertainty for TVA's customers and the communities they serve. To support and strengthen the public power response to the COVID-19 pandemic, TVA announced the following initiatives:
Regulatory Flexibility. TVA provided regulatory flexibility for LPCs to halt disconnection of services and respond to the local needs of their customers and communities.
Program Flexibility. In 2020, TVA established flexibility provisions for certain economic development programs for participating customers impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as deferral options for EnergyRight® program loan payments, through October 31, 2020, for customers experiencing financial hardship. See Note 6 — Other Long-Term Assets, Note 9 — Other Long-Term Liabilities, and Note 15 — Revenue.
Financial Support. In 2020, the TVA Board approved the Public Power Support and Stabilization Program. Through this program, TVA offered up to $1.0 billion of credit support to LPCs that demonstrated the need for temporary financial relief, through the deferral of a portion of LPCs' wholesale power payments owed to TVA. The program ended December 31, 2020, with a total of $1 million of credit support approved under the program. Repayment has begun and full payment is expected in the second quarter of 2021.
Back-to-Business Credit Program. TVA created the Back-to-Business Credit Program to enable TVA and LPCs to provide relief to certain large customers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic by providing certain credits when returning to operations. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had provided approximately $11 million in Back-to-Business credits under this program since its inception, with approximately $1 million provided in the three months ended December 31, 2020.
Community Care Fund. TVA also continues to partner with LPCs through the Community Care Fund by making available over $4 million in TVA matching funds to support local initiatives that address hardships created by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of December 31, 2020, over $3 million in matching funds had been provided by TVA, with approximately $1 million provided in the three months ended December 31, 2020.
Pandemic Relief Credit. In August 2020, the TVA Board approved a Pandemic Relief Credit which became effective beginning October 2020. The credit applies to service provided to TVA's LPCs, their large commercial and industrial customers, and TVA directly served customers as a 2.5 percent monthly base rate credit, approximating $200 million for 2021. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had provided approximately $49 million in Pandemic Relief Credits.
These actions continue to show TVA's commitment to support the financial integrity of LPCs along with communities and customers across the Tennessee Valley during these challenging economic conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is an evolving situation that may lead to extended disruption of economic activity and an adverse impact on TVA's results of operations. TVA is closely monitoring developments and will continue adjusting its response as necessary to ensure reliable service while protecting the safety and health of its workforce.
Distributed Energy Resources
Consumer desire for energy choice, among other things, is driving the expectation for flexible options in the electric industry. TVA and LPCs are working together to leverage the strengths of the Tennessee Valley public power model to provide distributed energy solutions that are economical, sustainable, and flexible. TVA will focus on the safety and reliability impacts of these resources as they are interconnected to the grid and will ensure that the pricing of electricity remains as low as feasible. Additional regulatory considerations and analysis may be required as the DER market, technologies, and programs evolve. The TVA Board recently approved new policies and an optional wholesale Electric Vehicle (“EV”) rate aimed at encouraging the development of charging infrastructure in the Valley. The updated policies enable LPC investment in public charging infrastructure and allow for the conditional resale of electricity for transportation purposes only, by any charging developer. This will enable transparent and economical refueling pricing options for EV drivers on a kWh basis. The optional wholesale rate was developed with high power EV charging in mind and provides a stable, economical option for those developing charging infrastructure. Setting policies such as these, positions TVA’s service territory to attract more EV and associated technology investment. TVA will continue to develop pricing and regulatory structures for each current and future program offering, in partnership with LPCs, in order to give customers choices and provide end use consumers flexibility.
In 2017, the TVA Board authorized up to $300 million to be spent over the next 10 years, subject to annual budget availability and necessary environmental reviews, to build an enhanced fiber optic network that will better connect TVA's operational assets. Fiber is a vital part of TVA's modern communication infrastructure. The new fiber optic lines will improve the reliability and resiliency of the generation and transmission system while enabling the system to better accommodate DER as they enter the market. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent $129 million on installation of the fiber optic lines and expects to spend an additional $171 million.
Changing Customer Preferences
As more consumers and businesses are demanding cleaner energy, the utility industry is evolving to meet those needs. As TVA also evolves, it will see impacts to the way it does business through the pricing of products, transmission of energy, and development of new products and services for its customers in support of changing customer preferences and its economic development efforts. End-use customers are becoming more technologically sophisticated and want greater control over their energy usage. Many companies are focusing on sustainability and requiring more energy efficiency and renewable energy
options. The continuing challenge for TVA and others is finding ways to meet the needs and preferences of customers while successfully developing flexible pricing models to accommodate the evolving markets.
Low-Income Energy Efficiency Program. Through the Home Uplift Program, TVA is partnering with LPCs, state and local governments, non-profit agencies, energy efficiency advocates, and the Tennessee Valley Public Power Association to complete home evaluations and make high-impact home energy upgrades for qualifying homeowners. In addition, TVA and LPCs conduct workshops to educate homeowners about low and no-cost energy efficiency upgrades that improve their quality of life.
Renewable Power Purchase Agreements. In order to meet customer preferences and requirements for cleaner energy, TVA has entered into certain power purchase agreements ("PPAs") with renewable resource providers. In 2019, as a result of TVA's 2017 request for proposals for renewable energy, TVA signed four solar PPAs for 674 megawatts ("MW") of solar generation at sites in Tennessee and Alabama. One of these four solar projects is expected to come online in 2021 and two of the projects are expected to come online in 2022. In 2020, one of the counterparties failed to comply with the terms of its PPA. TVA terminated the 150 MW agreement due to the counterparty's default and is evaluating its rights under the PPA and next steps. During 2020, as a result of TVA's 2019 request for proposals for renewable energy, TVA signed six PPAs for a total of 661 MW of solar generation with 50 MW of battery storage expected to come online in 2023. Due to transmission issues for one of the projects, the 661 MW will be decreased to 651 MW. TVA issued another request for proposal during the second quarter of 2020 for up to 200 MW of new renewable energy. During 2021, as a result of the 2020 request for proposal and increased customer demand, TVA signed seven additional PPAs for a total of 964 MW of solar generation with 130 MW of battery storage expected to come online in 2023. TVA anticipates making any remaining selections in the second quarter of 2021.
TVA will procure the renewable energy and sell the resulting Renewable Energy Certificates ("RECs") to specific customers, allowing TVA to increase its renewable energy portfolio without additional costs to other Tennessee Valley customers. These agreements help to align the core values of TVA and the public power model with the desire of TVA's customers for renewable energy.
Renewable Power Solutions. TVA encourages renewable power through various current offerings. Offerings include the Green Switch Program that allows customers to support wind, solar, and biomass renewable resources through purchasing renewable energy generated in the Tennessee Valley, sold in 200 kWh blocks. The Green Flex Program gives commercial and industrial customers the ability to meet sustainability goals and to make renewable energy claims through RECs from wind generation located outside TVA's service area. TVA also offers a utility-scale program and a mid-scale flexibility option that better equip TVA and LPCs with the flexibility to meet changing end-use customer needs. The utility-scale program, Green Invest, aggregates demand through a competitive procurement process and is implemented through a renewable investment agreement. The goal of the Green Invest program is to meet the long-term sustainability needs of customers at scale. TVA may also construct its own renewable facilities to meet these needs. The mid-scale option, also known as the Flexibility Research Project, is a joint project with LPCs to enable solutions for situations where the end-use consumer needs onsite renewable or distributed generation. This project will allow TVA to gain market knowledge and operational insights. In addition, TVA launched the Green Connect Program in January 2021 to connect residential customers interested in on-site solar installations with qualified solar installers.
Energy Exchange Market
TVA and other utilities across the southeastern United States are exploring the creation of a new automated energy exchange across the region, to facilitate more immediate and short-term power exchanges. The energy exchange would be an enhancement to TVA's existing trading program, and the creation of this energy exchange platform would require approval of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which regulates transmission service and power transfers by jurisdictional public utilities. These discussions demonstrate TVA's commitment to maintaining and improving reliability in the Tennessee Valley in the least-cost manner.
Natural Resource Plan
In 2020, the TVA Board of Directors accepted changes to TVA's Natural Resource Plan ("NRP") to support a more strategic, flexible, and comprehensive management approach to TVA's natural resource stewardship work, and TVA published its Record of Decision to complete its environmental review process. The updated plan enhances alignment with TVA's mission through economic development, energy, and environmental stewardship, and guides business planning. In the newly published NRP, TVA expanded from six resource areas to ten focus areas, ensuring the NRP provides a more comprehensive view of resource stewardship efforts.
Strategic Financial Plan
In 2019, the TVA Board approved an annual budget that reflects the first year of a new Strategic Financial Plan. The Strategic Financial Plan, which extends from 2020 through 2030, is flexible in aligning customer preferences and TVA's mission while at the same time establishing a long-term forecast of financial results. Key focus areas of the Strategic Financial Plan include maintaining rates as low as feasible, establishing better alignment between the length of LPC contracts and TVA's long-
term commitments, stabilizing debt, assuming 100 percent long-term partner participation, maintaining a target cash balance of $300 million, and pursuing operational efficiencies. As TVA executes the plan, key assumptions and performance may change estimated debt and cash balances. For example, TVA is continuing to evaluate its long-term asset needs. In addition, due to higher volatility in the financial markets associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, TVA increased its target balance of Cash and cash equivalents in 2020. TVA may continue to hold higher balances in future periods due to potential market volatility.
