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14 hours ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 20, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23991 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24884 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23961 and overhead resistance forming above at 24232. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 15th at 24884, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24884 to 23957. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 24884. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 24260 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 23341 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1 day ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 20, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 285k, up 30.2k.
As expected, gold bugs staged a breakout this week but were unable to hang on to it. On Tuesday, gold broke out to a new intraday high of $2,475. The momentum continued Wednesday with another intraday high of $2,488 but only to then reverse lower. By Friday, the metal had given back 0.9 percent for the week to $2,399/ounce.
Prior to the breakout, gold essentially went sideways for three months. On April 12th, it hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. This was eclipsed on May 20th, as the yellow metal ticked $2,454 before once again coming under pressure. All along, bids showed up at $2,300, a breach of which will have shifted momentum to the bears.
Even now, this week’s action probably does not boost bulls’ confidence. A test of the 50-day at $2,369 probably lies ahead; if this is lost, $2,300 is a must-save for the bulls.
Non-commercials have been aggressively accumulating net longs in gold futures, and it does not take long for them to begin unwinding those.
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NYBob
2 days ago
Massive GOLD Revaluation Incoming, 'Sell at Your Own Peril': Andy Schectman - Commodity
Culture - VIDEO
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Obuasi is a gold mining community[3] and town which is the capital of the Obuasi Municipal District in
the Ashanti Region of Ghana.[4] It lies in the southern part of the Obuasi Municipal, 39 miles (63 kilometres)
south-west of Ashanti capital city Kumasi.[4] Obuasi has a population of 175,043 people.[2]
Obuasi mining community has a mixture of the Ashanti people culture and the semi-island exclave Ashantiland.[4]
Obuasi is home to the Obuasi Gold Mine, one of the largest known gold deposits on Earth.[1][4]
The Gold Coast region was named after the large amount of gold mined historically at Obuasi and
the broader Ashanti Region.[4]
Economy
Main article: Economy of Ashanti
Obuasi is known for the Obuasi Gold Mine, one of the largest underground gold mines in the world.
Gold has been mined on the site since at least the seventeenth century.[1]
The Obuasi Gold Mine is now being refurbished after being placed under care and maintenance in 2014.
The mine was anticipated to reach full production in 2022,
with a mine life of more than 20 years.[5][needs update]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obuasi
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$Pelangio Exploration drills 1.8 g/t gold over 13 metres at Manfo, Ghana
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Pelangio Exploration: Multiple Early Stage Gold Exploration Projects in Canada and Ghana
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It’s here, it’s due, it has to happen, and the train is moving.
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DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Gold Faces Bearish Retracement, Testing Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | July 19, 2024
• Gold continues bearish retracement, testing key support at 2,389 with potential further decline to 61.8% retracement at 2,366.
Gold continued its bearish retracement on Friday, falling to a low of 2,394 before finding minor support. It is well on its way to test support around the 50% retracement at 2,389. Notice that the 2,389-price area was where resistance was encountered at a minor swing high in early-June. It also stalled the recent ascent for several days in early-July before gold ran up to a new record high of 2,484 on Monday.
Downward Momentum Accelerates
Given the acceleration in the pullback from the new record high gold may continue to fall and test lower potential support levels if the 50% retracement area doesn’t hold. Lower down is the convergence of several indicators that have converged around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,366.
Both the 20-Day MA (purple) and 50-Day MA (orange) are near the 61.8% retracement zone. Currently, the 20-Day line is marking potential support at 2,374 and the 50-Day line is at 2,358. There is also an internal uptrend line close by that should be watched as well.
New High Breakout Fails to Hold
A pullback following a new record high is not that surprising given that the rally that preceded the breakout began down around 2,294 in late-June. By the time gold broke out to a new record high it was further into the trend and bullish momentum could not be sustained. Now that the upside follow through has ended downward pressure in the price of gold has increased. The reversal from this week’s high sets up a bearish weekly candlestick pattern.
Weekly Bearish Shooting Star on Deck
On the weekly chart gold is about to end with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. It shows buyers in charge earlier in the week but by the end of the week, sellers were in charge. In other words, a failed breakout occurred, and sentiment has turned short-term bearish. Therefore, it may not be resolved quickly, and gold may need some time before it is ready to attempt a new record high again.
A decline below this week’s low of 2,394 will trigger a weekly bearish reversal. This is another reason why the lower price zone target is at greater risk of being reached. Nonetheless, the two prior corrections on a weekly basis lasted either two or three weeks.
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DiscoverGold
3 days ago
Gold Plunges in The Early Hours of Friday
By: Christopher Lewis | July 19, 2024
• The gold market plunged in the early hours of Friday, as the market participants seemingly jumped back into the US dollar. The $2400 level now becomes very important in the short-term, and it will be worth paying attention to.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market plunged quite drastically during the early hours on Friday, as it looks like we are hell bent on racing towards the $2,400 level. I find this interesting because I think that could be a good entry point. We’ll have to wait and see. What I want to see is the market test that area and then bounce and hold it. If it does, it makes a lot of sense. That was an area that was previously resistant to prices. The 50-day EMA is closer to the $2,350 level, but it is rising at a pretty sharp angle.
So, it does suggest that perhaps the market is going to continue to see value hunters. A lot of this will come down to the US dollar and what it’s doing, and it’s probably worth noting that the US dollar is strengthening, so that is causing a little bit of trouble for gold. Nonetheless, this is a market that has plenty of things going for it, not to mention geopolitical issues. And of course, central banks around the world are buyers of gold as well.
Interest rate cuts should help gold, at least in theory, so we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. But I think any bounce at this point in time probably sends the market straight back up. So, I believe that the Friday candlestick is going to be very crucial in determining whether we buy it here or if we maybe let it come back into the previous consolidation before buying it.
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DiscoverGold
3 days ago
Gold Falls Further After Reaching New Record High
By: Bruce Powers | July 18, 2024
• After hitting a record high of $2,484, gold pulls back, heading towards test of key support levels before launching towards near-term upside target of $2,495.
Gold is attempting to retrace part of its recent advance following a new record high of 2,484 reached yesterday. Today, gold has pulled back further, dropping below Wednesday’s low of 2,451 to reach a low of 2,440 for the day. Also, today’s low is below the prior record high of 2,450. However, trading continues near the lows of the day and a new daily low could be reached by today’s close.
Initial Potential Support Levels
There are several initial price levels to watch for possible support to show up. The first is at the April 12 swing high of 2,431. A little lower is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,411, followed by the 50% retracement at 2,389. Somewhat more weight is given to the 2,389-price level as it is also a match with a prior interim swing high from June 7. A pullback to test that price zone as support may provide a nice setup for a bullish continuation. It is above both the 20- and 50-Day MAs, at 2,370 and 2,357, respectively. Also, it is above all the trendlines.
A Long-Term Target Reached at 2,480
This week’s new record high of 2,484 completed a key long-term target for gold from a large rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. The AB leg of the pattern began at the swing low of 1,160 in August 2018. It led to a rally into the August 2020 swing high of 2,013. A similar advance in price began from the September 2022 swing low of 1,615 and ended this week.
