Athabasca Oil Corporation (TSX: ATH) (“Athabasca” or the “Company”)
is pleased to provide its 2019 year-end results and annual
reserves.
2019 Corporate Highlights
- Production: Annual production of ~36,200 boe/d
(87% liquids) which included ~10,100 boe/d (54% liquids) in Light
Oil and ~26,100 bbl/d in Thermal Oil.
- Funds Flow, Capital Expenditures & Free Cash
Flow: Annual Adjusted Funds Flow of ~$155 million
($0.30/share) and ~$140 million of capital expenditures resulting
in approximately $15 million of Free Cash Flow.
- Netbacks: Maintained top decile annual Light
Oil Operating Netback of $25.68/boe; annual Thermal Oil Operating
Netback of $19.59/bbl ($23.35/bbl Leismer & $11.50/bbl
Hangingstone).
- Balance Sheet & Sustainability: Year-end
Net Debt of $308 million representing 2.0x Net Debt to Adjusted
Funds Flow and 1.4x Adjusted EBITDA
2019 Reserves
- Reserves: 1.3 billion boe Proved plus Probable
(2P) Reserves, including 1 billion barrels at Leismer/Corner.
Proved Developed Producing (PDP) Reserves increased 3 mmboe to 81
mmboe.
- Value Optimization: 19% increase in PDP value
to $1.1 billion through drilling additions and cost optimization,
offsetting lower commodity prices.
- Net Asset Value: $1.58/share PDP,
$4.92/share Proved and $8.90/share 2P.
2020 Resiliency and Disciplined
Operations
- Balance Sheet: Strong liquidity of $340
million (cash equivalents & available credit facilities)
provides business flexibility during commodity price volatility and
market egress constraints.
- Low Sustaining Capital: $125 million 2020
capital budget aimed at sustaining production between 36,000 –
37,500 boe/d (88% liquids).
- Risk Management. Protection in place to
mitigate near term pricing volatility including 18,000 bbl/d of
Western Canadian Select hedged for H1 2020 at ~C$49.25 vs. strip at
~C$42.75 (Mar. 2).
- Strong Business Momentum: A recent 5-well pad
at Leismer is supporting project volumes at ~20,000 bbl/d and the
majority of 26 Light Oil wells (11.8 net) are planned to be on
stream in H1.
In 2020, Athabasca remains focused on its drive
for free cash flow while maintaining its production base with
prudent capital expenditures. The Company plans to optimize its
capital structure, including reducing debt levels over the next
year. Athabasca maintains long term optionality across a deep
inventory of high-quality Thermal Oil projects and flexible Light
Oil development opportunities. This balanced portfolio provides
shareholders with differentiated exposure to liquids weighted
production and significant long reserve life assets.
Business Environment
In 2019 and 2020 the Alberta government has
continued mandated industry production curtailments at modest
levels to manage unprecedented differentials due to a lack of
egress. Athabasca is supportive of this government tool to
manage extreme pricing dislocations and to provide a bridge to
pipeline projects. WCS heavy differentials averaged US$12.76
for 2019 and US$15.83 for Q4 2019. In the first quarter of 2020,
differentials increased modestly to settle at US$20.53. The outlook
for the balance of 2020 has improved to ~US$15.75 (March 2 strip)
driven by seasonality impacts over the summer, pipeline
optimization and industry crude by rail ramp-up.
The global heavy oil market continues to see
structural supply declines in Venezuela and Mexico, extended OPEC
production cuts and growing petrochemical demand. These shifting
dynamics are expected to support heavy oil pricing benchmarks with
US refineries in PADD II and III requiring a heavier
feedstock. Athabasca is well positioned for this changing
dynamic with its Thermal Oil assets.
With continued market access constraints,
Athabasca has been prudent in securing long term transportation
agreements and protecting realized pricing through its hedging
program. For the balance of 2020 Athabasca has hedged ~12,500 bbl/d
of WTI at ~US$55 and ~14,500 bbl/d of WCS differential at US$18.25
(March – December). 8,000 bbl/d is protected from apportionment
through direct sales to refineries. The Company has secured long
term capacity on the TC Energy Keystone XL pipeline and the Trans
Mountain Expansion Project.
Recent concerns surrounding COVID19 has resulted
in markets reacting to potential demand disruptions.
