Parex Resources Inc. (“Parex” or the “Company”) (TSX: PXT) is
pleased to announce a fulsome business update, alongside its 2023
budget and guidance. The Company is hosting a capital markets day,
which will be presented by members of Parex’s senior leadership
team. The event will be webcast on December 6, 2022, with a link
available at www.parexresources.com, beginning at 1:30 pm EST
(11:30 am MST). All amounts herein are in United States Dollars
(“USD”) unless otherwise stated.
Key Highlights
- Current
production exceeded 60,000 boe/d in early December 2022, the
highest in the Company’s history.
-
Incorporating recent Colombia tax reform, the Company continues to
have robust netbacks; at $80/bbl Brent pricing, Parex’s 2023
guidance is approximately $450 million of capital expenditures
(midpoint), average production of roughly 60,000 boe/d (midpoint)
and is expected to fully self-fund this plan with capacity for
potential incremental dividends as well as normal course issuer bid
(“NCIB”) share repurchases.
- Making
further investments in facilities and infrastructure in 2023 to
actively mitigate and arrest declines in core production areas,
such as LLA-34 and Cabrestero, which are expected to reduce
maintenance capital in future years.
- Unveiled
plan for 2023 through 2025, where post 2023 annual base production
growth is expected to be approximately 5%, excluding exposure to a
world-class exploration portfolio that has potential for
transformational discoveries in both oil and gas plays.
- Signed a
memorandum of understanding with Ecopetrol S.A., Colombia’s
national oil company, along the high-potential Foothills trend in
the Llanos Basin.
- Recent
positive well test results(1) at the Capachos Block and VIM-1
Block, either of which would currently rank among the top producing
wells in Colombia.
“I am extremely proud of our teams in Canada and
Colombia that overcame challenges throughout the year and delivered
on our promise of a 60,000 boe/d production rate by year end. This
achievement demonstrates the resiliency of our employees and
contractors, our world-class portfolio, and the potential we see in
Colombia for the years to come,” commented Imad Mohsen, President
and Chief Executive Officer.
“The 2023 plan builds on our 2022 successes and
our three-year outlook shows that even before exploration potential
is considered, Parex can grow its production at highly efficient
capital rates while increasing its returns to shareholders.”
Strategy
Parex’s corporate strategy is unchanged and
based on four key pillars: leveraging our Colombian advantage &
ESG performance, driving safe & sustainable operations,
strategically providing transformational exploration upside (“big
‘E’”), as well as delivering return of capital to shareholders.
Our strategic priorities build on 2022 successes
and for 2023 our priorities continue to be across three areas:
-
Exploitation & Technology: unlocking our
extensive land base using technology as we apply proven techniques
to drive step changes in capital efficiency.
-
Onshore Liquids & Gas Potential: increasing
our recovery factors and growing liquids production while pursuing
longer-term, underexplored gas plays.
-
Outsized Exploration Potential: focusing on
material conventional oil and gas prospects and giving investors
asymmetric risk and reward opportunities through a world-class
exploration portfolio
2023 Budget
2023 Budget Highlights
- Program
includes approximately 65 gross wells, with five operated rigs and
three non-operated rigs.
- Capital
expenditures at approximately $450 million (midpoint), which is
roughly 18% lower compared to 2022. This demonstrates the Company’s
commitment to capital discipline in a lower netback environment,
while ensuring strong free funds flow generation that is to be
returned to shareholders.
-
Approximately 75% of total capital is focused on investments in
operated blocks, with balanced deployment across multiple areas and
basins as the Company further diversifies its operations from
Southern Llanos Blocks LLA-34 and Cabrestero.
- Average
production is expected to be between 57,000 to 63,000 boe/d, and
forecast to be approximately 15% year-over-year absolute growth
(midpoint).
- The
production guidance range for 2023 has been widened relative to
previous years to better account for uncontrollable above ground
factors, with the midpoint including an increased downtime
contingency assumption. The low case accounts for increased
uncontrollable above ground factors and is not reflective of
forecast production decline.
- Free
funds flow (“FFF”)(2) estimated to be approximately $230 million at
$80/bbl Brent guidance, which is expected to be 100% returned to
shareholders through a combination of dividends and share
repurchases. Currently, the Company’s regular dividend is C$1.00
per share annualized, which is approximately $80 million, and
leaves an estimate of $150 million to be further returned to
shareholders.
- In due
course, the Company expects that it will submit a notice of
intention to make an NCIB to the Toronto Stock Exchange for
calendar 2023.