Once there is symmetry in price, a potential pivot level has been identified. It looks like that was the case here given the bearish reaction following Wednesday’s high of 2,484. Nonetheless, following the completion of a bearish retracement, gold is anticipated to continue to trend higher towards upside targets.
Recent Bearish Retracement Points to 2,495 Target
There is Fibonacci confluence area with several price levels identified around 2,487. A little further up from there is a relatively near-term target at 2,495. That price level will complete a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline that began from the May 20 peak. A greater than 100% or 127.2% retracement completes at the 2,495-price level.
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DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Gold Reaches New High at 2,484, Faces Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | July 17, 2024
• After hitting a record 2,484, gold faces resistance with a potential bearish pattern, yet retains bullish outlook above key support levels.
Gold continued to advance to a new trend high of 2,484 on Wednesday before encountering resistance. Sellers took back control from that high and have set gold up with a potential bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Underlying strength remains however, as Wednesday is on track to complete a narrow range day near the highs of Tuesday’s new record high wide range breakout day. Strength indicated by the breakout was confirmed by Tuesday’s close above the previous record high of 2,450.
High Completes ABCD Pattern Begun in 2018
There are a couple things to notice about today’s new record high. First, a target zone was hit on today’s advance at 2,480. That is a long-term target from a large ascending ABCD pattern that began from the August 2018 swing low. It began the AB leg of the advance. The second leg up, the CD portion, began from the September 2022 swing low. A potential pivot price is indicated once the price change in the second leg up matches the first. That is what is being seen so far.
It is confirmed by a short-term trendline connecting swing highs beginning with April 12. The high today was essentially a match with potential resistance indicated by the line. The ABCD pattern target is an initial target from the pattern. As gold continues to rise, extended targets will play a role. A 127.2% extended target for the ABCD is at 2,715.
Lower Support Starts with 2,411
If the bearish retracement from Wednesday’s high continues, it is triggered on a decline below today’s low of 2,451. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement completes at 2,411, while this week’s low is at 2,401. Either marks an area of potential interest from buyers. Nevertheless, the 50% retracement level of 2,389 is confirmed by a prior interim swing high from early-June.
The 50-Day MA is a key trend support zone for gold. It is at 2,366 currently. Therefore, the bullish outlook is retained in gold if it stays above the 50-Day MA. Notice that recently the purple 20-Day MA crossed above the 50-Day line, proving another sign of strength for the precious metal.
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DiscoverGold
5 days ago
Gold Hits New Record High Amid Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | July 16, 2024
• Following a bullish crossover, gold hit a new record high of 2,467, with higher targets now in focus.
Gold breaks out to a new record high following a bullish crossover of the 20-Day MA above the 50-Day MA yesterday. The previous record high was 2,450, which was reached on May 20. Today, Tuesday, gold has reached a new record high of 2,467, at the time of this writing, and it continues to trade near the highs of the day.
New Record High of 2,467
An initial new high target for gold at 2,462 was already exceeded today, putting higher targets in scope. That pivot was a 161.8% extended retracement of the decline that begun from the August 2011 swing high. It still may act as an area of resistance as the high today is not much beyond the 2,462-price level. Watch to see where today’s close completes. Above 2,462 is more likely to lead quickly to an advance to higher price targets, rather than a daily close below that price level.
Higher Targets Start with 2,480
There are several higher targets shown on the chart from around 2,480 to 2,494. The lower price level for the range is a long-term target for a large rising ABCD pattern. It began from the July 2018 swing low of 1,160. An AB leg for the pattern ended at 2,031 in August 2020, while the beginning of the CD leg was at 1,615 in September 2022.
At the top of the price range is 2,494. That price level completes a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline from the 2,450-trend high. There are two other price levels within the identified price range as well, giving further credence to the price range. Arguably, since the 127.2% target is based on a near-term pattern, it has a good chance of being reached within the current expansion.
Monthly Bullish Signal Supports Higher Prices
Higher prices are supported by recent price action. A monthly bull signal in gold was triggered earlier this month on a rise above June’s high of 2,388. Given that July is halfway complete, gold has a chance to end the month strong, in the upper third of the month’s price range. Also, a weekly bullish continuation signal triggered this week and gold is on track to end the week strong, in the upper third of the week’s trading range. If it does so, it has a good chance of seeing strong upward momentum heading into next week.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Continues to Look Very Strong
By: Christopher Lewis | July 16, 2024
• Gold markets continue to look very strong as we are testing a major recent high. Ultimately, we are on the precipice of breaking out one way or the other, either through the mass of bullish pressure, or another pullback that eventually gets bought back into.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has really taken off again in the early hours on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of upward momentum with the possibility of breaking above the $2,450 level. If we can break above that level, then it will be a continuation of the overall bullish pressure that we have seen for some time. And I do think it’s probably only a matter of time before that happens. The question, of course, is whether or not we get a short term pullback. In the meantime, we did get that pullback somewhat on Monday.
So maybe Tuesday is just a continuation and eventual breakout. Clearly, we are in a major uptrend and at the very top of the consolidation area that’s been going on since roughly the beginning of April. There are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that could continue to push gold higher. And then of course, there are ideas that the central banks, even the Federal Reserve might be out there looking to cut rates at the end of the year.
So, if that’s going to be the case, that could also help. the gold market going forward. After all, this is a market that is highly interest rate sensitive. So that obviously is a major factor. Pullbacks at this point in time should the plenty of support right around the $2,400 level based on psychological support as it was psychological resistance. And, of course, there are probably quite a few options barriers. Either way, I think that we are either going to break out or we are going to remain a buy on the debt market.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Is Ready To Test New Highs
By: Vladimir Zernov | July 15, 2024
Key Points:
• China's central bank did not buy gold in June.
• Physically-backed gold ETFs enjoyed inflows for the second month in a row in June.
• Central banks believe that gold's share in reserves would grow in the next five years.
Gold has recently managed to settle above the $2400 level and is moving towards the $2450 level. Interestingly, the usual suspect – China’s central bank – did not buy gold for the second month in a row. At the end of June, China held 72.8 million ounces of gold.
While the country’s central bank was waiting for a pullback, other investors have used the opportunity to buy gold at lower prices, pushing gold back above the $2400 level.
World Gold Council data shows that physically-backed gold ETFs enjoyed monthly inflows of $1.4 billion in June. Year-to-date, such ETFs lost $6.7 billion as investors were moving money out of gold ETFs at the start of the year.
Data shows that speculative investors have started to buy gold ETFs at a time when the more conservative China’s central bank stopped its purchases due to high prices.
At this point, the key question is whether China’s central bank will start buying again in the upcoming months. The central bank missed the opportunity to purchase gold near the $2300 level, so it may be forced to buy more gold at higher prices in order to diversify its reserves amid rising tensions in U.S. – China relations.