In 2021, TVA retained Lazard Frères & Co. LLC ("Lazard"), an international financial advisory and asset management firm, to evaluate TVA’s financial performance from 2014 through 2020 against TVA’s 2014 long range financial plan (“2014 Plan”). Further, Lazard also reassessed whether the public power model and TVA’s existing business structure are reasonable approaches to support TVA’s mission, consistent with the scope of analysis and findings from Lazard’s 2014 Strategic Assessment Report (“2014 Lazard Report”). In the 2021 report, Lazard concluded that TVA’s financial performance from 2014 through fiscal year 2020 has been strong when measured against the financial performance objectives as set forth in TVA’s 2014 Plan and the performance of other large utility companies. Lazard also concluded that TVA’s performance in recent years and current positioning suggest that the public power model is a reasonable approach to support TVA’s mission. In addition, the 2021 report reaffirmed that Lazard’s previous conclusions from the 2014 Lazard Report with respect to the benefits and considerations of the public power model compared against alternative business models are still valid today.
Generation Resources
Extreme Flooding Preparedness. Updates to the TVA analytical hydrology model completed in 2009 indicated that under "probable maximum flood" conditions, some of TVA's dams might not have been capable of regulating the higher flood waters. A "probable maximum flood" is an extremely unlikely event; however, TVA has a responsibility to provide protection for its nuclear plants against such events. As a result, TVA installed a series of modifications at four dams.
Since 2009, TVA has performed further hydrology modeling of portions of the TVA watershed using updated modeling tools. The revised hydrology models were reviewed and approved by the NRC for Watts Bar Units 1 and 2. However, TVA identified an error in the modeling that will require the models for Watts Bar Units 1 and 2 to be resubmitted. TVA plans to resubmit models for Watts Bar Units 1 and 2 by the end of the third quarter of 2021. In addition, TVA submitted models for Sequoyah Nuclear Plant ("Sequoyah") Units 1 and 2 in 2020. TVA will subsequently address conditions at Browns Ferry as needed. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent $154 million on the modifications and improvements related to extreme flooding preparedness. TVA is deferring the decision on the need for additional modifications until after the modeling work is complete.
Mitigation of Beyond-Design-Basis Events. NRC rulemaking has been developed to codify the requirements promulgated by orders related to beyond-design-basis flooding discussed above. The NRC Commissioners approved the final rule in 2019. TVA plans to implement requirements for Sequoyah and Watts Bar by 2022 and for Browns Ferry by 2023. A gap review of the revised rule has been performed, and no new gaps to compliance were identified. Actions to complete flood assessments are still ongoing. See Extreme Flooding Preparedness above.
Work Environment at Nuclear Plants. In 2016, the NRC issued a Chilling Effect Letter ("CEL") to TVA regarding work environment concerns identified at Watts Bar. In the mid-cycle assessment letter issued in 2018, the NRC issued a Cross Cutting Issue in safety conscious work environment ("CCI") and outlined the closure criteria for both the CEL and CCI. In October 2019, TVA informed the NRC of its CEL and CCI closure criteria readiness, and the NRC completed its inspection, resulting in no additional findings with progress noted as documented in its December 2019 inspection report. In March 2020, the NRC issued its Annual Assessment Letter for Watts Bar noting TVA's progress in addressing the CEL and CCI while stating that the NRC continues to monitor TVA's activities as they deliberate on the appropriate time to close the CEL and CCI.
Apparent Violations of NRC Regulations. On March 2, 2020, the NRC issued a letter to TVA identifying four apparent violations of NRC regulations that prohibit licensees from retaliating against employees for their having raised protected nuclear safety concerns. In June 2020, TVA participated in a pre-decisional enforcement conference before the NRC, and in August 2020, the NRC issued violations to TVA and a notice of proposed imposition of civil penalties in an amount less than $1 million. TVA submitted a written response to the NRC that denies the violations and opposes the imposition of civil penalties. In October 2020, the NRC issued an order imposing civil penalties in an amount less than $1 million. In November 2020, TVA requested an evidentiary hearing before the NRC’s Atomic Safety and Licensing Board. The evidentiary hearing is scheduled for August 2021.
On March 9, 2020, the NRC issued a letter to TVA identifying twelve apparent violations of NRC regulations: six relating
to operational activities and six relating to NRC regulations governing the completeness and accuracy of information. TVA
participated in a pre-decisional enforcement conference before the NRC in July 2020, and on November 6, 2020, the NRC
issued five violations to TVA and a notice of proposed imposition of civil penalties in an amount less than $1 million. TVA submitted a written response to the NRC violations in December 2020, accepting the violations in part and denying them in part, and requesting a reduction of the civil penalties consistent with the denial. TVA anticipates that the NRC will issue its order imposing civil penalties in February 2021.
Tritium-Producing Burnable Absorber Rods. TVA was a cooperating agency in the 2016 Department of Energy ("DOE") Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for the Production of Tritium in a Commercial Light Water Reactor. In 2017, due to an anticipated need for more tritium-producing burnable absorber rods ("TPBARs"), the DOE announced its preferred alternative for irradiation services, which included use of an additional reactor. As a result of TVA's assessment and concurrence with the DOE's alternative, TVA submitted a license amendment request to the NRC to authorize the irradiation of TPBARs in Watts Bar Unit 2. The NRC approved the request in 2019, and TVA began tritium production in Watts Bar Unit 2 in November 2020. The DOE's decision also allows for irradiation of TPBARs at Sequoyah in the future; however, TVA does not have plans to employ Sequoyah units for tritium production in the near term.
Extended Power Uprate. TVA has undertaken an extended power uprate ("EPU") project at Browns Ferry to increase the amount of electrical generation capacity of its reactors. The license for each reactor was amended to allow reactor operation at the higher power level. The Browns Ferry EPU license amendments were approved by the NRC in 2017, following a nearly two-year review.
The project involved extensive engineering analyses and modification and replacement of certain existing plant components to enable the units to produce the additional power requested by the license amendments. The project's total cost will be approximately $475 million. Physical work on all units was completed in 2019. The generating capacity is expected to increase by an estimated 465 MW that must be validated through operation of all units for four seasons and completion of additional testing. TVA is currently operating and testing the units through the required period to complete the validation of the increased generating capacity and will update the official capacity upon issuance of the engineering memos.
Watts Bar Unit 2. During the recently completed Watts Bar Unit 2 refueling outage, TVA identified degraded steam generator conditions on unit 2. Based on a continued operation assessment, TVA submitted a License Amendment Request that supports unit operation until approximately August 2021. The request is under NRC review and a decision is expected in February 2021. A project team is in place to ensure operational assessments, analysis work, and regulatory interface occur to allow for a safe and efficient mid-cycle steam generator inspection. Watts Bar Unit 2 will remain at 90 percent of rated output until assessments are completed, defining the conditions required to operate the unit until the mid-cycle outage in the September 2021 timeframe. The mid-cycle outage will focus on an inspection protocol with multiple contingency repair strategies such that safe and reliable operation can be assured until the permanent steam generator replacement occurs, which is projected for March 2022.
Plant Closures. Results of assessments performed at Paradise and Bull Run were presented to the TVA Board at its February 2019 meeting. The TVA Board approved the retirement of Paradise Unit 3 by December 2020 and Bull Run by December 2023. Subsequent to the TVA Board approval, TVA determined that Paradise would not be restarted after January 2020 due to the plant's material condition. Paradise Fossil Plant Unit 3 was taken offline on February 1, 2020, effectively retiring the plant. See Note 5 — Plant Closures.
Optimum Energy Portfolio. TVA must continuously evaluate all generating assets to ensure an optimal energy portfolio that provides safe, clean, and reliable power while maintaining flexibility and fiscal responsibility to the people of the Tennessee Valley. During 2019, the TVA Board approved the Integrated Resource Plan, which recommended an action to evaluate the engineering end-of-life of aging fossil units. These assessments consider material condition, plant performance, system flexibility needs, environmental impacts, grid support, and other factors. TVA is also considering plans for additional generating facilities to replace retiring or expiring capacity and to support a low cost, reliable, flexible, and increasingly clean power system. In addition, TVA will prepare Environmental Assessments ("EAs") pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act ("NEPA") prior to retiring or building a plant.
Natural Gas-Fired Units. During 2019, the TVA Board approved an expansion of approximately 1,500 MW of peaking gas replacement capacity at two combustion turbine gas facilities. In 2020, the capacity expansion projects began at TVA’s Paradise and Colbert sites. Each project is expected to increase combustion turbine generation capacity by 750 MW at a cost not to exceed approximately $503 million per project. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent approximately $132 million on these expansions in total and expects to spend an additional $874 million. Both projects are planned to enter commercial operations by the end of CY 2023.
During 2019, the TVA Board approved approximately 500 MW for an aeroderivative combustion turbine project, at a cost not to exceed $499 million. In 2020, the project began at TVA’s Johnsonville site. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent approximately $1 million on this project and expects to spend an additional $498 million. The project is expected to enter commercial operations by the end of CY 2024.