Athabasca has protection against low commodity prices through its
hedging strategy. The Company is also fortunate to have a minimal
capital program that can maintain production at current
levels. For 2020, the Company will have completed the
majority of its capital program in H1 2020 with no requirement to
increase capital for the remainder of the year. Despite strong well
results, capital spending is flexible in the Placid Montney and
protected through a strong Joint Development Agreement in the
Duvernay that ensures minimal spending for the foreseeable future.
In Thermal Oil, our production base at Leismer has been sustained
through its most recent 5-well pad that is now on production.
Hangingstone does not require sustaining capital this year.
In addition to these measures, the Company has maintained strong
liquidity of $340 million to protect against significant market
volatility. Although the Company intends to optimize its capital
structure, including reducing debt levels, the end of term on its
existing high yield instrument is February 2022. Athabasca has been
acutely aware of market volatility and intends on protecting the
Company in the short term while ensuring its long term assets
retain their upside potential.
The Company has been disappointed with the lack
of Regulatory and Fiscal certainty resulting from poor Federal
policy in Canada. Although there have been recent positive
developments on market egress, this uncertainty has delayed returns
that our investors expect. Canada is fortunate to have an abundance
of resources and the technical strength for responsible
development. With strong political leadership, we can balance
Environmental, Social and Governance factors while also maintaining
a thriving economy. Our Company is firm in its belief that we
develop Energy responsibly to make lives better. The world needs
more Canadian Energy, not less.
Financial and Operational Highlights
|
Three months endedDecember
31, |
|
Year endedDecember 31, |
|
($ Thousands, unless otherwise noted) |
2019 |
|
2018 |
|
2019 |
|
2018 |
|
CONSOLIDATED |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Petroleum and natural gas production (boe/d) |
|
36,403 |
|
|
37,984 |
|
|
36,196 |
|
|
39,203 |
|
Operating Income (Loss)(1)(2) |
$ |
42,881 |
|
$ |
(53,180 |
) |
$ |
233,219 |
|
$ |
94,118 |
|
Operating Netback(1)(2) ($/boe) |
$ |
13.84 |
|
$ |
(14.80 |
) |
$ |
17.95 |
|
$ |
6.52 |
|
Capital expenditures |
$ |
69,796 |
|
$ |
65,399 |
|
$ |
199,141 |
|
$ |
276,328 |
|
Capital Expenditures Net of Capital-Carry(1) |
$ |
46,259 |
|
$ |
46,042 |
|
$ |
140,207 |
|
$ |
193,980 |
|
LIGHT OIL DIVISION |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Petroleum and natural gas production (boe/d) |
|
8,642 |
|
|
12,609 |
|
|
10,138 |
|
|
11,280 |
|
Percentage liquids (%) |
54% |
|
55% |
|
54% |
|
51% |
|
Operating Income (Loss)(1) |
$ |
16,287 |
|
$ |
22,121 |
|
$ |
95,004 |
|
$ |
107,144 |
|
Operating Netback(1) ($/boe) |
$ |
20.49 |
|
$ |
19.07 |
|
$ |
25.68 |
|
$ |
26.02 |
|
Capital expenditures |
$ |
46,473 |
|
$ |
39,569 |
|
$ |
109,687 |
|
$ |
192,495 |
|
Capital Expenditures Net of Capital-Carry(1) |
$ |
22,936 |
|
$ |
20,212 |
|
$ |
50,753 |
|
$ |
110,147 |
|
THERMAL OIL DIVISION |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bitumen production (bbl/d) |
|
27,761 |
|
|
25,375 |
|
|
26,058 |
|
|
27,923 |
|
Operating Income (Loss)(1) |
$ |
28,658 |
|
$ |
(84,544 |
) |
$ |
182,196 |
|
$ |
10,669 |
|
Operating Netback(1) ($/bbl) |
$ |
12.44 |
|
$ |
(34.72 |
) |
$ |
19.59 |
|
$ |
1.03 |
|
Capital expenditures |
$ |
23,229 |
|
$ |
25,703 |
|
$ |
89,343 |
|
$ |
83,696 |
|
CASH FLOW AND FUNDS FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash flow from operating activities |
$ |
32,975 |
|
$ |
(2,253 |
) |
$ |
92,632 |
|
$ |
83,844 |
|
per share – basic |
$ |
0.06 |
|
$ |
— |
|
$ |
0.18 |
|
$ |
0.16 |
|
Adjusted Funds Flow(1) |
$ |
21,478 |
|
$ |
(75,296 |
) |
$ |
154,760 |
|
$ |
6,175 |
|