A recent central bank survey published by World Gold Council shows that the percentage of central banks that believe that dollar’s share of total reserves would be ‘significantly lower’ five years from now has increased from 5% in 2023 to 13% in 2024.
As many as 66% of respondents believe that the share of gold in total reserves would be ‘moderately higher’ five years from now.
Most likely, speculative investors would like to benefit from this long-term trend, so inflows into gold ETFs would continue to grow. Meanwhile, the upcoming beginning of the Fed rate cut cycle should provide additional support to gold markets and push gold above the $2500 level.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Continues to Show Strength
By: Christopher Lewis | July 15, 2024
• The gold market has shown itself to be strong again in the early hours of Monday, as traders continue to think about the geopolitical issues, and of course the idea that central banks are starting to cut rates.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, but it does look like the $2,400 level is going to continue to offer a bit of psychological support, if nothing else. You can see that we initially pulled back a bit, only to turn around and show signs of life. The $2,450 level above is more likely than not going to be a little bit of a short term resistance barrier. And of course, people will be paying close attention to it. If we can break above that level, then it’s likely that we will get to the $2,500 level.
Any move below 2400 would probably just be more of the same. It would be an indictment on the attempted breakout, and it would suggest that we are just simply going to head right back into the previous consolidation. This is a real possibility, but we’ll have to see how that plays out. For me, the $2,300 region is a major support level that we will have to pay close attention to what’s going on when we get down to that area on any selloff.
That being said, it certainly looks like we have a lot of resiliency here. And I do think that this is a market that suggests that it’s probably only a matter of time before we do breakout, to the upside. If we get falling rates, that will help gold. But we also have geopolitical tensions, which most certainly helps gold. And then of course, we just have the overall trend that’s been bullish for several months now.
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1 week ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 13, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24207 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24304 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 24015.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 24304, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24304 to 23560. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 8th reaching 24304 has exceeded the previous high of 23826 made back during the week of June 17th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 13, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 254.8k, up 13.2k.
Gold is itching to break out. This week, it rose one percent to $2,421/ounce.
The metal has essentially gone sideways the past three months. On April 12th, gold hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. On May 20th, a new high was created as the yellow metal ticked $2,454. All along, bids showed up at $2,300.
Amidst this, non-commercials are the most net long gold futures since March 2022.
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1 week ago
Gold Bullish Momentum Retained
By: Bruce Powers | July 12, 2024
• Gold forms a bullish doji hammer inside day, signaling potential breakout above 2,425 with higher targets at 2,462 and 2,480.
Gold is on track to complete bullish doji hammer inside day today with a high of 2,418 at the time of this writing. Trading continues near the highs of the day heading towards Friday’s close. Today’s price action is constructive for the advance as it follows a strong candle yesterday with a close near the high of the day. The 20-Day MA is about to confirm strength as it has converged with the 50-Day MA and is about to cross above it. In addition, both moving averages have converged with a trendline, and they are about to cross above it. Each would provide an additional sign of improving demand.
Potential for Bull Breakout of Inside Day
The inside day sets up a potential upside breakout on a rally above today’s high. Thursday’s high was around 2,425 and will be the next key level as a breakout above it triggers a continuation of the rising trend. The hammer characteristics of the inside day show continued bullish demand. Moreover, today’s price action is largely in the upper half of yesterday’s trading range. That shows strength relative to Thursday’s price range. In addition, Thursday’s closing price of 2,415 is the third highest daily close for gold on record, another sign of strength.
Above 2,425 Signals Trend Continuation
A sustained breakout above this week’s high of 2,425 triggers a continuation of the bull trend. Gold must then rise above the 2,431-swing high from April 12. It then heads towards the record high of 2,450. Given the variety of bullish indications lately, it has a good chance of breaking above 2,431.
Eventual New High Targets of 2,462 and 2,480
The initial two new high price targets are at 2,462 and 2,480. A long-term extended 161.8% retracement target from the decline off the August 2011 high identifies the first price level. That price level is followed by the completion of a long-term rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. Those price levels are followed by a Fibonacci confluence zone around 2,489. That is where two or more Fibonacci levels congregate.
Regardless of the above bullish scenario, sometimes markets don’t make it so easy. If that happens with gold, we may see resistance leading to a retracement prior to a breakout to new record highs. Just an alternative scenario to be aware of in case it occurs.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Citi Predicts $3,000 Gold by 2025
By: Karl Montevirgen | July 12, 2024
• What the Fed does in the coming months could dramatically affect the direction of gold prices
• While seasonality suggests a shift from slump to strong performance for gold, it will likely coincide with the Fed's rate decisions in the coming months
• Goldman Sachs projects gold to hit $2,700 by the end of 2024; Citi projects $3,000 by 2025
Will Fed Chief Jay Powell rouse King Midas from his summer slumber? Gold investors are eager to have that question answered. The Fed's response will determine whether investors press pause or pull the trigger.
Thursday's CPI data seemed favorable enough. Consumer prices are easing, raising Wall Street's hopes for a Fed rate cut. Friday's PPI report, however, came out higher than expected. With inflation easing on the consumer end but rising stubbornly on the manufacturing end, how will the Fed respond in the coming months?
Central Banks Can Push Gold to Upwards of $3,000 by 2025
Gold price targets have been everywhere, largely depending on FOMC projections. But Citi's latest prediction is bold and bright for gold bulls. They see central bank gold demand driving prices to $3,000 by 2025, while Goldman Sachs revised its target for 2024 upward to $2,700.
The rationale? Analysts think central banks will snap up 1,100 tons of gold in 2024, with a bullish scenario hitting 1,250 tons. This demand has been steady at 28–30% of gold mine production since 2022, potentially climbing to 35% due to trade wars and worries about U.S. fiscal policies.
Gold: A 20-Year Lookback
Let's step back and take a wide-angle view ($GOLD monthly chart) of gold's position relative to its 20-year history.
CHART 1. 20-YEAR MONTHLY CHART OF GOLD. This chart might answer the raging debate about whether gold is a good investment. What do you think?
Gold see-sawed in a trading range from 2013 to 2019. After a breakout, it hit an all-time high and then saw three more years of wide sideways movement before 2024. In May, gold hit its highest price ever: $2,450.05 an ounce.mThe long-term trend? Net bullish. It's a reality check when you see that gold's price rise mirrors the drop in your money's purchasing power.
Momentum-wise, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tells you that buying pressure is on an upswing which, in the past, coincided with every major rally. The big question now: will this anticipated rally keep going?
$GOLD vs GLD — Big Players vs. the Retail Crowd
For retail investors, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the proxy for gold futures. Looking at StockCharts' correlation indicator, gold futures ($GOLD) and GLD are both moving in lockstep based on their 0.98 to 1.0 (meaning 98% to 100%) correlation, as you can see below:
CHART 2. CORRELATION BETWEEN GOLD FUTURES AND SPDR GOLD SHARES ETF. Note that the ETF is also gold-backed, making it a strong proxy for the metal itself.
