S&P Equity Research Sees Toy Sales Slowing in Face of Adversity, Competition
December 10 2007 - 4:02PM
PR Newswire (US)
Consumers choosing to look at other options this Holiday season NEW
YORK, Dec. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's Equity Research
Services' survey of consumer spending and attitudes for the Holiday
season shows that the toy industry may have a sub-par showing, as
shoppers opt for electronic entertainment device purchases.
Standard & Poor's believes this is the result of the noticeable
absence of must-have toys combined with the fallout from numerous
well-publicized product safety recalls. These were among the
findings from the survey conducted for Standard & Poor's Equity
Research by InsightExpress. This affirms the view that toy demand
will likely abate this season, as stated in S&P Equity
Research's 2007 Holiday Retail Outlook and Stock Picks, published
by Standard & Poor's, a leading provider of financial market
intelligence. "While we don't expect toy sales to dissipate
entirely, we do see consumers moving into two camps, which will
determine the demand and outcome," notes Erik Kolb, Toys Analyst
for Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services. Among
respondents, 25% indicated they were concerned about toy recalls.
In contrast, 31% of those surveyed answered that these events were
of little or no concern. "A look at these barbell results confirms
our belief that for a substantial number of shoppers it will be
'business-as-usual' when it comes to toy purchases, and those with
concerns will look elsewhere." Standard & Poor's Equity
Research believes that those retailers offering video game consoles
and software will be the benefactors of the weaker toy sales. We
think these items are likely to be substitutes for toys for
children ages 6 and up and will lead to a modest shift in spending.
"One way in which consumers may be expressing their concerns is by
looking for options that aren't touched by any of the issues at the
center of the recalls," says Michael Souers, Specialty Retail
Analyst for Standard & Poor's Equity Research. "We think this
may be good news for consumer electronic and gaming retailers. With
demand far outstripping supply, the Nintendo Wii may be as close to
a must-have item as there is this season. There's also noticeable
excitement among gamers over a number of software releases. In our
view, GameStop (GME: Hold; $61) and Best Buy (BBY: Strong Buy; $53)
appear to be particularly well positioned to take advantage of this
increased demand." Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services'
survey of consumer behavior and attitudes was conducted during
November 2007 by InsightExpress. The survey sample consisted of
1,100 respondents throughout the U.S. to an online survey
consisting of approximately 25 questions regarding their Holiday
spending plans as well as their outlook for early 2008. S&P
Equity Research's 2007 Holiday Retail Outlook and Stock Picks was
released in November 2007. The report examines the trends within
the consumer discretionary retail industry for the Holiday season,
and discusses the potential outcomes. Standard & Poor's Equity
Research Services believes that retail sales will be weighed down
by an array of economic concerns on consumers' minds, including
continued housing weakness and high energy costs. The report
identifies many companies that have upside potential, along with
stocks that may experience weak performance based on their current
market position and exposure. Retail analysts generally consider
Christmas and Chanukah to be the biggest spending holidays,
accounting for approximately 25% of GAFO (general merchandise,
apparel, and other store) sales. S&P Economics sees GAFO sales
rising 3% to 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2007. The analysts
quoted above are Standard & Poor's equity analysts. They have
no affiliation with any company they cover, nor any ownership
interest in any companies they cover. Members of the media can
request a copy of S&P Equity Research's 2007 Holiday Retail
Outlook and Stock Picks by contacting Jeff Sexton at 212-438-3448,
or via e-mail to . About Standard & Poor's Equity Research
Services As the world's largest producer of independent equity
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institutions for their investors and advisors, including 19 of the
top 20 securities firms, 13 of the top 20 banks, and 11 of the top
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experienced U.S., European and Asian equity analysts use a
fundamental, bottom-up approach to assess a global universe of
approximately 2,000 equities across more than 120 industries
worldwide. Follow Standard & Poor's equity analysts' U.S.
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http://www.equityresearch.standardandpoors.com/. The equity
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Poor's Equity Research Services are performed separately from any
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Poor's Equity Research Services has no access to non-public
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analysts is governed by the firm's Research Objectivity Policy, a
copy of which may also be found at
http://www.standardandpoors.com/. About Standard & Poor's
Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies
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