- Capital
plan includes the spudding of three big ‘E’ wells (Blocks: Arauca,
VIM-43 and LLA-122) that have the potential to be transformational
opportunities for the Company.
-
Approximately $45 million of capital expenditures relate to carry
capital from the Arauca and LLA-38 farm-in agreement with Ecopetrol
S.A., announced on July 7, 2021, whereby Parex agreed to solely
fund the initial work plan in exchange for proved reserves along
with development and drill-ready exploration prospects.
Long-Term Capital Allocation Framework
Parex has a long-term capital allocation
framework based off its total funds provided by operations
(“FFO”)(3). As previously disclosed, the Company aims to reinvest
approximately 66% of total FFO, while returning at least 33% of
total FFO to shareholders through a combination of dividends and
share repurchases.
Total FFO(3) |
Target Long-term Capital
Allocation |
2022 Forecast(Unchanged) |
2023 Guidance(New) |
Capital Reinvestment |
~66% |
~64% |
~66% |
Return of Capital (Dividends & Share Repurchases) |
≥33% |
~36% |
≥33% |
2023 Corporate Guidance
In 2023, Parex plans to continue adhering to its
capital allocation framework, which provides sufficient
reinvestment dollars for sustainable operations and to execute on
step-change growth opportunities, as well as the return of capital
to continue bolstering shareholder returns.
Category |
2022 Forecast(Unchanged) |
2023 Guidance(New) |
Brent Crude Average Price ($/bbl) |
$100 |
$80 |
Production Average (boe/d) |
52,000-53,000 |
57,000-63,000 |
Capital Expenditures ($ millions)(4) |
$525-575 |
$425-475 |
Funds Flow Provided by Operations ($ millions)(5) |
$855-870 |
$645-715 |
Free Funds Flow ($ millions; midpoint)(4) |
$310 |
$230 |
2023 Capital Expenditure Breakdown(4)
Category |
Midpoint Guidance($MM) |
Midpoint Guidance(%) |
Development Activity |
$270 |
60% |
Development Facilities |
$90 |
20% |
Big ‘E’ Exploration, including Seismic Activity |
$45 |
10% |
Carry Capital(6) |
$45 |
10% |
Total Capital Expenditures |
$450 |
100% |
2023 Activity Overview
Development
- Northern
Llanos – Arauca (50% W.I.): The first well of a multi-well program
is expected to spud in the first half of 2023; first well will be
drilled in a discovered field and the second will be an appraisal
well; pre-investing in infrastructure and building facility
capacity for approximately 40,000 bbl/d.
- Northern
Llanos – Capachos (50% W.I.): Two wells are expected to be drilled:
one injector well to cycle associated gas and maximize liquids
production and one near-field exploration well; beginning a
facility expansion to increase fluid handling and allow for future
production growth.
- Southern
Llanos – LLA-26 and LLA-81 (100% W.I.): Following the drilling
successes at LLA-32 and LLA-40, the Company is executing
short-cycle opportunistic production adds at LLA-26 (timing shifted
to predominantly 2023) and LLA-81 (newly identified area to
exploit), representing some of the most attractive paybacks in
Parex’ portfolio.
- Southern
Llanos – Cabrestero (100% W.I.): 13-15 wells to continue follow-up
infill drilling and full waterflood implementation, plus
infrastructure investments to continue optimizing operations and
maximize reserves recovery.
- LLA-34
(55% W.I.): 35-40 gross wells, plus infrastructure and facilities
to replicate Cabrestero success; optimizing operations and
expansion of waterflood.
Big ‘E’ – Parex’ Exploration Targets that have
Transformational Properties for the Company
- Northern
Llanos – Arauca (50% W.I.): The Arauca-8 well is a multi-zone,
high-impact exploration prospect that is targeting light crude
oil.
- Magdalena
– VIM-43 (100% W.I.): The Chirimoya well is in an area where there
are stacked reservoirs, which highly increases the chance of
success of a gas and condensate discovery; this prospect is one of
the most potentially impactful in the Parex gas exploration
portfolio.
- Llanos
Foothills – LLA-122 (50% W.I.): Arantes is the first well within
the Ecopetrol memorandum of understanding coverage area, targeting
gas and condensate in an area where historical pool sizes are
significant and the wells can be extremely prolific; this prospect
is the first one to be drilled by Parex within the high-potential
Foothills trend(7).