Coal Combustion Residuals Facilities. TVA has committed to a programmatic approach for the elimination of wet storage of coal combustion residuals ("CCR") within the TVA service area. Under this program ("CCR Conversion Program"), TVA is converting all operational coal-fired plants to dry CCR storage and closing all wet storage facilities.
Dry generation and dewatering projects. Conversion of coal plant CCR wet processes to dry generation or dewatering is complete at Bull Run, Shawnee, and Kingston Fossil Plant ("Kingston"). Construction at Gallatin Fossil Plant ("Gallatin") was
completed during 2020. Construction of dewatering and dry generation facilities is underway at Cumberland Fossil Plant ("Cumberland") and is scheduled for completion in the third quarter of 2021.
Landfills. TVA has made strategic decisions to build and maintain lined and permitted dry storage facilities on TVA-owned property at some TVA locations, allowing these facilities to operate beyond existing dry storage capacity. Lined and permitted landfills are completed and operational at Bull Run, Kingston, and Gallatin; a lined and permitted landfill at Shawnee is currently under construction with completion projected for March 2021; construction of a lined and permitted landfill at Cumberland is expected to start in 2021; and TVA is designing and permitting a lateral expansion of the existing landfill at Gallatin. TVA has withdrawn its permit applications for a new lined landfill at Bull Run and has stopped construction of a permitted lined landfill expansion at Kingston until TVA can determine its need for these landfills with certainty. Construction of additional lined and dry storage facilities may occur to support future business requirements.
Wet CCR impoundment closures. TVA is working to close wet CCR impoundments in accordance with federal and state requirements. Closure project schedules and costs are driven by the selected closure methodology (such as closure-in-place or closure-by-removal). Closure initiation dates are driven by environmental regulations. TVA's predominant closure methodology is closure-in-place, with exceptions at certain facilities. TVA issued an environmental impact statement ("EIS") in June 2016 that addresses the closure of CCR impoundments at TVA's coal-fired plants. TVA issued its associated Record of Decision in July 2016. Although the EIS was designed to be programmatic in order to address the mode of impoundment closures, it specifically addressed closure methods at 10 impoundments. TVA subsequently decided to close those impoundments. The method of final closure for each of these facilities will depend on various factors, including approval by appropriate state regulators. Additional site-specific NEPA studies will be conducted as other facilities are designated for closure. See Note 10 — Asset Retirement Obligations.
Groundwater monitoring. Compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's ("EPA's") CCR rule ("CCR Rule") as well as other requirements will require additional engineering and analysis as well as implementation of a comprehensive groundwater monitoring program. As further analyses are performed, including evaluation of monitoring results, there is the potential for additional costs for investigation and/or remediation. TVA expects to continue to evaluate and update these cost estimates.
In compliance with the CCR Rule, TVA published the results of additional groundwater testing at TVA's CCR facilities on March 1, 2019. The results included values above groundwater protection standards for some constituents at several CCR units. TVA will have to cease sending CCR and non-CCR wastestreams to unlined CCR surface impoundments as soon as possible but no later than the applicable CCR Rule date. The EPA has published a final rule that changes the deadline to cease sending CCR and non-CCR wastestreams to unlined CCR impoundments and to initiate closure or retrofit the units from October 31, 2020 to April 11, 2021. The final rule establishes a process for a utility to seek site-specific approval from the EPA to continue to use the unlined CCR impoundments based on meeting certain criteria. TVA evaluated and published Assessment of Corrective Measures reports to its CCR website in August 2019. TVA is continuing to publish periodic reports on additional groundwater testing at its CCR facilities; the latest reports were published on February 28, 2020 and August 28, 2020. Under the CCR Rule, based on the results of the assessment of corrective measures, TVA is required to select a remedy as soon as feasible. TVA continues to investigate and evaluate remedies and will continue posting semi-annual progress reports on the status of remedy selection.
As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent approximately $2.1 billion on its CCR Conversion Program. TVA expects to spend an additional $902 million on the CCR Conversion Program through 2025. These estimates may change depending on the final closure method selected for each facility. Once the CCR Conversion Program is completed, TVA will continue to undertake certain CCR projects, including building new landfill cells under existing permits and closing existing cells once they reach capacity.
TVA was involved in two lawsuits concerning the CCR facilities at Gallatin. One of these cases was decided in TVA's favor by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, and the other case was resolved by the entry of a consent order that became effective July 24, 2019. Under the consent order, TVA agreed to close the existing wet ash impoundments by removal, either to an onsite landfill or to an offsite facility. TVA may also consider options for beneficial reuse of the CCR. TVA has submitted the removal plan to the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation ("TDEC") and other applicable parties pursuant to the consent order. See Note 10 — Asset Retirement Obligations.
In October 2019, TDEC released amendments to its regulations which govern solid waste disposal facilities, including TVA's active CCR facilities covered by a solid waste disposal permit and those which closed pursuant to a TDEC approved closure plan. Such facilities are generally subject to a 30-year post-closure care period during which the owner or operator must undertake certain activities, including monitoring and maintaining the facility. The amendments, among other things, add an additional 50-year period after the end of the post-closure care period, require TVA to submit recommendations as to what activities must be performed during this 50-year period to protect human health and the environment, and require TVA to submit revised closure plans every 10 years.
Potential Liability Associated with Workers' Exposure to CCR Materials. In response to the 2008 ash spill at Kingston, TVA hired Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. ("Jacobs") to oversee certain aspects of the cleanup. After the cleanup was
completed, Jacobs was sued in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Tennessee ("Eastern District") by employees of a contractor involved in the cleanup and family members of some of the employees. The plaintiffs alleged that Jacobs had failed to take or provide proper health precautions and misled workers about the health risks associated with exposure to coal fly ash, which is a CCR material. The plaintiffs alleged that exposure to the fly ash caused a variety of significant health issues and illnesses, including in some cases death. The case was split into two phases, with the first phase considering, among other issues, general causation and the second determining specific causation and damages. On November 7, 2018, a jury hearing the first phase returned a verdict in favor of the plaintiffs, including determinations that Jacobs failed to adhere to its contract with TVA or the Site Wide Safety and Health Plan; Jacobs failed to provide reasonable care to the plaintiffs; and Jacobs's failures were capable of causing a list of medical conditions, ranging from hypertension to cancer. On January 11, 2019, the Eastern District referred the parties to mediation. Mediation has concluded, but the parties did not resolve the matter. The litigation will now proceed to the second phase on the question of whether Jacobs's breaches were the specific medical cause of the plaintiffs' alleged injuries and damages.
Other contractor employees and family members have filed lawsuits against Jacobs that are pending in the Eastern District. These pending lawsuits are stayed and raise similar claims to those being litigated in the case referenced above.
While TVA is not a party to any of these lawsuits, TVA may potentially have an indemnity obligation to reimburse Jacobs for some amounts that Jacobs is required to pay. TVA will continue monitoring the litigation to determine whether these or similar cases could have broader implications for the utility industry. TVA does not expect any potential liability to have a material adverse impact on its results of operations or financial condition. See Note 19 — Contingencies and Legal Proceedings — Contingencies.
River Management. The Tennessee Valley experienced the wettest year on record in CY 2020 and experienced above normal rainfall and runoff for the first quarter of 2021 helping TVA meet its river system commitments, including managing minimum river flows for navigation, generating low-cost hydroelectric power, maintaining water quality and water supply, and providing recreational opportunities for the Tennessee Valley. In addition, having cool water available helps TVA to meet thermal compliance and support normal operation of TVA's nuclear and fossil-fueled plants, while oxygenating water helps fish species remain healthy. Rainfall and runoff in the Tennessee Valley during the first quarter of 2021 were 105 percent and 135 percent of normal, respectively.
Small Modular Reactors. In 2015, the DOE entered into an Interagency Agreement with TVA to support site characterization activities and the development of an Early Site Permit Application ("ESPA") for a generic small modular reactor ("SMR"). The ESPA is based on the potential construction and operation of two or more SMR units at TVA's Clinch River Site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. TVA submitted the ESPA for review by the NRC in 2016. NRC staff concluded their review and the permit was issued by the NRC in December 2019. The permit is valid through 2039 and therefore provides TVA a great deal of flexibility to make new nuclear decisions based on energy needs and economic factors.
TVA is in the process of evaluating new nuclear technology options and potential deployment scenarios. TVA is exploring advanced reactor designs that would lead to economically viable electricity generating options that can compete with alternatives in the 2030s and beyond. In addition, TVA has partnerships in place through memorandums of understanding that allow for collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee. Any decision to construct an SMR would require approval by the TVA Board and the NRC. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent $84 million on work regarding SMRs, including work to complete the ESPA for the Clinch River Site, of which the DOE had reimbursed TVA $28 million. Additional expenditures will be determined based on future project development.
System Operations Center. A new system operations center has been approved for $255 million. The new secured facility is being built to accommodate a new energy management system and to adapt to new regulatory requirements. The facility is expected to be constructed by the second quarter of 2023 and fully operational by 2024. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent approximately $50 million on the project and expects to spend an additional $205 million.
Dam Safety and Remediation Initiatives
Assurance Initiatives. TVA has an established dam safety program, which includes procedures based on the Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety, with the objective of reducing the risk of a dam safety event. The program is comprised of various engineering activities for all of TVA's dams including safety reassessments using modern industry criteria and the new probable maximum flood and site-specific seismic load cases. One aspect of the guidelines is that dam structures will be periodically assessed to assure that TVA's dams meet current design criteria. These assessments include material sampling of the dam and foundational structures and detailed engineering analysis. TVA will continue preventative and ongoing maintenance as a part of this safety program.