per share – basic |
$ |
0.04 |
|
$ |
(0.15 |
) |
$ |
0.30 |
|
$ |
0.01 |
|
NET INCOME (LOSS) AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) |
$ |
(8,757 |
) |
$ |
(488,479 |
) |
$ |
246,865 |
|
$ |
(569,657 |
) |
per share – basic |
$ |
(0.02 |
) |
$ |
(0.95 |
) |
$ |
0.47 |
|
$ |
(1.11 |
) |
per share – diluted |
$ |
(0.02 |
) |
$ |
(0.95 |
) |
$ |
0.47 |
|
$ |
(1.11 |
) |
COMMON SHARES OUTSTANDING |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weighted average shares outstanding – basic |
|
523,428,276 |
|
|
515,862,850 |
|
|
521,316,320 |
|
|
514,151,731 |
|
Weighted average shares outstanding – diluted |
|
523,428,276 |
|
|
515,862,850 |
|
|
526,290,689 |
|
|
514,151,731 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec. 31, |
|
Dec. 31, |
|
As at ($ Thousands) |
2019 |
|
2018 |
|
LIQUIDITY AND BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
$ |
254,389 |
|
$ |
73,898 |
|
Available credit facilities(3) |
$ |
85,815 |
|
$ |
126,491 |
|
Capital-carry receivable (current and long-term portion -
undiscounted) |
$ |
22,740 |
|
$ |
81,675 |
|
Face value of long-term debt(4) |
$ |
583,425 |
|
$ |
614,070 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1) Refer to “Reader Advisory” in this News Release and the
“Advisories and Other Guidance” section in the MD&A for
additional information on Non-GAAP Financial Measures.(2) Includes
realized commodity risk management losses of $2.1 million and $44.0
million for the three months and year ended December 31, 2019,
respectively (December 31, 2018 - $9.2 million gain and $(23.7)
million loss).(3) Includes available credit under Athabasca's
Credit Facility and Unsecured Letter of Credit Facility.(4) The
face value of the 2022 Notes is US$450 million. The 2022 Notes were
translated into Canadian dollars at the December 31, 2019 exchange
rate of US$1.00 = C$1.2965.
Operations Update
Thermal Oil
Production for 2019 and Q4 2019 averaged 26,058
bbl/d and 27,761 bbl/d, respectively. 2019 production was impacted
by government curtailments early in the year and facility
maintenance during Q2 2019. The Thermal Oil division generated
Operating Income of $182.2 million and $28.7 million in 2019 and Q4
2019, respectively, with Operating Netbacks of $19.59/bbl
($23.35/bbl at Leismer and $11.50/bbl at Hangingstone) and
$12.44/bbl ($16.34/bbl at Leismer and $1.46/bbl at Hangingstone)
for those respective periods. Capital expenditures for 2019 and Q4
2019 were $89.3 million and $23.2 million, respectively.
Production at Leismer averaged ~20,100 bbl/d in
December supported by the five-well pair sustaining pad (Pad L7)
that was brought on production in Q4 2019. The pad utilized
technology to increase well lengths by 50% to ~1,250 meters per
well. L7 project capital totaled $34 million (drilling, completions
and facilities) and benefited from Emission Reduction Grants from
the Government of Alberta and long-lead pre-investment by the
previous operator. The project boasts strong capital efficiencies
of ~$7,000/bbl/d with an expected stable production profile for
multiple years.
Athabasca has commenced long lead initiatives
for Pad L8 and has the flexibility to drill these wells when market
conditions improve and the Leismer plant currently has steam
capacity available for these wells. A water disposal project will
be commissioned in Q2 2020 and is expected to reduce non-energy
operating costs by $10 million on an annual basis. Through the
addition of Pad L7 and cost structure improvements, Athabasca
increased the PDP value of the reserves at Leismer in 2019 by 35%
despite a lower price deck and increased transportation costs as a
result of the non-core infrastructure sale (based on McDaniel 2019
NPV10 before tax).
At Hangingstone, the Company will complete its
first facility turnaround during the second quarter. The facility
is expected to be offline for approximately two weeks with
production recovery expected over the following few months.
