Large Broadcast and Cable TV Operators Best Situated to Profit From Digital Television Bill, Says S&P Equity Research
December 22 2005 - 1:11PM
PR Newswire (US)
NEW YORK, Dec. 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- With the growing
likelihood that the U.S. House and Senate will pass the Digital
Transition and Public Safety Act of 2005 early next year, Standard
& Poor's Equity Research forecasts that large media operators
may be in the best position to exploit the many opportunities the
new legislation creates. Standard & Poor's made this
announcement Tuesday on Standard & Poor's MarketScope, the
firm's electronic platform for financial advisors and asset
managers featuring intra-day market commentary and independent
investment research and analysis. In effect, the current bill
wending its way through both houses of Congress sets a Digital
Television (DTV) "hard date" of 2/17/09, by which time local TV
broadcasters would surrender analog broadcast spectrum to the US
government, a process which could fetch over $10 billion in a
public auction. According to Tuna Amobi, Standard & Poor's
equity analyst for the Broadcasting, Cable & Satellite
industries, the final Bill may also include a pro-consumer
provision on the potentially thorny issue of government subsidies
for digital-to-analog downconverter boxes for qualifying US
households. Still, with a total of $1.5 billion designated to
subsidize what S&P estimates to be over 20 million US homes
relying exclusively on free over-the-air broadcasting, combined
with 35 million or so analog cable homes (in many cases several
homes with multiple TV sets), the proposal could fall short of
insuring an orderly transition. Mr. Amobi states in his S&P
MarketScope comments that, "conspicuously missing from the proposed
DTV Bill is the intertwined issue of digital 'multi-cast
must-carry' -- which would address the pre- and post-DTV mandate
for cable carriage of dual analog/digital broadcast signals, as
well as multiple digital streams from local TV stations." While the
cable industry scored a key win with a favorable FCC vote on
digital multicasting earlier in 2005, the issue is likely to
resurface on the Congressional agenda in 2006, perhaps through a
separate Bill or an Appropriations amendment. Over the course of
the DTV transition, however, Amobi expects local TV broadcasters to
increasingly attempt to extract additional revenues from cable
operators, through increased "cash-for-carriage" demands for
retransmission consent. In terms of impacts on specific companies'
fortunes, Amobi suggests that these developments will continue to
favor larger media operators. "Local TV broadcasters that are part
of media conglomerates such as Disney (DIS: Buy; $24), Viacom
(VIA.B: Hold; $34) and News Corp.'s (NWS: Hold; $17; NWS.A: Hold;
$16) Fox TV, mostly with leading O&O stations in major US
markets, are well-positioned to negotiate adequate "in-kind"
compensation, including further launches of branded cable networks,
or increasingly, forced carriage of multiple digital streams," he
says. "Furthermore, bigger cable operators such as Comcast (CMCSA:
Hold; $27; CMCSK: Hold; $26), vertically integrated Time Warner
(TWX: Buy; $18) or well-clustered Cablevision (CVC), with
relatively manageable spectrum constraints, are likely to face
relatively minimal DTV or retransmission consent exposure." S&P
believes that not all operators will do as well by the legislation.
Amobi predicts a possible squeeze for smaller cable operators such
as Mediacom (MCCC: Hold; $5), RCN (RCNI: $24), Insight or Cable
One, and similarly for independent local broadcasters such as LIN
TV (TVL: Avoid; $12), Young Broadcasting (YBTVA: Avoid; $3) and
Hearst Argyle (HTV: Hold; $24) -- many of who now already face
declines in network compensation, amid tepid growth in traditional
advertising revenues. About Standard & Poor's Equity Research
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& Poor's equity analysts' US market commentary each day at
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http://www.standardandpoors.com/ or by clicking here. About
Standard & Poor's Standard & Poor's is the world's foremost
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information, visit http://www.standardandpoors.com/. DATASOURCE:
Standard & Poor's CONTACT: Mary Loffredo Standard & Poor's
Communications Tel.: +1-212-438-3468 Tuna Amobi Standard &
Poor's Equity Research Tel.: +1-212-438-9550 Web site:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/
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