Boone Dam Remediation. In 2015, a sinkhole was discovered near the base of the earthen embankment at Boone Dam, and a small amount of water and sediment was found seeping from the river bank below the dam. TVA identified underground pathways contributing to the seepage and prepared a plan to repair the dam, which consists of the construction of a composite seepage barrier wall in the dam's earthen embankment. TVA has completed grouting and construction of an upstream and downstream buttress. Installation of the concrete cut-off wall elements is in process.
As construction of the embankment repair project continues, the estimated cost and duration continue to be refined. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent $275 million related to this project and expects to spend an additional $160 million through 2023. TVA expects the reservoir to return to normal operations in 2022 and is continuing to work with the community to help mitigate local impacts of the extended drawdown.
Pickwick South Embankment Remediation. Reassessments of Pickwick Landing Dam ("Pickwick") found low safety factors for post-earthquake stability indicating that the dam is at significant risk for slope stability failure following a seismic event in portions of the south embankment. Slope stability failure could lead to a breach of the south embankment and loss of the reservoir, resulting in loss of life and damage to property downstream, disruption to navigation, and loss of generation and recreation.
TVA is upgrading the south embankment by constructing berms on the upstream and downstream slopes. Construction began in the spring of 2019, and the project is currently estimated to be complete in 2022. As of December 31, 2020, TVA had spent $118 million related to this project and expects to spend an additional $14 million through 2022.
Regulatory Compliance
Steam-Electric Effluent Guidelines. In 2015, the EPA published a final rule revising the existing steam-electric effluent limitation guidelines ("ELGs"). The ELGs updated the existing technology-based water discharge limitations for power plants. Compliance with new requirements was required in the 2018-2023 timeframe and necessitated major upgrades to wastewater treatment systems at all coal-fired plants. Dry fly ash handling was mandated by the rule. The rule also required either dry bottom ash handling systems or "no discharge" recycle of bottom ash transport waters, and new technology-based limits on flue gas desulfurization ("FGD") (scrubber) wastewater required primary physical/chemical treatment and secondary biological treatment to meet extremely low limits for arsenic, mercury, and selenium.
The EPA published a rule in 2017, postponing certain compliance/applicability dates to provide the EPA time to review and revise, as necessary, the 2015 ELGs for FGD wastewater and bottom ash transport water. The EPA delayed the compliance dates for these two waste streams from the 2018-2023 timeframe to 2020-2023. However, the 2018-2023 applicability dates and the accompanying requirements for fly ash transport water, flue gas mercury control wastewater, and gasification wastewater remain unchanged. While the EPA was reconsidering the limits for FGD wastewater and bottom ash transport water, states issued National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System ("NPDES") permits for all of TVA's active coal facilities based on the 2015 ELGs, recognizing that the permits may need to be reopened to incorporate modifications to those ELGs.
In October 2020, the EPA issued final revised ELGs for bottom ash transport water and FGD wastewater. The primary impact of these regulations for TVA is on the operation of existing coal-fired generation facilities. The revised ELGs could impact long-term investment decisions being made relative to the long-term compliance and operability of these plants. The revisions may require TVA to install additional wastewater treatment systems for FGD wastewater and bottom ash transport water, and TVA could incur substantial costs to comply with the new rule. In addition, the revised ELGs could cause TVA to reduce utilization of its coal-fired generation facilities or even close such facilities. The revision also includes a subcategory for which Cumberland would qualify that provides TVA greater flexibility in meeting the ELGs. The revision includes two additional subcategories for low utilization units and units that cease coal combustion by the end of 2028. TVA will evaluate the applicability of those subcategories to its plants as appropriate. Petitions for judicial review of the October 2020 ELG rule were filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ("D.C. Circuit") and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit (the “Fourth Circuit”) and have been consolidated in the Fourth Circuit in the case Appalachian Voices, et al. v. EPA.
Allen Groundwater Investigation. The CCR Rule required TVA to implement a comprehensive groundwater monitoring program at units subject to the rule. As a result of this groundwater monitoring program, TVA reported to TDEC in 2017 elevated levels of arsenic, lead, and fluoride in groundwater samples collected from two shallow-aquifer groundwater monitoring wells around the Allen East Ash Disposal Area. TVA, under the oversight of TDEC, conducted a remedial investigation into the nature and extent of the contamination. In 2018, TVA submitted a draft Remedial Investigation Report to TDEC which was revised after discussions with TDEC and additional investigation. TVA submitted the Final Updated Remedial Investigation Report to TDEC in 2019.
The remedial investigation confirmed that the high arsenic, fluoride, and lead concentrations are limited to the shallow alluvial aquifer in the north and south areas of the Allen East Ash Disposal Area. These areas are not adversely impacting the Memphis aquifer, which is the source of the public drinking water supply. All samples taken from the Memphis aquifer through TVA production wells were below the EPA drinking water standards. As the result of a pumping test conducted on TVA production wells at the nearby Allen Combined Cycle Plant ("Allen CC") by the United States Geological Survey and the University of Memphis, TVA is committed to not operating these production wells until additional data supports safe use. TVA constructed water tanks on site and is purchasing cooling water from MLGW. The use of water tanks rather than the wells may impose some operational restrictions on the Allen CC due to the lower availability of cooling water.
TVA is taking steps to remediate the groundwater at the East Ash Disposal Area. The Interim Response Action Plan will include a groundwater extraction system and a groundwater treatment system. TVA will also continue to dewater the East Ash
Disposal Area and treat the water before it is discharged to the NPDES outfall. A feasibility study to evaluate remedial actions for the site was submitted to TDEC on September 4, 2020. A virtual public meeting to present the Interim Response Action as the Proposed Plan for the site was held on November 17, 2020. The public was invited to review the remediation documents and encouraged to comment on the Proposed Plan during the public comment period. After public comments are considered, TDEC will issue a Record of Decision. TVA is also preparing a Remedial Action Plan to move forward with the remediation at the site.
TVA's Remedial Investigation/Interim Response Action Groundwater Monitoring Plan is reviewed and modified annually. The 2020 Remedial Investigation/Interim Response Action Groundwater Monitoring Plan was approved by TDEC in May 2020. TVA continues to sample the monitoring wells at the site as described by the plan quarterly. TVA prepares a memorandum after each quarterly event and prepares an annual report to evaluate the sampling results. The 2019 Remedial Investigation/Interim Response Action Groundwater Monitoring report was submitted to TDEC on July 2, 2020. The 2020 Remedial Investigation/Interim Response Action Groundwater Monitoring report is in development.
TVA has evaluated closure options for the Allen East Ash Disposal Area, as well as the nearby West Ash Impoundment, through an EIS pursuant to NEPA. In March 2019, TVA released its public scoping report, which eliminated closure-in-place as an alternative. TVA published the final EIS on March 13, 2020 and its Record of Decision on April 14, 2020, which documents the final decision regarding the closure method for the CCR units at the Allen Fossil Plant. TVA has decided to remove CCR from the above identified areas to an existing permitted offsite landfill.
Federal Contracting and Hiring Practices. On August 3, 2020, the Trump administration issued an "Executive Order ("EO") on Aligning Federal Contracting and Hiring Practices With the Interests of American Workers." Among other things, the EO directs federal agencies to review contracts awarded in 2018 and 2019 to assess (i) whether temporary foreign labor was used and impacts from such use, and (ii) whether any offshoring occurred and its impacts. The EO also directs agencies to review employment policies for compliance with specific laws. TVA conducted a review and reported a summary of its findings to the Office of Management and Budget ("OMB") in December 2020.
Buy American Executive Order. On January 25, 2021, President Biden issued EO 14005, “Ensuring the Future Is Made in All of America by All of America’s Workers.” EO 14005 imposes new reporting and procedural requirements, as well as additional executive oversight, for federal agency purchases of foreign goods and services. It also directs the Federal Acquisition Regulatory Council to consider proposing regulatory amendments (for notice, comment, and potential promulgation) that could further restrict federal agencies’ ability to buy foreign goods and services in some circumstances.
Ratemaking
TVA, LPCs, and directly served industries have worked collaboratively in recent years to develop changes to rates that focus on TVA's long-term pricing efforts and the changing needs of customers in the Tennessee Valley. These changes have improved pricing by better aligning rates with underlying cost drivers and by sending improved pricing signals, while maintaining competitive industrial rates and keeping residential rates affordable.
TVA and LPCs continue to work together to meet the changing needs of consumers around the Tennessee Valley. In 2019, the TVA Board approved a Partnership Agreement option that better aligns the length of LPC power contracts with TVA's long-term commitments. Under the partnership arrangement, the LPC power contracts have a 20-year termination notice provision that renews each year after their initial effective date, contingent upon certain circumstances, including limited rate increases going forward. Participating LPCs will receive benefits including a 3.1 percent wholesale bill credit in exchange for their long-term commitment, which enables TVA to recover its long-term financial commitments over a commensurate period. In June 2020, TVA provided participating LPCs a flexibility option that allows them to locally generate up to approximately five percent of average total hourly energy sales over the prior five years in order to meet their individual customers' needs. As of February 11, 2021, 142 LPCs had signed the 20-year Partnership Agreement with TVA, and 68 LPCs had signed a Flexibility Agreement.