But when you look at the buying and selling pressure as represented by the CMF, you get a different picture.
CHART 3. CHART OF GOLD FUTURES AND GLD WITH DIFFERING CMF READINGS. While gold futures show steady buying pressure, the ETF has shown outflows.
While gold futures and bullion are the domain of Institutional investors and commercial consumers (think manufacturers, hedgers, etc.), the retail crowd trades GLD. Are the pros gearing up for a move that retail investors might miss?
Add the Following Two Charts to Your StockCharts ChartLists
The $GOLD chart shows how gold futures prices stack up against the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD). The ETF is meant to track the futures, but look closely. If the thesis holds, you might be able to spot the difference between institutional vs. retail buying or selling—potentially signaling a market opportunity.
GLD's Daily Price Action
GLD gives a mixed picture.
CHART 4. DAILY CHART OF GLD. Bullish and bearish indications, but with clear support levels.
The CMF and the Ichimoku Cloud are both leaning bearish. The CMF shows dwindling momentum (dipping below the zero line) while GLD seemingly struggles to take out its record high of $225.66. The cloud turned red, giving the impression that once support is broken, it could transform into a thickening resistance range.
On the bullish side, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) shows both signal line and centerline crossovers, indicating a potential bullish scenario. Plus, the uptrend in both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (SMAs) are intact and steadily rising. Both can provide support.
However, GLD could continue to drift downward, breaking below the 100-day SMA and the bottom cloud level—which it can do, given that gold tends to perform poorly in the summer months. If that happens, where else can you find strategic buying points (assuming that gold will rise to higher levels toward the end of the year)?
Plotting Fibonacci Retracement levels tells you that 38.2% ($209.60), and the range between 50% ($204.70) and 61.8% (199.75) might serve as strategic buy zones for accumulating GLD shares. After all, the context we're facing is a dreadful seasonal slump in August and September and a sharp rebound in the last quarter of the year, as StockCharts' five-year seasonality chart below illustrates.
CHART 5. FIVE-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Why five years? Because the monetary and geopolitical scenario (e.g., inflation and global de-dollarization) of recent years changes the context of the dollar and gold.
But the real game-changer? The Fed's upcoming decisions on interest rates. That's the trigger you should be watching closely.
Closing Bell
Gold's prospects are a mixed bag of bullish and bearish signals, heavily influenced by the Fed's next moves on interest rates. While institutional players and central banks appear to be buying, retail investors are probably missing some cues. Seasonality-wise, gold's in a summer slump. However, things can change as early as the end of July, when the FOMC meets to deliver its rate decision. If not, things could also change very rapidly in the coming months. Plus, gold tends to perform well in the last quarter of the year.
Keep an eye on the strategic buy zones highlighted above. And remember: the real game-changer lies in the Fed's upcoming decisions.
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1 week ago
HSBC's new gold prices forecast calls for a 12% drop in 2025
By: Investing.com | July 12, 2024
NEW YORK(July 12) Gold prices surged to a record high in mid-May, driven by robust safe haven and hedge fund purchases.
This rally has been prompted by expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as well as increasing economic uncertainty. Furthermore, rising fiscal deficits have spurred significant gold purchases, predominantly in the over-the-counter (OTC) market.
The jump to record highs came despite positive real rates, HSBC's precious metals analysts said.
"Gold is historically sensitiv
Looking further ahead, HSBC’s long-term forecast for the bullion now sits at $2,000/oz, up from the previous $1,700/oz.
In terms of year-end gold price projections, the bank said its 2024 and 2025 forecasts are $2,210/oz and $2,075/oz, respectively.
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e to real rates, and while there has been a notable disconnect in this relationship, we expect real rates to weigh on gold towards the end of 2024 and 2025,” they wrote.
Although exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to liquidate, strong purchases in the OTC market and by real money investors have counterbalanced this trend. Net long positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remain high, but analysts suggest they may not increase significantly from current levels.
"Market sentiment is clearly bullish, and while the near-term upward trajectory shows no signs of slacking, we think prices are progressively overstretched," they noted.
Within this, HSBC has raised its average price forecasts for gold due to near-term strength, however, the bank expects a potential decline in prices by Q4 this year or into 2025.
Specifically, analysts have lifted its average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,160/oz to $2,305/oz. Yet, their 2025 estimates are now lowered from $2,105/oz to $1,980/oz, implying a 12% drop from current levels.
Analysts expect gold prices to rebound in 2026, raising their average price projection for that year from $1,880/oz to $2,025/oz.
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1 week ago
Gold Rally Eyes Record High After Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 11, 2024
• Gold surged to 2,425 today, maintaining bullish momentum. A strong close could push prices towards the 2,450-record high, with the next potential resistance at 2,431.
Gold rallied today and triggered an extension of the rising trend to reach a high of 2,425. Momentum has since died down intraday, but buyers remain in control with trading continuing near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. The rally completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,415. Although there are signs of resistance around the 79.6% level the pullback has been mild so far.
If gold can close strong today, in the upper quarter of the day’s trading range, it has a chance to continue to rally into the end of this week. Also, watch the relative closing price. There has been only one day that gold closed above today’s high and that was on May 20, the day gold hit its current record high of 2,450. A strong close today sets the stage for gold to recapture the record high and keep rising.
Strong Upward Momentum May Challenge Record High
The next higher potential resistance area is around the April 12 swing high at 2,431. There is also an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level at the same price level adding to its potential short-term significance. Since the bull breakout last week gold has maintained strength above prior resistance areas defined by the downtrend line, top trend channel line and the 50-Day MA (orange).
Today’s rally further confirms improving demand in the precious metal. The question is, can upward momentum be sustained enough to take gold above the 2,450-record high or will it first encounter resistance that leads to a retracement or consolidation phase first.
20-Day MA Bull Crossover in Process
Further confirming strength of the uptrend will be the 20-Day MA (purple). It is more sensitive to changes in price since it uses a shorter period to calculate, and it is about to cross back above the 50-Day line since being below it from June 17. This will be another piece of evidence indicating that strength in demand is improving. Moreover, the 20-Day and 50-Day lines have come together more recently as gold consolidated and volatility died now. Now that a bullish breakout is in play the bull trend should be ready to reassert itself. This will increase the distance between the two moving averages as momentum improves and the uptrend extends.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Find Buyers After CPI
By: Christopher Lewis | July 11, 2024
• The Consumer Price Index came out weaker than anticipated on Thursday, as traders continue to see a lot of questions asked about the Federal Reserve, and what they will be doing in the future. This is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy overall.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market went straight up in the air after the consumer price index numbers in the United States came out weaker than anticipated, but in doing so, it does suggest that we are going to continue to be very noisy but continue to focus on the idea of whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut rates. If, in fact, they will, then that should help gold over the longer term.
On the other hand, if they remain tight, then it’s possible that the Federal Reserve will squash gold. I think at this point in time, though, the market has already made up its mind, and it’s probably only a matter of time before we truly see gold take off to the upside. Clearly, we have a lot of momentum, and the $2,300 level underneath has been like a brick wall.
