Hopeful Banks Add Less To Reserves For Loan Losses
July 31 2009 - 1:52PM
Dow Jones News
The tide of troubled loans is still rising, but bankers believe
they need fewer sandbags to stem the flood.
In the second quarter, many of the nation's largest banks added
less than in the first quarter to their loan loss reserve, which is
the capital banks set aside to cover loans written off because
borrowers can't pay them back.
Banks have taken their medicine early, analysts said; now they
can pace themselves. Reserves, particularly for mortgages, could
already prove strong enough to sustain them through the crisis,
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Financial Officer Michael
Cavanagh told shareholders recently.
Further, the slower second-quarter reserve build reflects the
impression that, as U.S. Bancorp (USB) Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Cecere said in an interview, things "are getting worse at a
slower pace."
That doesn't mean banks are done adding to their reserves, but
levels are in much better shape than at the beginning of the year.
If the trend holds, future reserve additions won't strain banks'
painstakingly rebuilt capital levels.
In the second quarter, SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) added $161
million to its loan loss reserve, compared with $384 million in the
first. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) added $700 million, compared
with $1.3 billion in the first quarter; U.S. Bancorp put $466
million into its reserve, $64 million less than in the first
quarter.
At JPMorgan Chase, Keycorp (KEY), SunTrust, Capital One
Financial Corp. (COF) and American Express Co. (AXP), the
provision, the money banks set aside each quarter to cover loan
losses and what they add to the reserve, declined from the first
quarter.
Delinquent loans have hurt earnings badly and will continue to
do so for some time. But banks' loan books have been shrinking;
that's one argument that less reserving will be required for
potential losses.
Moreover, early stage consumer delinquencies - where loans are
less than 60 days overdue - are declining, say bankers such as Tom
Freeman, chief risk officer of SunTrust. Freeman said the slower
growth in reserves "is largely due" to that trend.
Some bankers and analysts warn that seasonal improvements and
the impact of President Barack Obama's economic stimulus might be
behind the improvement in early stage delinquencies, rather than a
turn for the better in the economy.
A cautionary note from Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg: Some
banks, including SunTrust and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB),
"highlighted improvement in early stage delinquencies" in the first
quarter 2008, "which turned out to be misleading."
"No one appeared ready to declare victory" just yet, he
wrote.
The slowdown in reserves, while unemployment continues to climb
and businesses struggle, runs the risk of being premature. The
percentage decline in loan loss reserves, FBR Capital Markets
analysts wrote in a research report, is "increasing our concerns"
about bank profits in the second half.
For some banks, like KeyCorp, loan loss reserves and capital are
strong, giving analysts such as Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital
Markets little concern even when loan losses are higher than
expected. The loan loss reserve ratio at the Cleveland bank was
3.5% of total loans, compared to 4.3% at JPMorgan Chase and 5.6% at
Citigroup Inc. (C), while the loan loss reserve at Wells Fargo and
U.S. Bancorp remained below 3%. "North of 3% is strong," Cassidy
said.
During the last banking crisis in the 1990s, the reserve climbed
to 2.7% of loans for banks overall, and Peter Winter of BMO Capital
Markets expects banks to exceed that ratio by the end of this year.
"We expect banks to built loan loss reserves as long as charge-offs
rise," he said. But the reserve ratio might also continue to
improve simply because banks make fewer loans.
As Fifth Third Chief Financial Officer Ross Kari told investors
recently, "It's too early to say we're ahead of the game, but we're
certainly on top of it."
- By Matthias Rieker, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2471;
matthias.rieker@dowjones.com