2023 Netback Sensitivity Estimates
The below netback sensitivity estimates are
based on the Company’s current interpretation of the 2023 Colombia
tax reform and the expected tax position of the Company.
Brent Crude Price ($/bbl) |
$60 |
$70 |
$80 |
$90 |
$100 |
Brent/Vasconia Crude Differential ($/bbl) |
$4 |
$4 |
$4 |
$4 |
$4 |
Effective Tax Rate Estimate (%)(8) |
21% |
27% |
32% |
38% |
39% |
FFO Netback ($/boe)(9) |
$25 |
$28 |
$31 |
$32 |
$36 |
Colombian Government Tax Reform Update
In November 2022, the Colombian Congress
approved a tax reform that increases costs on oil and gas
producers:
-
Establishment of an income surtax of up to 15% linked to the
historical Brent oil price; and
- Prevents
the deduction of base royalties paid to the Colombian government
from the income tax calculation.
This new tax provision is expected to go into
effect in January 2023 and does not affect current tax bases or the
tax rate for fiscal year 2022.
Compared to 2022 forecast values, the Company’s
interpretation, and forecasts of the tax reform impact on its
effective tax rate for 2023 are as follows:
Brent Crude Price ($/bbl) |
$60 |
$70 |
$80 |
$90 |
$100 |
2022 Effective Tax Rate Estimate (%)(8) |
18% |
21% |
22% |
23% |
24% |
2023 Effective Tax Rate Estimate (%)(8) |
21% |
27% |
32% |
38% |
39% |
Variance (%) |
3% |
6% |
10% |
15% |
15% |
Capital Flexibility for Lower Commodity Price
Scenarios
Management has proactively included flexibility
in the Company’s 2023 capital expenditure program. In the event of
a lower price cycle, where the oil price is sustained at lower than
approximately $60/bbl Brent, the Company can reduce capital by up
to $100 million to align with its long-term capital allocation
framework.
In the event of higher oil prices, Parex will
continue to demonstrate capital discipline and maintain its capital
program as presented, in the absence of any significant discoveries
that warrant additional capital deployment.
Three-Year Outlook
To highlight Parex’s forecast declining capital
expenditure profile, portfolio growth, and FFF potential, the
Company has provided an outlook through 2025 in the form of a
three-year base development plan. Assuming a commodity price
environment of approximately $80/bbl Brent oil price and forecast
total capital expenditures within a range of $325 to $450 million
per year, the Company is projected to generate cumulative FFF of
approximately $1 billion or C$1.35 billion at current foreign
exchange rates. Under this scenario, capital reinvestment adheres
to the targeted long-term capital allocation framework, projects
approximately 5% per annum average production growth, and increases
return of capital to shareholders.
The three-year base development plan does not
include upside from the big ‘E’ portfolio. Given Parex is forecast
to allocate 10% to 15% of the annual capital expenditure budget to
actively pursue transformational exploration opportunities, the
plan does not include any associated capital and production from
successful exploration follow-up that may occur over the outlook
period.
Encouraging Well Test Results at
Capachos and VIM-1 Blocks
Northern Llanos: Capachos (50% W.I.) – Andina-1
Well
The Andina-1 well has been on production since
September 2018 and has accumulated 3.5 MMBBL of oil from the
Guadalupe formation. During a well service on the Andina-1 well, a
test was conducted on the previously unproduced Mirador formation
to test the capability of this zone in the Andina field on the
block. The well was tested for 53 hours in mid-November and
produced a total of 8,612 barrels of 39 API oil and 1,277 barrels
of water, for an average daily rate of 3,900 bopd and 578 bwpd at a
measured bottom hole drawdown of 13%. The well was tested at a
maximum rate of 6,838 BOPD during a 4-hour period and bottom hole
pressure recorders indicated a drawdown of 30% at this rate. The
final watercut of the well was 1% and produced water during the
test was associated with wellbore completion fluids. Parex has
completed the Andina-1 well as a Mirador only producer.
Magdalena: VIM-1 (50% W.I.) – La Belleza-2
Well
The La Belleza-2 well was drilled to a total
depth of 14,166 feet, approximately 2.5 kilometres east of the La
Belleza-1 well. The well was drilled as a horizontal well and
encountered 2,000 feet of porous limestone in the Cielo de Oro
(“CDO”) formation then completed for natural flow production. Over
an 8-day period in early November the well produced a total of
15,610 barrels of condensate and 62 MMCF of natural gas,
representing an average test rate of 1,993 barrels of condensate
per day and 8 MMCFD of gas (3,326 boepd). Due to liquid storage
limitations, the true capability of the well could only be tested
over a one-hour period where the well produced 7,530 barrels of
condensate and 38.5 MMCFD of gas (13,953 boepd). Bottom hole
pressure recorders indicated a producing drawdown of 4% during the
average flow period and a maximum drawdown of 10% at the highest
rate tested during the one-hour period. A total of 817 barrels of
formation water and water of condensation was produced during the
test for an average watercut of 5%, consistent with the long-term
trends at the La Belleza-1 well.