It’s probably worth noting that the $2,400 level has been very difficult to overcome as well. So with all of that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where traders continue to press the resistance above, and I think short term pullbacks will end up being buying opportunities given enough time. Ultimately, this is a market that not only breaks higher, but I think eventually breaks above the $2,450 level to go looking to the $2,500 level. But we don’t necessarily know that it’s going to happen right now. With this, I remain bullish, but I’m looking for short term pullbacks to get involved.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Consolidates, Poised for Potential Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 10, 2024
• Gold’s consolidation above the 50-Day MA indicates bullish sentiment, with key pivots and long-term targets suggesting potential for further gains.
Gold continued to consolidate on Wednesday with a minor sign of strength as it rose above Tuesday’s high of 2,371. Nevertheless, it remains within a relatively tight trading range between resistance of 2,393 and support around 2,349. Until there is a decisive move outside of that range, trading will remain choppy.
Bullish sentiment remains dominant however as the consolidation pattern is developing above the 50-Day MA and other lines that recently had been areas of resistance. This reflects the improving underlying strength in demand for gold.
May End with an Inside Weed
Since the Wednesday trading session is almost over, it looks like gold could finish this week with an inside week. If so, it would set up a potential bullish breakout of an inside week for next week. Of course, volatility following the release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) tomorrow could trigger a breakout of the current price range. If bullish signs continue thereafter then gold has a chance to keep rising. Although there hasn’t yet been bullish follow through, last week gold closed at 2,393,
above the interim daily swing high of 2,388. That showed strength that is waiting for further confirmation.
Last Week’s High of 2,393 is Key Pivot
Last week’s high of 2,393 presents the next key pivot as a rally above there puts gold on track to challenge May 20 record high of 2,450. The steadier the climb towards that high the better the chance that it can continue to rise on improving momentum. An extended retracement of the August 2011 decline presents the first long-term Fibonacci target at 2,462. It is followed by another long-term target at 2,480.
That is the completion of a measured move or rising ABCD pattern that begins from the August 2018 swing low of 1,160. The subsequent advance from the September 2022 swing low matches the first upswing from the 2018 low at 2,480. Long-term targets deserve to be watched to see how price behaves around the levels. They present points of decision where resistance may be seen, or a breakout could occur from the potential resistance area.
Second Breakout of Monthly on Deck
Gold should see an upsurge in momentum upon a rise above last week’s high as it will trigger the second breakout above a monthly high as well. June’s high of 2,388 was exceeded earlier and a second breakout may have clearer success.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Consolidates on 50-Day MA Support, Eyes New Highs
By: Bruce Powers | July 9, 2024
• Gold consolidates on 50-Day MA support, setting the stage for a potential breakout towards new highs, maintaining a bullish outlook despite recent sideways movement.
Gold is now in its third day of sideways consolidation sitting on support from the 50-Day MA at 2,342. Price support of the range is at today’s low of 2,349. It remains in a constructive position following a bullish breakout from a descending channel last week. Further, a breakout of the 20-Day MA, 50-Day MA, and another trendline also triggered last week. Price action since the breakout has been testing previous resistance as support, which is typically seen in the progression of an uptrend.
50-Day MA, Key Trend Support
The 50-Day line is a good nearby benchmark to use for signs of strength or weakness. Notice that it has recently converged (close) with the top channel trendline so that they each mark a similar price support zone. Next, the bulls will be watching for an acceleration to the upside away from the 50-Day line. That may set the stage for a challenge to the recent record highs seen in gold.
Last Week Closed Strong
A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was already completed last week at 2,388. A decisive advance above last week’s high will trigger a bullish continuation of the trend short-term uptrend, which is contained within a larger rising price structure. Last week a weekly bullish reversal triggered, and gold confirmed strength from the breakout with a weekly close at a seven-week high. Further, the week ended strong, with gold closing near the highs for the week.
This week we might see gold continue to consolidate and stay within the confines of last week’s price range (2,318 to 2,393), and end with an inside week. Such price action would retain the bullish outlook for gold and set the stage for renewed enthusiasm from buyers as they seek to see gold rise to new record highs. Following an upside breakout above 2,393 gold would next be heading up towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,415. Next up would come a challenge to the record high of 2,450 that was reached in May.
Monthly Bull Breakout Set to Run
It is also significant to note that last month’s high was 2,388 and it marked resistance for the month of June. June ended with an inside month doji pattern. An attempt at a monthly upside breakout triggered last week during the advance as the high was 2,393. Once that high was hit resistance was seen as sellers took over.
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2 weeks ago
China’s Golden Pause. Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | July 8, 2024
Precious metals or giving up some of their fantastic gains from last week partly because China decided to pause its spine for the central banks for the second month in a row. Traders remember all too well about the over $100.00 an ounce drop the gold saw after China pause its purchases last month. Now there are
concerns are that somehow China is going to remain out of the market for many months to come.
Yet signs that the dollar is topping after last week’s less than spectacular jobs report and the fact that some of the recent job creation is smoke and mirrors.
Fox Business reported that while the June jobs report revealed higher than expected job growth, with 206,000 new jobs created. A third of those jobs were in the government sector.
Government employment rose by 70,000, which is far higher than the average of 49,000 over the last year. Government employment was boosted by local government, excluding education and state government. The healthcare sector added 49,000 positions, lifted by increased hiring in ambulatory healthcare services and at hospitals. Construction payrolls increased by 27,000 jobs. But the retail sector shed jobs, as did manufacturing.
Professional and business services employment declined by 17,000 jobs, with temporary help jobs dropping by about 49,000. That likely portends slower payroll gains ahead.
Economists say the economy needs to create at least 150,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, accounting for the recent surge in immigration. In a good sign for the Federal Reserve and its battle against inflation, unemployment increased from 4% to 4.1%, and wage growth slowed to a rate not seen since 2021.
This data should create a very friendly environment for precious metals going forward that is one of the reasons why the correction after the China news isn’t nearly as big. Perhaps a good time to start looking at putting on bullish strategies for both silver and gold.
Copper is on verge of a major breakout effort after its recent massive correction. Copper hit a three-week high.
Strength in Indian’s economy and the expectation that China will stimulate their economy should keep the copper market on solid ground. On Friday we hit key resistance and if we can break above that area, we should be able to move sharply higher be on guard for a bit of a correction but look to buy the break.
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2 weeks ago
India’s central bank boosts gold reserves by the most in 2 years after moving 100 tons from the UK to domestic vaults
By: Bloomberg | July 8, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- India’s central bank probably increased its gold reserves by the most in almost two years last month, according to a World Gold Council analyst.
The Reserve Bank of India added more than nine tons in June, based on calculations using weekly data from the bank, Krishan Gopaul said in a post on social medial platform X. That’s the most since July 2022, and means India’s reserves have expanded by 37 tons this year to 841 tons, he said.
