Bombardier Aerospace today released its annual 20-year forecasts
for the business and commercial aircraft markets during a
pre-Farnborough media event, held at its headquarters in Dorval,
Quebec, that was simultaneously webcast.
As the business and commercial aircraft markets continue to
recover from the industry downturn, indicators are mixed, yet
trending positively. New aircraft orders are supported by continued
demand from developed markets and growth potential in emerging
markets, which are forecasted to play an increasingly important
role in the global aviation marketplace. Operators industry-wide
remain focused on fleet optimization and aircraft efficiency as
fuel prices and environmental concerns rise.
"We have built our leadership position in aviation by
continuously pushing the boundaries of product development to
better meet the needs of our customers, both those who operate our
aircraft and those who use them as a mode of transportation," said
Mairead Lavery, Vice President, Strategy, Business Development and
Structured Finance, Bombardier Aerospace. "We will continue to
deliver industry-leading mobility solutions, and we are positioning
ourselves for a period of growth by pursuing our international
expansion strategy to be closer to our customers in traditional and
emerging markets."
Business Aircraft Market Forecast
Bombardier is confident in the strong, long-term potential of
the business aircraft industry and forecasts a total of 24,000
business jet deliveries from 2012 to 2031 in all segments in which
Bombardier competes(i), which represents approximately $648 billion
US(ii) in industry revenues. The Bombardier Business Aircraft
Market Forecast anticipates 9,800 aircraft deliveries, worth $266
billion US, from 2012 to 2021 and 14,200 deliveries, worth $382
billion US, from 2022 to 2031.
While the business aviation market continues to recover, current
market indicators are mixed. Market confidence needs to be fully
restored for industry business jet deliveries to increase strongly
and enable the industry to realize its full potential. Deliveries
are expected to lag order intake as manufacturers strive to
maintain acceptable backlog levels, and business jet industry
deliveries for 2012 are expected to be comparable to 2011.
Bombardier believes business jet industry deliveries will return to
sustained growth starting in 2013, with the Large aircraft category
demonstrating the fastest growth.
Over the forecast period, Bombardier predicts that North America
will receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries
between 2012 and 2031 with 9,500 aircraft, followed by Europe, with
3,920 aircraft. Notably, China will become the third largest market
for business jet deliveries, with 2,420 deliveries from 2012 to
2031. Bombardier also expects key growth markets, including Brazil,
India, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),
Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey, to receive a significant
share of business jet deliveries during the next 20 years.
Through its investment in innovative transportation solutions,
Bombardier continues to lead the evolution of the business aviation
industry. New aircraft development programs, including the Learjet
70, Learjet 75, Learjet 85, Global 7000 and Global 8000 jets,
position Bombardier for long-term market leadership, and the
Company remains committed to the international expansion of its
services portfolio to better meet the needs of its customers.
Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast
Bombardier Aerospace's 20-year view of the 20- to 149-seat
commercial aircraft market calls for 12,800 deliveries from 2012 to
2031, generating over $630 billion US in sales revenue. This
represents a decrease of 300 units (2.3 per cent) compared to last
year's forecast, mainly due to a lower GDP forecast and a sharp
increase in the forecasted oil price.
Bombardier's forecasted industry deliveries by segment are:
-- 20 to 59 seats: 300 aircraft deliveries
-- 60 to 99 seats: 5,600 aircraft deliveries
-- 100 to 149 seats: 6,900 aircraft deliveries
In the 60- to 99-seat commercial aircraft market, Bombardier
expects that scope clauses in North American and European
operations will continue to ease to meet growing demand in this
market segment, valued at more than $180 billion US over the
20-year forecast period. In the 100- to 149-seat segment, a shift
in focus towards aircraft that are optimized for their intended
segments is expected to be a catalyst for demand as airlines move
away from derivatives of larger aircraft that were originally
designed for larger capacity. Deliveries from 2012 to 2031 in the
100- to 149-seat segment are forecast to be worth more than $449
billion US.