Safeguarding Assets
Physical Security — Non-Nuclear Asset Protection. TVA utilizes a variety of security technologies, security awareness activities, and security personnel to prevent sabotage, vandalism, and thefts. Any of these activities could negatively impact the ability of TVA to generate, transmit, and deliver power to its customers. TVA's Police and Emergency Management personnel are active participants with numerous professional and peer physical security organizations in both the electric industry and law enforcement communities.
Physical attacks on transmission facilities across the country have heightened awareness of the need to physically protect facilities. TVA continues to work with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation ("NERC"), the SERC Reliability Corporation, the North American Transmission Forum, and other utilities to implement industry approved recommendations and standards.
Nuclear Security. Nuclear security is carried out in accordance with federal regulations as set forth by the NRC. These regulations are designed for the protection of TVA's nuclear power plants, the public, and employees from the threat of radiological sabotage and other nuclear-related terrorist threats. TVA has security forces to guard against such threats.
Cybersecurity. TVA operates in a highly regulated environment with respect to cybersecurity. TVA's cybersecurity program aligns or complies with the Federal Information Security Management Act, the NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection requirements, and the NRC requirements for cybersecurity, as well as industry best practices. As part of the U.S. government, TVA coordinates with and works closely with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency ("CISA") and the U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team ("US-CERT"). CISA serves as the agency assisting other federal entities in defending against threats and securing critical infrastructure. US-CERT functions as a liaison between the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the public and private sectors to coordinate responses to security threats.
The risk of cybersecurity events such as malicious code attacks, unauthorized access attempts, and social engineering attempts continues to intensify. While TVA and its third-party vendors and service providers have been, and will likely continue to be, subjected to such attacks and attempts to disrupt operations, to date the attacks have not impacted TVA's ability to operate as planned. See Item 1A, Risk Factors — Cybersecurity Risks — TVA's facilities and information infrastructure may not operate as planned due to cyber threats to TVA's assets and operations in the Annual Report.
In December 2020, TVA was notified of the SolarWinds breach by multiple sources including CISA. TVA cybersecurity personnel immediately responded to determine any impact and took measures intended to protect TVA from potential risks from the compromised software. TVA continues to receive and evaluate new information regarding the event and take the necessary actions to protect the computing environment. This event has not had a significant or material impact on business or operations.
Over the last few years, there has been an increase of malicious cyber activity across all industries, including the energy sector. TVA has observed a significant increase in malicious activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic including phishing campaigns and malicious websites. These types of malicious activity are occurring across the industry and have also been observed by TVA's external vendors, stakeholders, and partners. This activity has caused the need for heightened awareness and preparedness. TVA is leveraging federal and other partners to better identify, detect, protect, and respond to these potential attacks. While there have been incidents of phishing and attempted fraud against TVA and its vendors and service providers, these events have not had a significant or material impact on business or operations.
Transmission Assets. In addition to physical and cybersecurity attacks, TVA's transmission assets are vulnerable to various types of electrically charged energy disruptions such as those from geomagnetic disturbances ("GMDs") and electromagnetic pulses ("EMPs"). Because the effects of GMD and EMP are similar, they are often considered together. In September 2016, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ("FERC") approved a new standard to address GMD events, and in March 2020, FERC approved a revision to the standard. TVA has met the requirements of the original standard and subsequent revisions, and has evaluated the effects of solar storms ranging from NERC's reference case to possible extreme levels. TVA continues as an active participant with NERC in this field. The most serious threats from EMP are those caused by high-altitude nuclear explosions. Like others in the industry, TVA is coordinating with federal and state authorities, NERC, Electric Power Research Institute, and other grid owners and operators to address this concern.
Bulk-Power System Assets. On May 1, 2020, the Trump administration issued EO 13920, "Securing the United States Bulk-Power System." Among other things, the EO prohibits the acquisition or installation of any bulk-power system electric equipment where the transaction (1) involves any property in which any foreign country or a national thereof has any interest and (2) poses an undue risk to the bulk-power system in, or national security of, the United States. Whether a bulk-power system electric equipment acquisition or installation is prohibited will depend on determinations by the Secretary of DOE. On December 17, 2020, DOE issued a Prohibition Order Securing Critical Defense Facilities (“DOE Order”). The DOE Order, among other things, prohibits electric utilities that own or operate Defense Critical Electric Infrastructure (“DCEI”), as defined by section 215A(a)(4) of the Federal Power Act, from acquiring, importing, transferring, or installing certain bulk-power system electric equipment that (a) has been manufactured or supplied by a person owned by, controlled by, or subject to the jurisdiction or direction of the People’s Republic of China, and (b) is for use as a component of DCEI serving critical defense facilities. The DOE Order originally took effect on January 16, 2021. On January 20, 2021, the Biden administration suspended EO 13920 for 90 days, and as a result the DOE Order is also suspended for the same period. EO 13990, "Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science To Tackle the Climate Crisis," directs DOE and OMB to consider whether to recommend the issuance of a replacement EO to EO 13920. At this time, it is uncertain to what extent EO 13920 or a future EO that may potentially address risks associated with the bulk-power system may impact TVA's operations.
Environmental Matters
TVA's activities, particularly its power generation activities, are subject to comprehensive regulation under environmental laws and regulations relating to air pollution, water pollution, and management and disposal of solid and hazardous wastes, among other matters. Emissions from all TVA-owned and operated units (including small combustion turbine units of less than 25 MW) have been reduced from historic peaks. Emissions of nitrogen oxide ("NOx") have been reduced by 96 percent below peak 1995 levels and emissions of sulfur dioxide ("SO2") have been reduced by 99 percent below 1977 levels
through CY 2019. For CY 2019, TVA's emission of carbon dioxide ("CO2") from its sources was 47 million tons, a 55 percent reduction from 2005 levels. This amount includes 2,383 tons from units rated at less than 25 MW. To remain consistent and to align with the EPA's reporting requirements, TVA intends to continue reporting CO2 emissions on a calendar year basis.
Clean Air Act
The Clean Air Act ("CAA") establishes a comprehensive program to protect and improve the nation's air quality and control sources of air pollution. The major CAA programs that affect TVA's power generation activities are described below.
National Ambient Air Quality Standards. The CAA requires the EPA to set National Ambient Air Quality Standards ("NAAQS") for certain air pollutants. The EPA has done this for ozone, particulate matter ("PM"), SO2, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and lead. Over the years, the EPA has made the NAAQS more stringent. Each state must develop a plan to be approved by the EPA for achieving and maintaining NAAQS within its borders. These plans impose limits on emissions from pollution sources, including TVA fossil fuel-fired plants. Areas meeting a NAAQS are designated as attainment areas. Areas not meeting a NAAQS are designated as non-attainment areas, and more stringent requirements apply in those areas, including stricter controls on industrial facilities and more complicated permitting processes. TVA fossil fuel-fired plants can be impacted by these requirements. All TVA generating units are located in areas designated as in attainment with NAAQS.
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. The EPA issued the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule ("CSAPR") in July 2011 requiring several states in the eastern U.S. to improve air quality by reducing power plant emissions that contribute to pollution in other states. In 2016, the EPA issued an update to CSAPR to address cross-state air pollution (the "CSAPR Update Rule"). The EPA subsequently issued an additional rule to resolve any remaining cross-state air pollutant issues ("CSAPR Close-Out Rule"). The D.C. Circuit has remanded a portion of the CSAPR Update Rule back to the EPA to address its failure to require upwind states to eliminate substantial contributions to downwind non-attainment areas by the statutory deadline. The D.C. Circuit also vacated the CSAPR Close-Out Rule. On October 30, 2020, the EPA published the proposed revisions to the CSAPR Update Rule in the Federal Register, and the revisions must be finalized by March 30, 2021. TVA cannot predict the impact of this proposal to TVA's operations until the rulemaking is complete.
Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for Electric Utility Units. On April 16, 2020, the EPA issued a final rule which revokes the agency's earlier finding that regulation of hazardous air pollutants ("HAP") emitted from steam electric utilities is appropriate and necessary. The rule does not remove electric generating units from the source categories listed under Section 112 of the CAA nor does it rescind the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards ("MATS") requirements. Additionally, the EPA determined that further restrictions on HAP emissions are not warranted based on a residual risk and technology review for this source category. TVA does not anticipate that the final rule will change TVA's MATS compliance requirements or strategy. Certain states and environmental groups have filed petitions in the D.C. Circuit challenging the EPA's finding that regulating HAPs from electric generating units is not appropriate and necessary. TVA cannot predict the outcome of these judicial petitions at this time.
Environmental Agreements. See Note 19 — Contingencies and Legal Proceedings — Legal Proceedings — Environmental Agreements for a discussion of the Environmental Agreements, which discussion is incorporated herein by reference.
Acid Rain Program. The Acid Rain Program is intended to help reduce emissions of SO2 and NOx, which are the primary pollutants implicated in the formation of acid rain. The program includes a cap-and-trade emission reduction program for SO2 emissions from power plants. TVA continues to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions from its coal-fired plants, and the SO2 allowances allocated to TVA under the Acid Rain Program are sufficient to cover the operation of its coal-fired plants. In the TVA service area, the limitations imposed on SO2 and NOx emissions by the CSAPR program are more stringent than the Acid Rain Program. Therefore, TVA does not anticipate that the Acid Rain Program will impose any additional material requirements on TVA.