Athabasca has accounted for the planned downtime and recovery
within its 2020 guidance.
Light Oil
Production averaged 10,138 boe/d (54% liquids)
and 8,642 boe/d (54% liquids) for 2019 and Q4 2019, respectively.
The business division generated Operating Income of $95.0 million
($25.68/boe) and $16.3 million ($20.49/boe) during these periods.
The Company’s Light Oil Netbacks are top tier when compared to
Alberta’s other liquids-rich Montney and Duvernay resource
producers and are supported by a high liquids weighting and low
operating expenses. Capital expenditures were $50.8 million and
$22.9 million (net of capital carry) for 2019 and Q4 2019
respectively.
The liquids rich Montney at Greater Placid is
positioned for flexible and efficient development. The Company
recently completed 2 multi-well pads (10 wells) which are expected
to be on stream in Q2 2020. Drilling and completion costs
(“D&C”) averaged $5.9 million per well on the recent pads. The
liquids rich Montney play at Greater Placid has a track record of
consistently strong liquids yields, low lifting costs with a ~200
well inventory.
In the Greater Kaybob Duvernay, an active winter
campaign includes the drilling of 7 wells, 13 completions and 16
tie-ins weighted to H1 2020. Athabasca’s financial exposure remains
protected by the capital-carry through the winter program ($22.7
million remaining balance). In the volatile oil window, production
results have been consistently strong. D&C costs per well have
been reduced to ~C$7.5 million on recent wells (2-well pad) with
line of sight to further improvements with multi-well pad
development. These results compare favorably to the East Shale
Basin Duvernay due to lower capital costs and higher sustained
liquids rates.
|
Recent Kaybob Duvernay Production Rates |
Area |
Pad /
UWI |
Estimated Rate (IP30)1 |
|
|
boe/d |
% liquids |
Kaybob East |
100/06-06-065-17W5/00 (2 wells) |
900 |
90% |
Kaybob East |
100/09-03-065-18W5/00 (2
wells) |
750 |
86% |
Kaybob North |
100/14-23-065-20W5/00 (single
well)2 |
550 |
89% |
Kaybob North |
100/09-12-066-20W5/00 (single well) 2 |
525 |
89% |
|
1. IPs rounded to the nearest 25 boe/d with volumes adjusted for
shrinkage.2. Tied into temporary facilities and production is
currently constrained
In Q1 2020, a $C1 billion investment at Kaybob
(over four winter drilling seasons) will be completed that has seen
the vast land position retained and the play commercially
de-risked. The Duvernay play is now positioned for compelling
future development. Athabasca has entered into an updated five-year
plan under the Joint Development Agreement (“JDA”) with its joint
venture partner. The plan has C$50 – 60 million gross ($15 – 18
million net) annual capital spend levels between 2021-2024. The
updated development plan will protect the Company’s interests and
was designed to be self-funding in the current environment. Future
changes to the JDA requires approval from both parties and
preserves optionality to increase spending in a more robust macro
environment.
Reiterating 2020 Budget and
Outlook
Athabasca is reiterating its front-end weighted
2020 capital program with expenditures aimed at sustaining base
production.
|
|
2020 Guidance |
Full
Year |
CORPORATE |
|
Production (boe/d) |
36,000 – 37,500 |
% Liquids |
~88% |
Capital Expenditures ($MM) |
$125 |
|
|
LIGHT OIL |
|
Production (boe/d) |
10,000 – 10,500 |
Capital Expenditures (net of capital-carry) ($MM) |
$60 |
|
|
THERMAL OIL |
|
Production (bbl/d) |
26,000 – 27,000 |
Capital Expenditures ($MM) |
$65 |
|
|
2019 Year-End Reserves
Athabasca’s independent reserves evaluator,
McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. (“McDaniel”), prepared
the year-end reserves evaluation effective December 31, 2019.
Proved Plus Probable reserves increased to 1,297
mmboe. This highlights Athabasca’s low relative sustaining capital
advantage to maintain a significant liquids weighted reserve
base.
Proved Developed Producing reserves increased to
81 mmboe, representing 4% growth year-over-year. The Company was
able to increase the value of its Proved Developed Producing
reserves by 19% to $1.1 billion with cost structure optimization at
all assets, high liquids well conversions at Kaybob Duvernay and
Leismer Pad L7 reclassification to PDP from Proved Undeveloped,
offsetting a lower price deck and the inclusion of Leismer
infrastructure tolls (based on McDaniel 2019 NPV10 before tax).