Central bank buying has been a key driver of bullion’s rally this year that sent prices to a record in May. The size of purchases has been a big focus and question mark for the market, as they can be delayed or not reported fully.
A large number of central banks still planned to buy gold in the coming year, spurred by heightened geopolitical and financial risks that make owning the metal more attractive, according to a recent survey by the WGC. About 20 planned to raise their holdings, according to the survey, which didn’t disclose which nations expect to buy.
India has been a major buyer of gold in recent years, alongside countries such as China and Turkey.
The Reserve Bank of India also moved 100 tons of its gold from the UK back to its domestic vaults, the Times of India reported in May.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Gives Thanks as the Economy Tanks
By: Mark Mead Baillie | July 7, 2024
Through recent missives we’ve been near-term negative on Gold, indeed looking for a move down to test the 2247-2171 structural support zone. Such read remains in concert with price’s weekly MACD (moving average convergence divergence) still adversely positioned.
But gritty Gold refuses to fold, price settling yesterday (Friday) at 2400, all told! And when the yellow metal trumps that which is technical, we’re reminded that Gold’s ultimate value is fundamental, that it “sees” what is about to economically unfold! Thus a Federal Reserve rate cut to behold? Or does the Fed not (yet) “see” the economy getting rolled?
In other words: will the Fed be behind the descending curve as ’tis usually? FedSpeak of late, whilst not necessarily hawkish, has been nonetheless cautious toward an otherwise imminent rate cut come the Open Market Committee’s Statement on 31 July. And if previously you’ve therein read this phrase once, you’ve read it a bazillion times: “…the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks…”
Well folks, with respect to Gold’s reality being fundamental, here as a heads-up to the not-ahead Fed is the incoming data, its evolving outlook, and hence a bleak balance of risks via the Economic Barometer. And as you long-time readers know, the Baro is borne of some 50 incoming metrics per month across 26 years as a tried-and-true leading indicator, at which (‘twould so seem) the FedFolks don’t look. But as we herein mused a week ago: come 25 July, might the first read of Q2 annualized Gross Domestic Product actually be negative? Cue Murray Head’s ballad from back in ’75 ““Say It Ain’t So, Joe” ” and have your own look:
‘Course when rates plop, Gold oft gets a pop. Moreover, a bevy of Gold positives are coming to the fore. However, first let’s update the stance of Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, wherein we see a second week of parabolic Short trend now complete. But as was the case with the prior two red-dotted Short trends, shall this one also be “short-lived”? Either way — as has now been the case for some 13 weeks — price basically is ebbing and flowing ’round our year’s forecast high of 2375:
True, we just mentioned there are Gold positives for “The Now”, inclusive of the opening Gold Scoreboard’s currency debasement valuation already up at 3712 (i.e. 55% higher than the present price of 2400). Here are a few more immediate Gold positives upon which to chew:
• Monetarily: inflation “magically” vanished in May; ’tis over, and thus the Fed ought cut; Gold Positive;
• Fundamentally: the StateSide economy is tanking; ’tis sick and thus the Fed must cut; again, Gold Positive;
• Globally: U.S. Vice-President Kamala Devi Harris likely assumes the role of President between now and 20 January (regardless of her party’s nominee and ensuing election), thus becoming Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces at a time when global hotspots are ever so fragile and expanding; be that President perfectly capable or otherwise unproven, the world will become more nervous; clearly Gold Positive.
• Technically: despite the fresh weekly Gold parabolic Short stance and still-negative MACD, just yesterday came confirmation of the following Gold Positive:
If you follow the website’s analytics, the above graphic is updated daily on both the Gold and Market Values pages. And the rule of thumb is: when price breaks above its smooth valuation line, still higher price levels (by rule rather than exception) are to be expected. Yet, within the context of proper cash management, we obviously now have conflicting signals. But at the end of the day — regardless what technicals shout — ’tis by fundamentals Gold will out. No, we shan’t now disregard a test of the oft-of-late mentioned 2247-2171 structural support zone; however should a new All-Time High instead be nigh in concert with the next weekly parabolic flip to Long, then ““I Want to Take You Higher” ”shall be Gold’s song –[Sly and the Family Stone, ’69]
Next we go to Gold’s two-panel display of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. The last two daily bars are sufficiently upside robust such that upon the baby blue dots of trend consistency crossing above the 0% axis, their foundational 21-day slope shall have rotated from negative to positive. And in the Profile we’ve labeled those prices of notable volume-trading support:
Similar is Sister Silver’s drill. Her “Baby Blues” (below left) are well in sync with those for Gold. And her Profile (below right) shows a myriad of supports. As noted early in the graphic for Gold’s Weekly Bars, the Gold/Silver ratio is now 76.1x versus 79.4x a week ago, indicative of Silver garnering interest as she remains exceedingly cheap vis-à-vis Gold, (the average century-to-date ratio being 63.3x). Indeed whilst Gold today at 2400 is just -2.2% below its All-Time High (2454), Sister Silver now at 31.53 is -36.7% below her All-Time High (49.82). So do not forget her:
In closing for this week, guess what commences on Monday?
“Q2 Earnings Season, mmb.“
Exactly right, Squire. And surely you duly noted in the aforeshown Economic Barometer the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is an essentially valueless 43.5x. Who owns the S&P 500 at such an historically extreme level? Look again at the Econ Baro: to bring the P/E in line with any measure of past P/E means, do we really expect bottom lines to have doubled in Q2? Of course not! And yet, the S&P 500 — void of supportive earnings and comparatively little yield (1.316%) — continues to set record highs, reaching on Friday up to 5570.
‘Course the last thing the Fed wants to see (beyond the demise of the Almighty Dollar, which is the Fed’s mandate to maintain in equilibrium) is the inevitable crash of the Great American Savings Account (aka “The Stock Market”). But you S&P futures traders with long memories (and you know who you are out there) may recall from the “Conspiratorial Truth Dept.” the sole reason which keeps the market from crashing: the Fed (so it used to be said) has a trading account on the futures floor:
“Dat’s right, you keep hittin’ dem offers dere, Jay baby!”
But can the Fed then print its way out of a margin call when it all goes wrong? Folks: you can ultimately crash and burn along with the rest in this Investing Age of Stoopid … or instead give thanks for Gold!
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2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 6, 2024
The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high by 0.97%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 20 days. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.81% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 24262, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 23560 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.
Our Stochastics are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23737.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 4.222%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold’s Doldrums Strength
By: Adam Hamilton | July 5, 2024
Gold has shown impressive strength weathering 2024’s summer doldrums. Now through the worst of its weakest seasonals of the year, gold didn’t suffer any prolonged selling. That was despite entering June very overbought, really boosting odds for a sizable selloff. And gold’s usual core constituencies weren’t buying, so unusual significant demand came from elsewhere. This is very bullish for gold’s autumn rally.