Gas Strategy Update
Memorandum of Understanding with Ecopetrol
S.A.
In 2022 Parex signed a memorandum of
understanding (“MOU”) with Ecopetrol S.A. (“Ecopetrol”), Colombia’s
national oil company. The MOU builds on the relationship between
Parex and Ecopetrol, with an area of coverage spanning 13 blocks in
the Llanos Basin, along the high-potential Foothills trend, and
include the general scope of:
- Build on companies’ strengths to
exploit potential synergies in developing gas volume in the
area;
- Maximize the use of existing
infrastructure; and
- Seek joint cooperation in general
when it comes to blocks in the area of coverage.
In H2 2023, the first well that would be under
the MOU area of coverage is expected to be spud at Block LLA-122
(50% W.I.).
Production Update – 2022
- Current production is in excess of
60,000 boe/d; operated production for the Company is over 50% for
the first time since 2015.
- For the period of October 1, 2022
to November 30, 2022, estimated total average production was
approximately 53,200 boe/d; current production increases have
primarily come from operated blocks in Cabrestero, Capachos and
VIM-1.
- 2022 full-year production expected
to average 52,000 to 53,000 boe/d and Q4 2022 production is
expected to average 54,000 to 58,000 boe/d, both in line with prior
guidance.
Northern Llanos – Capachos Block (50% W.I.)
Update
- On November 19, 2022, the Company
proactively shut-in its Capachos Block due to temporary security
concerns; for Parex, the safety of our employees and contractors is
our top priority. As a result of this shut-in, there was an
approximately 5,000 boe/d net production impact from current wells
in addition to delays in bringing new production online.
- On December 4, 2022, following
meetings with national and local authorities, activities resumed at
the Capachos Block and production is actively being brought back
online with full operating rates expected in the coming days.
Capital Markets Day Webcast
We are holding a webcast for investors, analysts
and other interested parties on Tuesday, December 6, 2022, at 1:30
pm EST (11:30 am MST). To participate in the webcast, please see
the following link.
Please note that a Capital Markets Day
presentation has been posted to the Company’s website, which
includes additional detail in relation to the three-year outlook,
including forecast production, FFO, capital expenditures, and
FFF.
About Parex Resources Inc.
Parex is the largest independent oil and gas
company in Colombia, focusing on sustainable, conventional
production. The Company’s corporate headquarters are in Calgary,
Canada, with an operating office in Bogotá, Colombia. Parex is a
member of the S&P/TSX Composite ESG Index and its shares trade
on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol PXT.
For more information, please contact:
Mike KruchtenSenior Vice President, Capital Markets &
Corporate PlanningParex Resources Inc.
403-517-1733investor.relations@parexresources.com
Steven EirichInvestor Relations & Communications
AdvisorParex Resources
Inc.587-293-3286investor.relations@parexresources.com
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION FOR DISSEMINATION
IN THE UNITED STATES
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Advisory
This press release uses various "non-GAAP
financial measures", "non-GAAP ratios", "supplementary financial
measures" and "capital management measures" (as such terms are
defined in National Instrument 52-112 – Non-GAAP and Other
Financial Measures Disclosure). Such measures are not standardized
financial measures under IFRS, and might not be comparable to
similar financial measures disclosed by other issuers. Such
financial measures should not be considered as alternatives to, or
more meaningful than measures determined in accordance with GAAP.
These measures facilitate management’s comparisons to the Company’s
historical operating results in assessing its results and strategic
and operational decision-making and may be used by financial
analysts and others in the oil and natural gas industry to evaluate
the Company’s performance. Further, management believes that such
financial measures are useful supplemental information to analyze
operating performance and provide an indication of the results
generated by the Company's principal business activities.
Please refer to the Company’s Management’s
Discussion and Analysis of the financial condition and results of
operations for the period ended September 30, 2022 dated November
3, 2022 (the “MD&A”), which is available at the Company’s
website at www.parexresources.com and on the Company’s profile on
SEDAR at www.sedar.com for additional information about such
financial measures, including reconciliations to the nearest GAAP
measures, as applicable.
