Niger Political Melee Could Affect Foreign Uranium Cos
May 28 2009 - 2:30PM
Dow Jones News
As Kazakhstan investigates whether state officials sold uranium
assets to foreign companies illegally, Niger - and its uranium
market - is undergoing a small crisis of its own.
Niger President Mamadou Tandja dissolved parliament earlier this
week after a constitutional court said it would be illegal to hold
a public referendum on whether he could run for a third
presidential term.
His second five-year term runs its course later this year, but
the government had been angling for a constitutional change that
would allow him to run a third time.
Now that parliament is dissolved, a new parliament will
apparently have to be elected within three months. The government
also said Tandja wouldn't be bound by court or parliamentary
decisions regarding his move to run for a third term.
Political unrest, especially from opposing political parties, is
spreading, with street demonstrations and the rise of
anti-referendum coalitions.
On the face of it, this looks like political wrangling, but
given the history of power grabs in African countries, this could
be a precursor to economic instability in a region that often sees
the military step in to resolve political upheavals, one uranium
markets analyst said.
Kazakhstan's and Niger's political risks are now climbing in the
eyes of global uranium buyers.
"There is a strong possibility that the heightened political
risk globally may encourage fuel buyers to enter the spot market
over the next few months in order to build strategic inventories as
protection against possible supply disruption," said BMO Capital
Markets analyst Edward Sterck in a note Thursday.
Uranium spot prices are about US$50 a pound, a price that is
likely to mover higher if demand spikes.
Niger produces between 7% and 8% of the world's supply of
uranium, and the major players are there in earnest.
Cameco Corp. (CCJ), the world's largest uranium producer, has an
11% stake in Govi High Power Exploration Inc, a private company run
by Govind Friedland, who is the son of mining entrepreneur and
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) executive chairman Robert Friedland.
Cameco has the right to increase its ownership stake to 48% over
the next four years - a move that might be in jeopardy if the Niger
political landscape explodes, the analyst said.
Areva S.A. (CEI.FR) is expected to begin production at its
Imouraren uranium mine in 2012; it's to produce 5,000 metric tons a
year for some 35 years.
China Nuclear International Uranium Corp. is investing $300
million in a mine to come on stream by next year.
Niger Uranium Ltd. (URU.LN) has a number of potential prospects
in development while Australia's NGM Resources Ltd. (NGM.AU) has
three uranium concessions.
Company Web Site: http://www.cameco.com
-Brian Truscott, Dow Jones Newswires; 604-669-1595;
brian.truscott@dowjones.com
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