Regional Haze Program. The EPA issued the Clean Air Visibility Rule, which required certain older sources to install best available retrofit technology. No additional controls or lower operating limits are required for any TVA units to meet best available retrofit technology requirements. In January 2017, the EPA published the final rule that changed some of the requirements for Regional Haze State Implementation Plans ("SIPs"). Specific impacts cannot be determined until future Regional Haze SIPs are developed for the next decennial review under the visibility haze provisions of the CAA. States must submit their Regional Haze SIPs to the EPA by July 31, 2021.
Opacity. Opacity, or visible emissions, measures the denseness (or color) of power plant plumes and has traditionally been used by states as a means of monitoring good maintenance and operation of particulate control equipment. Under some conditions, retrofitting a unit with additional equipment to better control SO2 and NOx emissions can adversely affect opacity performance, and TVA and other utilities have addressed this issue. The evaluation of utilities' compliance with opacity requirements is coming under increased scrutiny, especially during periods of startup, shutdown, and malfunction. Historically, SIPs developed under the CAA typically excluded periods of startup, shutdowns, and malfunctions, but in June 2015, the EPA finalized a rule to eliminate such exclusions. The EPA rule required states to modify their implementation plans by November 2016. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi submitted implementation plans, but Alabama has not. Environmental petitioners and several states filed petitions for judicial review of the EPA final rule before the D.C. Circuit. In April 2017, the D.C. Circuit, at
the request of the new EPA Administrator, ordered this litigation to be suspended pending the EPA's review to determine whether to reconsider all or part of the rule. On October 9, 2020, the EPA issued a guidance memorandum that supersedes and replaces policy statements outlined in the EPA's June 2015 rule. TVA does not expect significant impacts from these rule changes at the state level.
New York Petition to Address Impacts from Upwind High Emitting Sources. In March 2018, the State of New York filed a petition with the EPA under Section 126(b) of the CAA to address ozone impacts on New York from the NOx emissions from sources emitting at least 400 tons of NOx in CY 2017 from nine states including Kentucky. The New York petition requests that the EPA require daily NOx limits for utility units with selective catalytic reduction systems ("SCRs") such as Shawnee Units 1 and 4 and emission reductions from utility units without SCRs such as Shawnee Units 2, 3 and 5-9. Kentucky utility unit NOx emissions are already limited by the CSAPR Update Rule and are declining, and current EPA modeling projects no additional requirements to reduce Kentucky NOx emissions are necessary. In September 2019, the EPA finalized its denial of New York's petition because the state did not demonstrate, and the EPA could not independently establish, that sources in the states listed in the petition contribute to exceedances of the 2008 and 2015 ozone NAAQS in New York. The State of New York filed a petition in the D.C. Circuit for judicial review of the EPA's denial of the petition. In July 2020, the D.C. Circuit vacated the EPA's denial of the petition and remanded the petition to the EPA for reconsideration. Specific impacts to TVA cannot be determined until the EPA takes further action on the petition.
Affordable Clean Energy Rule. In June 2019, the EPA finalized the final Affordable Clean Energy ("ACE") rule and repealed the EPA's previous regulation addressing greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired units. The ACE rule established guidelines for GHG emissions from existing coal-fired units based on efficiency improvements that can be achieved at those units at reasonable cost. Several industry, environmental, and state and local petitioners filed for judicial review of the ACE rule. On January 19, 2021, the D.C. Circuit vacated and remanded the ACE rule, holding, among other things, that the ACE rule rests on the erroneous legal premise that the text of the CAA expressly foreclosed consideration of emission reduction measures other than those that apply to the individual source. TVA is unable to predict the future course of this litigation on appeal, nor the direction that the EPA may take in the future to regulate GHG emissions from coal-fired units.
New Source Performance Standards. In December 2018, the EPA proposed revisions to the GHG emission standards for new, modified, and reconstructed electric utility generating units that were finalized by the EPA in October 2015. For coal-fired units, the EPA proposes to revise the current new source standards such that carbon capture and sequestration technology is no longer necessary to meet the standards of performance that reflect the best system of emission reduction. The resulting limits are less stringent than limits under the current rule and can be met by modern coal-fired units (e.g., supercritical steam generators) in combination with best operating practices, but without carbon capture and sequestration. The EPA is not proposing to revise the new source performance standard for GHG emission from gas-fired units. If finalized as proposed, the revisions are not expected to significantly impact TVA since TVA does not currently plan to construct, modify, or reconstruct any coal-fired units.
Climate Change
Executive Actions. In March 2017, the Trump administration issued Executive Order ("EO") 13783, "Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth." The EO reversed or altered many actions taken by the federal government in the last four years of the Obama Administration to address climate change and mandated that federal agencies review existing regulations and actions that potentially burden energy development and use. EO 13783 did not, however, mandate that the EPA reconsider its finding under the CAA that GHG emissions cause climate change and therefore endanger public health and the environment.
Implementation of EO 13783 has resulted in the replacement of the Clean Power Plan ("CPP") rule for existing fossil generation units by the ACE rule and revisions to the GHG emission standards for new, modified, and reconstructed electric utility generating units. As discussed above, the ACE rule was recently vacated.
In May 2018, EO 13834, "Efficient Federal Operations," was signed. EO 13834 emphasized meeting statutory requirements and gave agencies greater flexibility and discretion to decide how best to improve operations in order to "optimize energy and environmental performance, reduce waste, and cut costs." It called on the White House Council of Environmental Quality to streamline pre-existing environmental orders by "refocusing agencies on cost-effectively meeting mandates and goals" established by law. The order sought to consolidate requirements related to energy and water efficiency, high performance buildings, renewable energy consumption, and federal vehicle fleet management. TVA consistently seeks to improve its operations in order to optimize energy and environmental performance and did not experience any significant changes in its planning or operations as a result of the EO.
On January 20, 2021, President Biden issued EO 13990, “Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science To Tackle the Climate Crisis.” EO 13990 revoked EO 13783 and most provisions of EO 13834, including the provisions discussed above, and directs federal agencies to review and revise regulations consistent with broad policy goals to improve public health and the environment, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and prioritize environmental justice. In addition, on January 27, 2021, President Biden issued EO 14008, “Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad.” Among other things, EO 14008 expresses the following policies of the federal government: (1) to organize and deploy the full
capacity of its agencies to combat the climate crisis to implement a government-wide approach that reduces climate pollution in every sector of the economy, (2) to align the management of federal procurement and real property, public lands and waters, and financial programs to support robust climate action, (3) to use all available procurement authorities to achieve or facilitate (a) a carbon pollution-free electricity sector no later than 2035 and (b) clean and zero-emission vehicles for federal, state, local, and tribal government fleets, (4) to put the U.S. on a path to achieve net-zero emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050, (5) to accelerate the deployment of clean energy and transmission projects in an environmentally stable manner, (6) to ensure that, to the extent consistent with applicable law, federal funding is not directly subsidizing fossil fuels, (7) to promote the flow of capital toward climate-aligned investments and away from high-carbon investments, and (8) improve air and water quality. TVA is closely monitoring these developments and aside from the directive to update TVA’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan, specific impacts on TVA cannot be determined at this time.
International Accords. In September 2016, the U.S. formally accepted the Paris Agreement. The agreement met the threshold of at least 55 countries that account for at least 55 percent of global GHG emissions and formally entered into force in November 2016. On November 4, 2019, the U.S. formally notified the United Nations that it would withdraw from the agreement. Under the terms of the agreement, the effective date for the withdrawal was November 4, 2020. On January 20, 2021, President Biden formally accepted the Paris Agreement on behalf of the U.S. Specific impacts to TVA cannot be determined at this time.
In response to the Trump administration's Paris withdrawal announcement, 25 states have formed the U.S. Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of governors committed to reducing GHG emissions consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. North Carolina and Virginia are the only states in the TVA region that are U.S. Climate Alliance members. Among other commitments, each state commits to implement policies that advance the goals of the Paris Agreement, aiming to reduce GHG emissions by at least 26-28 percent below CY 2005 levels by CY 2025 and to accelerate new and existing policies to reduce carbon pollution and promote clean energy deployment at the state and federal level. In June 2017, U.S. states, cities, and businesses representing more than half of the U.S. economy made a pledge to meet the GHG reduction targets of the Paris Agreement, called "America's Pledge." In September 2020, America's Pledge released its second economy-wide policy analysis with recommendations of how states, cities, businesses, and other stakeholders can influence U.S. decarbonization. It is premature to determine potential impacts to TVA.
Litigation. In addition to legislative activity, climate change issues have been the subject of a number of lawsuits, including lawsuits against TVA. See Note 19 — Contingencies and Legal Proceedings for additional information.
Indirect Consequences of Regulation or Business Trends. Legal, technological, political, and scientific developments regarding climate change may create new opportunities and risks. The potential indirect consequences could include an increase or decrease in electricity demand, increased demand for generation from alternative energy sources, and subsequent impacts to business reputation and public opinion.