Gold’s setup entering this year’s summer doldrums was mixed. On the bearish side, gold had just shot dramatically higher to extremely-overbought levels. From mid-February to mid-May, gold blasted 21.8% higher in just 3.2 months! The stunning 21 new nominal record highs achieved in that span really stoked greedy sentiment. Gold soared so far so fast it stretched as high as 18.8% above its 200dma in mid-April!
That was deep into extremely-overbought territory, which starts at 15% over. Gold hadn’t rallied to such risky levels technically since August 2020 fully 3.7 years earlier! And that extreme was followed by a serious near-bear 18.5% correction over the next 7.0 months. Entering June 2024, gold remained really overbought at 12.2% above its 200dma. So a bigger selloff was fully justified to rebalance technicals and sentiment.
Yet gold’s fundamental outlook was bullish, as I explained in my essay a month ago on 2024’s summer-doldrums setup. I concluded then, “After being extremely overbought in recent months, gold sure could use a healthy pullback to rebalance sentiment. But we might not get one this year, gold also has good odds of surging further.” The reason was the unusual drivers that had just fueled gold’s remarkable breakout.
So I continued then, “Chinese investors and central banks have seized gold’s reins, usurping gold-futures speculators and American stock investors in recent months. The former group may very well continue buying and chasing gold’s strong upside momentum, while the latter group might start returning.” While those gold-futures specs and American investors remain missing in action, someone has been buying.
This chart is updated from that latest gold-summer-doldrums essay. It individually indexes all modern gold-bull years’ summers, setting May’s final close to 100. That renders them in perfectly-comparable percentage terms despite very-different gold levels. Then all 20 of these summer gold performances are averaged together in the red line, distilling out summer seasonals. 2024’s action is superimposed in dark blue.
Again technically gold had every right to sell off considerably last month, to work off recent months’ extreme overboughtness and serious greed. Yet instead gold largely drifted sideways on balance, only suffering a single serious down day. This resilient summer action is an impressive show of strength in gold’s weakest time of the year seasonally. That’s a really-bullish omen heading into gold’s autumn rally.
While I’m penning this essay on Wednesday, it won’t be published until early on Jobs Friday the 5th. So I don’t yet know how the latest June US monthly jobs report played out. For long years that headline jobs data has often spawned considerable gold volatility, because it affects traders’ perceptions of the Fed’s rate path. Upside surprises boost rate-hike odds or erode rate-cut odds, often spawning big US dollar buying.
Gold-futures speculators look to the dollar’s fortunes for their primary trading cues, then do the opposite. Case in point was a month ago on Jobs Friday June 7th. On the eve of that report, gold closed up near $2,373 nearing the upper resistance of recent months’ high-consolidation trading range running $2,300 to $2,400. Overbought conditions can also be worked off gradually through sideways drifts rather than fast selloffs.
Overnight gold was slammed down to $2,333 an hour before that jobs data. After 18 months in a row of reporting adding gold reserves, China’s central bank declared it hadn’t done any buying in May. Then in typical Biden Administration fashion, that May US jobs report proved a huge four-standard-deviation beat! The +272k jobs actual trounced the +190k estimates, but that report’s internals were highly suspect like usual...
* * *
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2 weeks ago
Gold Surges to Six-Week High, Targets New Records
By: Bruce Powers | July 5, 2024
• Gold continues to rise, reaching a six-week high of 2,393, with bullish signals across all time frames suggesting a push towards 2,450.
Gold followed through on the upside Friday with a new high of 2,393, at the time of this writing. It continues to show strength as trading continues near the highs of the day. Bullish sentiment improved as gold reached a six-week high and is on track to close above that 2,388 price level.
Nevertheless, it is on track to end Friday’s session at a seven-week weekly closing high. There were only two previous weeks that ended higher. The closest was at 2,392 during the week of April 15. Since the session has not yet ended, it is still possible that Friday’s may end with only one week having a higher weekly close.
Strong Upward Momentum
Given this week’s strong bullish price action, following a choppy five weeks, gold is sitting in a bullish position to challenge the most recent trend high of 2,450. Whether it does so quickly or not remains to be seen. It is off to a good start so far. Not only can bullish developments be seen on both the daily and weekly charts, but the monthly period is also supportive of a bullish continuation of the trend. June’s high was 2,388, and as noted above, it was busted through today. Subsequently, if gold ends today above 2,388, a monthly bullish signal will have been confirmed.
Monthly Bull Breakout Triggered
Monthly patterns provide stronger signals. Gold is now aligned with bullish indications on each time frame. The daily, weekly, and monthly charts are all bullish. This alignment should increase the chance for gold to encounter the 2,450-record high and it will likely break out above it. Gold is coming up fast and it may keep rising with strong momentum. Potential new record high targets start with 2,462, followed by 2,480. However, there is a cluster of multiple Fibonacci targets beginning around 2,488. A 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish retracement completes at 2,494.
Remains in Consolidation Zone
Regardless of the above bullish indications, gold remains within a consolidation pattern. It could therefore continue to experience choppy price action for a while longer. However, so far, given the strong upward momentum exhibited this week, it may not give the bulls a chance to participate without aggressive action as it sharply heads towards highs.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Tight Range Hints at Upcoming Volatility Surge
By: Bruce Powers | July 2, 2024
• Gold's recent sideways action and contracting volatility within a symmetrical triangle pattern suggest an impending breakout, either bullish or bearish.
Additional sideways price action dominated gold trading on Tuesday, as it has for the past several days. Gold has been trading within a relatively tight range with a low of 2,318 and a high of 2,340. Today, it is on track to complete an inside day as trading has occurred within the price range of Monday. Those three days are contained within a larger seven-day sideways price range with the same high price but a lower low of 2,294.
A tightening price range is representative of contracting volatility, which can also be seen with the two moving averages on the chart as they have converged recently. The purple 20-Day MA and the orange 50-Day MA have been tracking close to each other since the shorter 20-Day crossed below the 50-Day MA on June 17.
Tightening Range Designs Symmetrical Triangle
In addition, a symmetrical triangle pattern has been added to the chart (dark blue). It is also a good representation of contracting volatility. If gold stays within the boundaries of the triangle, consolidation will continue. But once a breakout either up or town triggers, volatility should expand. What follows a period of contracting volatility is typically a clear pickup in momentum.
Multiple Tests of Resistance
For each of the past few days, resistance was retested around the 50-Day line and price was rejected to the downside each time. In addition, a top rising trend channel line was also successfully tested as resistance as it has converged with the 50-Day line. Further, recent price action has also recognized resistance around the downtrend line. In summary, there are two trendlines and two moving averages that identify resistance near the highs of the past seven trading days.
Since gold is in a downtrend price structure, seeing resistance at lines that used to represent support is bearish and supportive of an eventual continuation lower for gold. However, a signal is needed as a bullish reversal remains a possibility as well. Sometimes, when a chart pattern seems clear, but momentum and volatility have contracted, a swing in the alternate direction occurs. Nevertheless, it is best to be prepared for either a continuation lower or a bullish reversal and higher prices.
Breakout – Up or Down?