The global demand for air travel and new aircraft continues to
shift towards emerging markets. In 2011, Bombardier increased the
size of its commercial aircraft sales team, placing a strong
emphasis on these regions to meet this demand. However, as with the
business aircraft industry, North America is expected to lead the
way in aircraft deliveries over the forecast period, taking in an
expected 4,730 new aircraft, followed by China, with 2,220
aircraft, and Europe, including Russia and the CIS, with 2,240
aircraft.
The Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast predicts that
more than half of the current commercial aircraft fleet will be
replaced in the next 20 years - a slightly greater percentage than
expected last year. Technical obsolescence, cost inefficiencies and
age are driving the increasing pace of older aircraft retirements,
which will in turn have a positive impact on demand for new
aircraft. In addition, although high oil prices will continue to
challenge airlines' profitability, the arrival of new,
technologically advanced aircraft that deliver direct operating
cost reductions will accelerate the retirement of older, less
fuel-efficient aircraft.
With its optimized Q400 NextGen, CRJ NextGen and CSeries
commercial aircraft, Bombardier is extremely well positioned to
meet the demand for sustainable transportation solutions that marry
advanced technology, operational efficiency and passenger
appeal.
About Bombardier
Bombardier is the world's only manufacturer of both planes and
trains. Looking far ahead while delivering today, Bombardier is
evolving mobility worldwide by answering the call for more
efficient, sustainable and enjoyable transportation everywhere. Our
vehicles, services and, most of all, our employees are what make us
a global leader in transportation.
Bombardier is headquartered in Montreal, Canada. Our shares are
traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (BBD) and we are listed on the
Dow Jones Sustainability World and North America indexes. In the
fiscal year ended December 31, 2011, we posted revenues of $18.3
billion USD. News and information are available at bombardier.com
or follow us on Twitter @Bombardier.
Notes to editors
Follow @Bombardier_Aero on Twitter to receive the latest news
and updates from Bombardier Aerospace.
(i) Bombardier's competitive segmentation includes Light, Medium
and Large categories. Excludes very light jets and large corporate
airliners.
(ii) Unit values are based on B&CA magazine 2012 list prices
expressed in US$
Bombardier, CRJ, CSeries, Global 7000, Global 8000, Learjet 70,
Learjet 75, Learjet 85, NextGen and Q400 are trademarks of
Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This press release includes forward-looking statements, which
may involve, but are not limited to: statements with respect to our
objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, markets and
strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans,
expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions; general
economic and business outlook, prospects and trends of an industry;
expected growth in demand for products and services; product
development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity
or performance; expected or scheduled entry into service of
products and services, orders, deliveries, testing, lead times,
certifications and project execution in general; our competitive
position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory
environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations.
Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use
of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "expect",
"intend", "anticipate", "plan", "foresee", "believe", "continue" or
"maintain", the negative of these terms, variations of them or
similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements
require us to make assumptions and are subject to important known
and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause our actual
results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted
results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and
appropriate based on information currently available, there is a
risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with
respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking
statements made in this press release, refer to the respective
Guidance and forward-looking statements sections in Overview,
Bombardier Aerospace and Bombardier Transportation sections in the
Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") in the
Corporation's annual report for the fiscal year ended December 31,
2011.
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements
include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks
associated with our business environment (such as risks associated
with the financial condition of the airline industry and major rail
operators), operational risks (such as risks related to developing
new products and services; doing business with partners; product
performance warranty and casualty claim losses; regulatory and
legal proceedings; to the environment; dependence on certain
customers and suppliers; human resources; fixed-price commitments
and production and project execution), financing risks (such as
risks related to liquidity and access to capital markets, exposure
to credit risk, certain restrictive debt covenants, financing
support provided for the benefit of certain customers and reliance
on government support) and market risks (such as risks related to
foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases
in residual value and increases in commodity prices). For more
details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in Other. Readers
are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect
future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue
reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The
forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect our
expectations as at the date of the Corporation's MD&A and are
subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by
applicable securities laws, we expressly disclaim any intention,
and assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events
or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this
press release are expressly qualified by this cautionary
statement.
Contacts: Haley Dunne Bombardier Aerospace +1-514-855-7989
www.bombardier.com
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