The Company estimates its 2019 Net Asset Value
of $1.58/share Proved Developed Producing, $4.92/share Proved and
$8.90/share Proved Plus Probable (McDaniel 2019 NPV10 before tax
less year-end net debt of $308 million).
|
|
Light Oil |
Thermal Oil |
Corporate |
|
2018 |
2019 |
2018 |
2019 |
2018 |
2019 |
Reserves
(mmboe) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proved Developed Producing |
15 |
13 |
63 |
68 |
78 |
81 |
Total Proved |
49 |
46 |
404 |
410 |
453 |
456 |
Proved Plus Probable |
74 |
72 |
1,205 |
1,225 |
1,279 |
1,297 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NPV10 BT
($MM)1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proved Developed Producing |
$205 |
$170 |
$746 |
$963 |
$951 |
$1,133 |
Total Proved |
$410 |
$375 |
$2,203 |
$2,507 |
$2,613 |
$2,882 |
Proved Plus Probable |
$628 |
$604 |
$4,279 |
$4,364 |
$4,907 |
$4,968 |
|
1) Net present value of future net revenue before tax and at a
10% discount rate (NPV 10 before tax) for 2019 is based on an
average of McDaniel, Sproule and GLJ pricing as at January 1, 2020.
NPV 10BT for 2018 is based on an average of McDaniel, Sproule and
GLJ pricing as at January 1, 2019.2) For additional information
regarding Athabasca’s reserves and resources estimates, please see
“Independent Reserve and Resource Evaluations” in the Company’s
2019 Annual Information Form which is available on Company’s
website or on SEDAR www.sedar.com. 3) Numbers in the table may not
add precisely due to rounding.
About Athabasca Oil Corporation
Athabasca Oil Corporation is a Canadian energy
company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and
light oil assets. Situated in Alberta’s Western Canadian
Sedimentary Basin, the Company has amassed a significant land base
of extensive, high quality resources. Athabasca’s common shares
trade on the TSX under the symbol “ATH”. For more information,
visit www.atha.com.
For more information, please contact:Matthew Taylor
Chief Financial Officer
1-403-817-9104
mtaylor@atha.com
Reader Advisory:
This News Release contains forward-looking
information that involves various risks, uncertainties and other
factors. All information other than statements of historical fact
is forward-looking information. The use of any of the words
“anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”,
“will”, “project”, “believe”, “view”, ”contemplate”,
“target”, “potential” and similar expressions are intended to
identify forward-looking information. The forward-looking
information is not historical fact, but rather is based on the
Company’s current plans, objectives, goals, strategies, estimates,
assumptions and projections about the Company’s industry, business
and future operating and financial results. This information
involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors
that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from
those anticipated in such forward-looking information. No assurance
can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and
such forward-looking information included in this News Release
should not be unduly relied upon. This information speaks only as
of the date of this News Release. In particular, this News Release
contains forward-looking information pertaining to, but not limited
to, the following: our strategic plans and growth strategies; the
Company’s 2020 guidance; future debt levels; 2020 non-energy
operating costs; timing and related recovery from the Hangingstone
facility turnaround; timing to commission a water disposal project
at Leismer and the expected benefits therefrom; timing of Greater
Placid Montney on stream dates and expected benefits therefrom; our
drilling plans in the Greater Kaybob Duvernay; type well economic
metrics; and other matters.
Information relating to "reserves" is also
deemed to be forward-looking information, as it involves the
implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions,
that the reserves described exist in the quantities predicted or
estimated and that the reserves can be profitably produced in the
future. With respect to forward-looking information contained in
this News Release, assumptions have been made regarding, among
other things: commodity outlook; the regulatory framework in the
jurisdictions in which the Company conducts business; the Company’s
financial and operational flexibility; the Company’s, capital
expenditure outlook, financial sustainability and ability to access
sources of funding; geological and engineering estimates in respect
of Athabasca’s reserves and resources; and other matters. Certain
other assumptions related to the Company’s Reserves are
contained in the report of McDaniel evaluating Athabasca’s
Proved Reserves, Probable Reserves and Contingent Resources as at
December 31, 2019 (which is respectively referred to herein as the
"McDaniel Report”).