Physical Impacts of Climate Change. TVA's Climate Change Adaptation Plan was last updated in July 2020. The goal of the adaptation planning process is to ensure TVA continues to achieve its mission and program goals and to operate in a secure, effective, and efficient manner in a changing climate by integrating climate change adaptation efforts in coordination with state and local partners, tribal governments, and private stakeholders. TVA manages the potential effects of climate change on its mission, programs, and operations within its environmental management processes.
Actions Taken by TVA to Reduce GHG Emissions. TVA has reduced GHG emissions from both its generation stations and its operations. Recent TVA Board actions have focused on TVA's plan to balance its coal-fired generation by increasing its nuclear capacity, modernizing its hydroelectric generation system, increasing natural gas-fired generation, installing emission control equipment on certain of its coal-fired units, increasing its purchases of renewable energy, building solar facilities, and investing in energy efficiency initiatives to reduce energy use in the Tennessee Valley. Additionally, TVA has invested to increase energy efficiency in its operations. The combination of more stringent environmental regulations, lower natural gas prices, and lower demand for energy across the Tennessee Valley has reduced the utilization of coal-fired generation. These factors have resulted in lower CO2 emissions from the TVA system, as previously discussed in this section.
Renewable/Clean Energy Standards
Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia have established enforceable or mandatory requirements for electric utilities to generate a certain amount of electricity from renewable sources. One state within the TVA service area, North Carolina, has a mandatory renewable standard that, while not applying directly to TVA, does apply to TVA's LPCs serving retail customers in that state. TVA's policy is to provide compliance assistance to any distributor of TVA power, and TVA is providing assistance to the covered LPCs that sell TVA power in North Carolina. In 2020, Virginia signed into law the Clean Economy Act. The Act establishes a mandatory requirement for utilities to generate a certain amount of electricity from renewable sources. At this time, TVA is not impacted by the legislation due to the relatively small amount of electricity that TVA provides in Virginia compared to other utilities. Likewise, the Mississippi Public Service Commission adopted an energy efficiency rule applying to electric and natural gas providers in the state, and TVA is supplying information on participation in TVA's energy efficiency programs to support the covered Mississippi LPCs.
Water Quality Control Developments
Cooling Water Intake Structures. In May 2014, the EPA released a final rule under Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act relating to cooling water intake structures ("CWIS") for existing power generating facilities. The rule requires changes in CWIS used to cool the vast majority of coal, gas, and nuclear steam-electric generating plants and a wide range of manufacturing and industrial facilities in the U.S. The final rule requires CWIS to reflect the best technology available for minimizing adverse environmental impacts, primarily by reducing the amount of fish and shellfish that are impinged or entrained at a cooling water intake structure. These new requirements will potentially affect a number of TVA's fossil- and nuclear-fueled facilities and will likely require capital upgrades to ensure compliance. Most TVA facilities are projected to require retrofit of CWIS with "fish-friendly" screens and fish return systems to achieve compliance with the new rule. The rule is being implemented through permits issued under the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System ("NPDES") in Section 402 of the Clean Water Act. State agencies administer the NPDES permit program in most states including those in which TVA's facilities are located. In addition, the responsible state agencies must provide all permit applications to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for a 60-day review prior to public notice and an opportunity to comment during the public notice. As a result, the permit may include requirements for additional studies of threatened and endangered species arising from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service comments and may require additional measures be taken to protect threatened and endangered species and critical habitats directly or indirectly related to the plant cooling water intake. TVA's review of the final rule indicates that the rule offers adequate flexibility for cost-effective compliance. The required compliance timeframe is linked to plant specific NPDES permit renewal cycles (i.e., technology retrofits), and compliance is expected to be required in the CYs 2022-2024 timeframe.
The EPA has never applied the requirements under Section 316(b) to hydroelectric facilities. However, two EPA regions that do not cover TVA's activities are proposing to include Section 316(b) requirements in NPDES permits for hydroelectric facilities in those regions that withdraw water used for cooling purposes. It is not clear whether the requirements will be adopted nationwide or, given the unique features of hydroelectric facilities and the manner in which they withdraw water for cooling purposes, how the best technology available standard would be applied to TVA's hydroelectric facilities. The specific impacts to TVA from this potential policy change cannot be determined at this time.
Hydrothermal Discharges. The EPA and many states continue to focus regulatory attention on potential effects of hydrothermal discharges. Many TVA plants have variances from thermal standards under Section 316(a) of the Clean Water Act that are subject to review as NPDES permits are renewed. Specific data requirements in the future will be determined based on negotiations between TVA and state regulators. If plant thermal limits are made more stringent, TVA may have to install cooling towers at some of its plants and operate installed cooling towers more often. This could result in a substantial cost to TVA.
Steam-Electric Effluent Guidelines. In 2015, the EPA revised existing steam-electric effluent limitation guidelines ("ELGs"), which regulate water discharge pollutants and require the application of certain pollutant control technologies. The 2015 ELGs established more stringent performance standards for existing and new sources and required major upgrades to wastewater treatment options at all coal-fired plants. Compliance with new requirements was originally required in the CYs 2018-2023 timeframe, but the EPA delayed the compliance dates for flue gas desulfurization ("FGD") wastewater and bottom ash transport water until CYs 2020-2023 to allow the EPA time to review and potentially revise the ELGs with regard to these waste streams.
In October 2020, the EPA issued final revised ELGs for bottom ash transport water and FGD wastewater. The primary impact for TVA is on the operation of existing coal-fired generation facilities. The revised ELGs could impact long-term investment decisions being made relative to the long-term compliance and operability of these plants. The revisions may require TVA to install additional wastewater treatment systems for FGD wastewater and bottom ash transport water, and TVA could incur substantial costs to comply with the new rule. In addition, the revised ELGs could cause TVA to reduce utilization of its coal-fired generation facilities or even close such facilities. The revision also includes a subcategory for which Cumberland would qualify that provides TVA greater flexibility in meeting the ELGs. The revision includes two additional subcategories for low utilization units and units that cease coal combustion by the end of 2028. TVA will evaluate the applicability of those subcategories to its plants as appropriate. Petitions for judicial review of the October 2020 ELG rule were filed in the D.C. Circuit and the Fourth Circuit and have been consolidated in the Fourth Circuit in the case Appalachian Voices, et al. v. EPA.
Other Clean Water Act Requirements. As is the case in other industrial sectors, TVA and other utilities are also facing more stringent requirements related to the protection of wetlands, reductions in storm water impacts from construction activities, new water quality criteria for nutrients and other pollutants, new wastewater analytical methods, and changes in regulation of pesticide application.
Recent Clean Water Act Decisions
On April 23, 2020, in County of Maui v. Hawaii Wildlife Fund, the Supreme Court held that the Clean Water Act requires a permit when there is a direct discharge of pollutants from a point source to waters of the U.S. and when there is the "functional equivalent" of a direct discharge to such waters. The Court suggested seven factors for determining when such a discharge is the functional equivalent of a direct discharge and acknowledged that the new test would be somewhat difficult to apply, potentially requiring evaluation of multiple factors. The Court noted that "time and distance" of pollutant migration often will be the most important factor but that other relevant factors may include, for example, the nature of the material through which the
pollutant travels and the extent to which the pollutant is diluted or chemically changed as it travels. TVA is evaluating what potential impact the decision and application of the test could have on its operations.
On April 15, 2020, in Northern Plains Resource Council v. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana ("District Court of Montana") vacated the Nationwide Permit ("NWP") 12, which authorizes discharges of dredged or fill material into waters of the U.S., and enjoined the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers from authorizing projects nationwide under the permit. The District Court of Montana's decision was subsequently amended and the injunction was limited to the Keystone XL pipeline. As a result, the decision has no immediate effect on TVA. However, unless the District Court of Montana's decision is reversed on appeal, there remains a risk that NWP 12 will not be available to authorize impacts to waters of the U.S. for TVA projects in the future. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers published notice of a final rule in the Federal Register for the reissuance and modification of NWPs, including NWP 12. The final rule limits the applicability of NWP 12 to oil and natural gas pipelines, modifies certain pre-construction notification requirements, and creates new NWPs for certain utility line activities. The final rule is unlikely to have a material impact on TVA, but the impact cannot be evaluated fully until any legal challenges to the rule are resolved.
Cleanup of Solid and Hazardous Wastes
Liability for releases and cleanup of hazardous substances is imposed under the federal Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act ("CERCLA"), the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act ("RCRA"), and other federal and parallel state statutes. In a manner similar to many other industries and power systems, TVA has generated or used hazardous substances over the years.
TVA Sites. TVA operations at some of its facilities have resulted in releases of contaminates that TVA is addressing including at TVA's Environmental Research Center at Muscle Shoals, Alabama. At December 31, 2020, TVA's estimated liability for cleanup and similar environmental work for those sites for which sufficient information was available to develop a cost estimate is approximately $15 million and was included in Accounts payable and accrued liabilities and Other long-term liabilities on the Consolidated Balance Sheet. In addition, the Environmental Research Center has an active groundwater monitoring program as part of a permitted corrective action plan.
Non-TVA Sites. TVA is aware of alleged hazardous-substance releases at certain non-TVA areas for which it may have some liability. See Note 19 — Contingencies and Legal Proceedings — Environmental Matters.