A breakdown is indicated on a drop below the lower triangle line and then more clearly on a drop below the recent swing low at 2,294. There are then a couple interim price targets, but the primary downside target is 2,211 to 2,195. Meanwhile, bullish momentum should accelerate following a rise above 2,340 and more so on a move above last week’s high of 2,369.
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3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 29, 2024
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 23506. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 15 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 2 daysNevertheless, this market remains well above all seven of our intial support levels. Nonetheless, the market remains neutral on our system indicators.
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 24067. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23373 and overhead resistance forming above at 23497. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of June 3rd at 23042, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of May 20th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 23312. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 17th reaching 23826 failed to exceed the previous high of 24542 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only four weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23042. Additional support is to be found at 23263. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 29, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 246.2k, up 3.1k.
Once again, $2,300 drew bids, with Wednesday touching $2,305 intraday. By the end of the week, gold was up 0.4 percent for the week to $2,340/ounce.
Gold bugs have defended $2,300 for just over two months now. The metal came under pressure after recording a fresh high of $2,449 on April 12th. On May 20th, a new high of $2,454 was hit. Soon after, sellers appeared, but they have not been able to push the metal under $2,300.
From the bulls’ perspective, they have successfully held $2,300, but have been unable to use it as a launching pad for a new rally. The 50-day ($2,352) is beginning to roll over, with gold closing under the average in 14 out of the last 15 sessions.
Gold has come a long way since last October when it ticked $1,824 (was $1,996 this February) and cannot afford to lose $2,300.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Struggles Below Key Moving Averages
By: Bruce Powers | June 28, 2024
• Gold struggled against resistance at 2,340 and declined to 2,319, forming a bearish shooting star pattern for Friday..
Gold challenged resistance around the 50-Day MA earlier in Friday’s trading session but failed to retain the advance. Resistance was seen at 2.34 and was followed by a decline. As the end of the week approaches gold continues to trade near the lows of the day. At the time of this writing the low was 2,319. It is on track to close the day with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern.
Resistance Seen Again at 20-Day MA
Heading into next week, unless gold can get back above this week’s high of 2,340, it is pointing to lower prices. The 20-Day MA crossed below the 50-Day MA three weeks ago signaling a weakening trend. Further, all this week the 50-Day MA acted as an area of resistance and today’s downside reaction further confirms that resistance. Both moving averages are angled down.
The May 3 swing high at 2,277 is a key price level as it forms the uptrend price structure of higher swing lows and higher swing highs. A decline below that level, followed by a daily close below it, will confirm a reversal of the bull trend.
Risk of Breakdown from Consolidation Top
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 2,262 and there may be some support seen around that price area. However, a drop below 2,277 triggers a breakdown of an approximate 8-Week consolidation top. That could lead to an acceleration in the price of gold to the downside towards the next lower target zone around the prior swing high of 2,212. Keep in mind that there is also an uptrend line around the support zone.
`Weekly Bullish Signal Above 2,340
Regardless of the bearish indication of today’s failed attempt to go higher, nothing is clear until there are further signals either confirming weakness or showing strength. A rally above today’s high of 2,340 would show strength and put gold back above the 50-Day MA, which is currently at 2,337. This week is set to close with a weekly high of 2,340 and a low of 2,294. So, a breakout above today’s high will also trigger a weekly bullish reversal. The two-week high is then at 2,369, representing the next potential weekly resistance zone.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Triggers Weekly Breakdown
By: Bruce Powers | June 26, 2024
• Gold's bearish flag and shooting star patterns suggest a likely drop below the recent swing low of 2,287, with key support levels at risk.
Gold triggered a bearish flag on the daily chart today and a shooting star on the weekly chart. The bear trend patterns point to a likely drop to below the recent swing low at 2,287. Previous support around the prior swing low from May 3 will likely follow and is at risk of being broken to the downside. At the time of this writing gold has reached a high of 2,324 today and a low of 2,294. But trading continues near the lows of the day and the daily low may be lower before today’s close.
Initial Downside Target at 2,262
Today’s decline also opens the possibility that gold reaches the downside target of 2,262. Falling to that price level will complete a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend begun from the February swing low. Interestingly, the 20-Week MA aligns with support of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a more significant target zone lies lower near the uptrend line.
That line is the bottom of a rising parallel trend channel. Gold is in the process of failing to hold strength near resistance at the top of the rising channel. Once resistance is seen at one side of the channel, a reversal back to the other side becomes possible. Therefore, if a drop below 2,277 occurs, a lower support zone starting around 2,211 and including the price area of the uptrend line is next on the agenda. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement completes there.
Bearish Moving Average Crossover Provided a Clue
The recent bearish crossover of the 20-Day MA falling below the 50-Day further confirms weakness and the bear trend. Moreover, a weekly bearish reversal triggered today, and it is supportive of a deeper retracement to test lower support levels. Unless there is a relatively rapid recovery to the upside, gold is facing at least one to two weeks of down to sideways price action. Either way, a rally above the 50-Day line at 2,340 would be the first sign of strength. However, a rise above the recent interim swing high of 2,369 would be needed for a bullish reversal signal at this point.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Tests Trendline Support Amid Bearish Flag Pattern
By: Bruce Powers | June 25, 2024
• Gold tests trendline support at 2,315, forming a potential bear flag pattern, with critical levels indicating possible further declines if breached.
Gold further rolls out a potential bear flag pattern with another test of trendline support at the day’s low of 2,315. The bearish setup follows a sharp one-day decline on June 7 that reached a low of 2,287. That drop began a second wave down for the correction. A fifth wave down is possible if the low price on June 7 is broken to the downside. An initial breakdown signal will occur a little below today’s low, which is almost touching the line. However, there is also a weekly price level to watch.
Last Week’s Bearish Candle is a Risk
Last week ended with a bearish weekly candlestick pattern in gold. Therefore, a weekly bearish signal is triggered on a drop below last week’s low of 2,307. Since it would be a weekly signal, the possibility of a subsequent drop below 2,287 greatly increases if that happens. Nevertheless, the most recent swing low is at 2,277 from May 3. That swing low is part of the price structure for the rising trend. If it fails to hold as support on a deeper pullback, a drop below it triggers the breakdown from a topping formation.
First Lower Target is 2,252
The first target below the May 3 swing low starts around 2,252. That price would complete a falling ABCD pattern and is shown on the chart as the end of wave 5 of the decline. Regardless, there is a potentially more significant price zone a little lower starting from around 2,211. Notice that an internal uptrend line converges with the price zone as well. That line is parallel to the top internal trend channel line. It acted as resistance during each of the two failed attempts to break out and continue to rally into higher prices.
Bull Breakout on Break Above 2,369
Alternatively, an upside breakout is not indicated until there is a rise above last week’s high of 2,369. Until then, if gold does not break down, it may further chop around within the developing rising flag consolidation pattern. Once that happens the prior swing high around 2,388 is next on the agenda followed by an attempt to continue into new record highs for gold.
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