Actual results could differ materially from
those anticipated in this forward-looking information as a result
of the risk factors set forth in the Company’s Annual Information
Form (“AIF”) dated March 4, 2020 available on SEDAR at
www.sedar.com, including, but not limited to: fluctuations in
commodity prices, foreign exchange and interest rates; political
and general economic, market and business conditions in Alberta,
Canada, the United States and globally; changes to royalty regimes,
environmental risks and hazards; the potential for management
estimates and assumptions to be inaccurate; the dependence on
Murphy as the operator of the Company’s Duvernay assets; the
capital requirements of Athabasca’s projects and the ability to
obtain financing; operational and business interruption risks;
failure by counterparties to make payments or perform their
operational or other obligations to Athabasca in compliance with
the terms of contractual arrangements; aboriginal claims; failure
to obtain regulatory approvals or maintain compliance with
regulatory requirements; uncertainties inherent in estimating
quantities of reserves and resources; litigation risk;
environmental risks and hazards; reliance on third party
infrastructure; hedging risks; insurance risks; claims made in
respect of Athabasca’s operations, properties or assets; risks
related to Athabasca’s amended credit facilities and senior
secured notes; and risks related to Athabasca’s common
shares.
Also included in this press release are
estimates of Athabasca's 2020 guidance which are based on the
various assumptions as to production levels, commodity prices,
currency exchange rates and other assumptions disclosed in this
news release. To the extent any such estimate constitutes a
financial outlook, it was approved by management and the Board of
Directors of Athabasca, and is included to provide readers with an
understanding of the Company’s outlook. Management does not have
firm commitments for all of the costs, expenditures, prices or
other financial assumptions used to prepare the financial outlook
or assurance that such operating results will be achieved and,
accordingly, the complete financial effects of all of those costs,
expenditures, prices and operating results are not objectively
determinable. The actual results of operations of the Company and
the resulting financial results may vary from the amounts set forth
herein, and such variations may be material. The financial outlook
contained in this New Release was made as of the date of this press
release and the Company disclaims any intention or obligations to
update or revise such financial outlook, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant
to applicable law.
Oil and Gas Information
“BOEs" may be misleading, particularly if used
in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of
natural gas to one barrel of oil equivalent (6 Mcf: 1 bbl) is based
on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at
the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the
wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil
based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is
significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1,
utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an
indication of value.
Initial Production Rates
Test Results and Initial Production Rates: The
well test results and initial production rates provided in this
presentation should be considered to be preliminary, except as
otherwise indicated. Test results and initial production rates
disclosed herein may not necessarily be indicative of long term
performance or of ultimate recovery.
Reserves Information
The McDaniel Report was prepared using the
assumptions and methodology guidelines outlined in the COGE
Handbook and in accordance with National Instrument 51-101
Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities, effective
December 31, 2019. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in
estimating quantities of bitumen, crude oil, natural gas, shale gas
and natural gas liquids reserves and the future cash flows
attributed to such reserves. The reserve and associated cash flow
information set forth above are estimates only. In general,
estimates of economically recoverable reserves and the future net
cash flows therefrom are based upon a number of variable factors
and assumptions, such as historical production from the properties,
production rates, ultimate reserve recovery, timing and amount of
capital expenditures, marketability of oil and natural gas, royalty
rates, the assumed effects of regulation by governmental agencies
and future operating costs, all of which may vary materially. For
those reasons, estimates of the economically recoverable reserves
attributable to any particular group of properties, classification
of such reserves based on risk of recovery and estimates of future
net revenues associated with reserves prepared by different
engineers, or by the same engineers at different times, may vary.
The Company's actual production, revenues, taxes and development
and operating expenditures with respect to its reserves will vary
from estimates thereof and such variations could be material.
Reserves figures described herein have been rounded to the nearest
MMbbl or MMboe. For additional information regarding the
consolidated reserves and information concerning the
resources of the Company as evaluated by McDaniel in the McDaniel
Report, please refer to the Company’s AIF.
Net Asset Value per share is calculated using
the estimated net present value of all future net revenue from our
reserves, before income taxes discounted at 10%, as estimated by
McDaniel effective December 31, 2019 and based on average pricing
of McDaniel, Sproule and GLJ as of January 1, 2020, minus our Net
Debt and divided by the number of common shares outstanding.