Coal Combustion Residuals. The EPA published its final rule governing CCR in 2015. The rule regulates CCR as nonhazardous waste under Subtitle D of the RCRA. While states may adopt the rule's requirements into their regulatory programs, the rule does not require states to adopt the requirements. The initial version of the rule provided for self-implementation by utilities and allows enforcement through citizen suits in federal court. The Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act ("WIIN Act") subsequently allowed state or federal-based permitting to implement the CCR rule as an alternative to self-implementation and citizen suits. See Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Key Initiatives and Challenges — Generation Resources — Coal Combustion Residuals Facilities in the Annual Report for a discussion of the impact on TVA's operations, including the cost and timing estimates of related projects.
In July 2018, the EPA issued a final CCR rule which provided additional flexibility and an extension of certain deadlines. In March 2019, the D.C. Circuit granted the EPA's request to remand the final rule to allow the EPA to reconsider the amendments. The remand also allowed the EPA time to complete a new rulemaking to establish revised timelines for unlined impoundments to initiate closure and to reexamine the October 2020 deadline for closing some unlined impoundments. In August 2019, the EPA issued a proposed rule to amend portions of the CCR Rule regarding beneficial use, temporary piles, and public access to information.
On November 4, 2019, the EPA announced a proposed rule that will revise portions of the CCR Rule requiring closure of unlined surface impoundments. The final Part A rule was published in the Federal Register on August 28, 2020, and became effective September 28, 2020. Among other things, the final Part A rule requires all unlined CCR surface impoundments to stop receiving CCR and non-CCR wastestreams and to initiate closure or retrofit by no later than April 11, 2021. Additionally, the final rule provides a process for a utility to seek site-specific approval from the EPA to continue to use the unlined CCR surface impoundment until October 15, 2023, and possibly longer under certain circumstances. The final rule also includes requirements that enhance the public's access to groundwater monitoring and corrective action reports. TVA does not currently anticipate the final rule will have a significant impact because TVA is already planning to close its unlined CCR surface impoundments by the regulatory deadline and already makes groundwater monitoring and corrective action reports publicly available. A separate final Part B rule was published in the Federal Register on November 12, 2020. This rule provides an alternative liner demonstration procedure for utilities with clay lined units which are being forced to close under the Part A rule. However, TVA does not have any units which qualify for this demonstration.
In August 2015, the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation ("TDEC") issued an order that (1) established a process for TDEC to oversee TVA's implementation of the EPA's CCR rule and to ensure coordination and compliance with Tennessee laws and regulations that govern the management of CCR and (2) required TVA to investigate and
assess CCR contamination risks at seven of TVA's eight coal-fired plants in Tennessee and to remediate any unacceptable risks. The TDEC order does not allege that TVA is violating any CCR regulatory requirements nor does it assess TVA penalties. The TDEC order sets out an iterative process through which TVA and TDEC will identify and evaluate any CCR contamination risks and, if necessary, respond to such risks. Currently, TVA is conducting environmental investigations of the seven sites in accordance with the TDEC-approved Environmental Investigation Plans for each site. Upon the completion of the investigations, TVA will submit an environmental assessment report for each site.
Groundwater Contamination. Environmental groups and state regulatory agencies are increasing their attention on alleged groundwater contamination associated with CCR management activities. As a result, TVA may have to change how it manages CCR at some of its plants, potentially resulting in higher costs. See Part I, Item 2, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Key Initiatives and Challenges — Generation Resources — Coal Combustion Residuals Facilities and — Regulatory Compliance — Allen Groundwater Investigation and Note 10 — Asset Retirement Obligations.
Environmental Investments
From 1970 to 2020, TVA spent approximately $6.8 billion on controls to reduce emissions from its coal-fired power plants. In addition, TVA has reduced emissions by idling or retiring coal-fired units and relying more on cleaner energy resources including natural gas and nuclear generation.
TVA currently anticipates spending significant amounts on environmental projects in the future, including investments in new clean energy generation including renewables to reduce TVA's overall environmental footprint. TVA environmental project expenditures also result from coal-fired plant decommissioning and from effective ash management modernization. Based on TVA's decisions regarding certain coal-fired units, the amount and timing of expenditures could change.
SO2 Emissions and NOx Emissions. To reduce SO2 emissions, TVA operates scrubbers on 18 of its coal-fired units and switched to lower-sulfur coal at certain coal-fired units. To reduce NOx emissions, TVA operates SCRs on 18 coal-fired units, operates low-NOx burners or low-NOx combustion systems on 21 units, optimized combustion on all 25 units, and operates NOx control equipment year round when units are operating (except during start-up, shutdown, and maintenance periods). TVA has also retired 34 of 59 coal-fired units. Except for seven units at Shawnee, the remaining coal-fired units have scrubbers and SCRs.
Particulate Emissions. To reduce particulate emissions of air pollutants, TVA has equipped all of its coal-fired units with scrubbers, mechanical collectors, electrostatic precipitators, and/or bag houses.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions. There could be additional material costs if further reductions of GHGs, including CO2, are mandated by legislative, regulatory, or judicial actions and if more stringent emission reduction requirements for conventional pollutants are established. These costs cannot reasonably be predicted at this time because of the uncertainty of these actions. The EPA may issue regulations establishing more stringent air, water, and waste requirements, and these requirements could result in significant changes in the structure of the U.S. power industry, especially in the eastern half of the country.
Estimated Required Environmental Expenditures
The following table contains information about TVA's current estimates on projects related to environmental laws and regulations:
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Estimated Potential Environmental Expenditures(1)(2)
At December 31, 2020
(in millions)
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Remaining 2021
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2022
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Thereafter(3)(4)
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Total
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Coal Combustion Residual Conversion Program(5)
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$
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267
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$
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224
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$
|
411
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|
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$
|
902
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Clean Air Act control projects(6)
|
21
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|
|
45
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|
|
81
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|
|
147
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Clean Water Act requirements(7)
|
24
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|
|
78
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|
|
71
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|
|
173
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Notes
(1) These estimates are subject to change as additional information becomes available and as regulations change.
(2) These estimates include $99 million, $134 million, and $121 million for the remainder of 2021, 2022, and thereafter, respectively, in capital expenditures.
(3) See Note 19 — Contingencies and Legal Proceedings — Contingencies.
(4) These estimates include expenditures expected to be incurred during 2023, 2024, and 2025.
(5) Includes costs associated with pond closures, conversion of wet to dry handling, and landfill activities. TVA is continuing to evaluate the rules and their impact on its operations, including the cost and timing estimates of related projects. See Part I, Item 2, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Key Initiatives and Challenges — Generation Resources — Coal Combustion Residuals Facilities and Note 10 — Asset Retirement Obligations.
(6) Includes air quality projects that TVA is currently performing to comply with existing air quality regulations, but does not include any projects that may be required to comply with potential GHG regulations or transmission upgrades.
(7) Includes projects that TVA is currently planning to comply with revised rules under the CWA (regarding CWIS and ELGs for steam electric power plants).
Legal Proceedings
From time to time, TVA is party to or otherwise involved in lawsuits, claims, proceedings, investigations, and other legal matters ("Legal Proceedings") that have arisen in the ordinary course of conducting its activities, as a result of catastrophic events or otherwise. At December 31, 2020, TVA had accrued $14 million with respect to Legal Proceedings. No assurance can be given that TVA will not be subject to significant additional claims and liabilities. If actual liabilities significantly exceed the estimates made, TVA's results of operations, liquidity, and financial condition could be materially adversely affected.
For a discussion of certain current material Legal Proceedings, see Note 19 — Contingencies and Legal Proceedings — Legal Proceedings, which discussions are incorporated into this Part I, Item 2, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
At December 31, 2020, TVA had no off-balance sheet arrangements.
Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates
The preparation of financial statements requires TVA to estimate the effects of various matters that are inherently uncertain as of the date of the financial statements. Although the financial statements are prepared in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S., TVA is required to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, the disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities, and the amounts of revenues and expenses reported during the reporting period. Each of these estimates varies in regard to the level of judgment involved and its potential impact on TVA's financial results. Estimates are deemed critical either when a different estimate could have reasonably been used, or where changes in the estimate are reasonably likely to occur from period to period, and such use or change would materially impact TVA's financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows. TVA's critical accounting policies are discussed in Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates and Note 1 — Summary of Significant Accounting Policies of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in the Annual Report.
New Accounting Standards and Interpretations
For a discussion of new accounting standards and interpretations, see Note 2 — Impact of New Accounting Standards and Interpretations, which discussion is incorporated into this Part I, Item 2, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.
Legislative and Regulatory Matters
TVA continues to monitor how regulatory agencies are interpreting and implementing the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which was enacted in July 2010. As a result, TVA has become subject to
recordkeeping, reporting, and reconciliation requirements related to its derivative transactions. In addition, depending on how regulatory agencies interpret and implement the provisions, TVA's hedging costs may increase, and TVA may have to post additional collateral and margin in connection with its derivative transactions.
TVA does not engage, and does not control any entity that is engaged, in any activity listed under Section 13(r) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ("Exchange Act"), which requires certain issuers to disclose certain activities relating to Iran involving the issuer and its affiliates. Based on information supplied by each such person, none of TVA's directors and executive officers are involved in any such activities. While TVA is an agency and instrumentality of the U.S., TVA does not believe its disclosure obligations, if any, under Section 13(r) extend to the activities of any other departments, divisions, or agencies of the U.S.