The 200 Montney drilling locations referenced
include: 77 proved undeveloped locations and 24 probable
undeveloped locations for a total of 101 booked locations with the
balance being unbooked locations. Proved undeveloped locations and
probable undeveloped locations are booked and derived from the
Company's most recent independent reserves evaluation as prepared
by McDaniel as of December 31, 2019 and account for drilling
locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as
applicable. Unbooked locations are internal management estimates.
Unbooked locations do not have attributed reserves or resources
(including contingent or prospective). Unbooked locations have been
identified by management as an estimation of Athabasca’s multi-year
drilling activities expected to occur over the next two decades
based on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering,
production and reserves information. There is no certainty that the
Company will drill all unbooked drilling locations and if drilled
there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional
oil and gas reserves, resources or production. The drilling
locations on which the Company will actually drill wells, including
the number and timing thereof is ultimately dependent upon the
availability of funding, oil and natural gas prices, provincial
fiscal and royalty policies, costs, actual drilling results,
additional reservoir information that is obtained and other
factors.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Adjusted Funds Flow is not intended to represent
cash flow from operating activities, net earnings or other measures
of financial performance calculated in accordance with IFRS. The
Adjusted Funds Flow measure allows management and others to
evaluate the Company’s ability to fund its capital programs and
meet its ongoing financial obligations using cash flow internally
generated from ongoing operating related activities. Adjusted Funds
Flow per share is calculated as Adjusted Funds Flow divided by the
applicable number of weighted average shares outstanding.
The Light Oil Operating Income (Loss) measure in
this News Release is calculated by subtracting royalties, operating
expenses and transportation & marketing expenses from petroleum
and natural gas sales. The Light Oil Operating Netback measure is
calculated by dividing the Light Oil Operating Income (Loss) by the
Light Oil production and is presented on a per boe basis. The Light
Oil Operating Income (Loss) and the Light Oil Operating Netback
measures allow management and others to evaluate the production
results from the Company’s Light Oil assets.
The Operating Income (Loss) measure in this News
Release with respect to the Leismer Project and Hangingstone
Project is calculated by subtracting the cost of diluent blending,
royalties, operating expenses and transportation & marketing
expenses from blended bitumen sales. The Thermal Oil Operating
Netback measure is calculated by dividing the respective projects
Operating Income (Loss) by its respective bitumen sales volumes and
is presented on a per barrel basis. The Thermal Oil Operating
Income (Loss) and the Thermal Oil Operating Netback measures allow
management and others to evaluate the production results from the
Company’s Thermal Oil assets.
The Consolidated Operating Income (Loss) measure
in this News Release is calculated by adding or subtracting
realized gains (losses) on commodity risk management contracts,
royalties, the cost of diluent blending, operating expenses and
transportation & marketing expenses from petroleum and natural
gas sales. The Consolidated Operating Netback measure is calculated
by dividing Consolidated Operating Income (Loss) by the total sales
volumes and is presented on a per boe basis. The Consolidated
Operating Income (Loss) and the Consolidated Operating Netback
measures allow management and others to evaluate the production
results from the Company’s Light Oil and Thermal Oil assets
combined together including the impact of realized commodity risk
management gains or losses.
The Consolidated Capital Expenditures Net of
Capital-Carry and Light Oil Capital Expenditures Net of
Capital-Carry measures in this News Release are outlined in the
Company’s Q4 2019 MD&A. These measures allow management and
others to evaluate the true net cash outflow related to Athabasca's
capital expenditures.
The Consolidated Free Cash Flow measure in this
News Release is calculated by subtracting the Capital Expenditures
Net of Capital-Carry from Adjusted Funds Flow. This measure allows
management and others to evaluate Athabasca's ability to generate
funds to finance our operations and capital expenditures.
Net Debt is defined as face value of term debt
plus current liabilities (adjusted for risk management contracts)
less current assets (adjusted for risk management contracts and
capital-carry receivable).
Adjusted EBITDA is defined as Net income (loss)
and comprehensive income (loss) before financing and interest
expense, depreciation, depletion, impairment and taxation
(recovery) expense adjusted for unrealized foreign exchange gain
(loss), unrealized gain (loss) on risk management contracts, gain
(loss) on revaluation of provisions and other, gain (loss) on sale
of assets and stock-based compensation.
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