Set forth below is a description of the non-GAAP
financial measures, non-GAAP ratios, supplementary financial
measures and capital management measures used in this press
release.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Capital expenditures, is a
non-GAAP financial measure which the Company uses to describe its
capital costs associated with Oil and Gas expenditures. The measure
considers both Property, Plant and Equipment expenditures and
Exploration and Evaluation asset expenditures which are items in
the Company’s Statement of Cash Flows for the period. In Q3 2022,
the Company changed how it presents exploration and evaluation
expenditures. Amounts have been restated for prior periods to
conform to the current year's presentation.
|
For the three months ended |
For the nine months ended |
|
September 30, |
|
June 30, |
September 30, |
($000s) |
|
2022 |
|
|
2021 |
|
|
2022 |
|
2022 |
Property, plant and equipment expenditures |
$ |
101,253 |
|
$ |
51,637 |
|
$ |
93,346 |
$ |
278,467 |
Exploration and evaluation expenditures |
|
26,100 |
|
|
20,923 |
|
|
32,894 |
|
86,039 |
Total capital expenditures |
$ |
127,353 |
|
$ |
72,560 |
|
$ |
126,240 |
$ |
364,506 |
Free funds flow, is a non-GAAP
measure that is determined by funds flow provided by operations
less capital expenditures. In Q3 2022, the Company changed how it
presents exploration and evaluation expenditures included in total
capital expenditures. Amounts have been restated for prior periods
to conform to the current year's presentation. The Company
considers free funds flow to be a key measure as it demonstrates
Parex’ ability to fund return of capital, such as the NCIB, without
accessing outside funds and is calculated as follows:
|
For the three months ended |
|
For the nine months ended |
|
September 30, |
|
June 30, |
|
September 30, |
($000s) |
|
2022 |
|
|
|
2021 |
|
|
2022 |
|
|
2022 |
Cash provided by operating activities |
$ |
250,643 |
|
|
$ |
118,298 |
|
$ |
244,783 |
|
|
$ |
686,033 |
|
Net change in non-cash working capital |
|
(44,231 |
) |
|
|
34,415 |
|
|
(16,987 |
) |
|
|
(46,337 |
) |
Funds flow provided by operations |
|
206,412 |
|
|
|
152,713 |
|
|
227,796 |
|
|
|
639,696 |
|
Capital
expenditures, excluding corporate acquisitions |
|
127,353 |
|
|
|
72,560 |
|
|
126,240 |
|
|
|
364,506 |
|
Free funds flow |
$ |
79,059 |
|
|
$ |
80,153 |
|
$ |
101,556 |
|
|
$ |
275,190 |
|
Capital Management Measures
Funds flow provided by
operations, is a capital management measure that includes
all cash generated from operating activities and is calculated
before changes in non-cash working capital. The Company considers
funds flow provided by operations to be a key measure as it
demonstrates Parex’ profitability after all cash costs relative to
current commodity prices. A reconciliation from cash provided by
operating activities to funds flow provided by operations is as
follows:
|
For the three months ended |
|
For the nine months ended |
|
September 30, |
|
June 30, |
|
September 30, |
($000s) |
|
2022 |
|
|
|
2021 |
|
|
2022 |
|
|
2022 |
Cash provided by operating activities |
$ |
250,643 |
|
|
$ |
118,298 |
|
$ |
244,783 |
|
|
$ |
686,033 |
|
Net
change in non-cash working capital |
|
(44,231 |
) |
|
|
34,415 |
|
|
(16,987 |
) |
|
|
(46,337 |
) |
Funds flow provided by operations |
$ |
206,412 |
|
|
$ |
152,713 |
|
$ |
227,796 |
|
|
$ |
639,696 |
|
Supplementary Financial
Measures
"Dividends per share" is comprised of dividends
declared as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the
number of shares outstanding at the applicable dividend record
date.Oil & Gas Matters Advisory
The term "Boe" means a barrel of oil equivalent
on the basis of 6 thousand cubic feet ("Mcf") of natural gas to 1
bbl. Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A
boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl is based on an energy
equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner
tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
Given the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as
compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy
equivalency of 6 Mcf: 1Bbl, utilizing a conversion ratio at 6 Mcf:
1 Bbl may be misleading as an indication of value.
This press release contains a number of oil and
gas metrics, including FFO netbacks. These oil and gas metrics have
been prepared by management and do not have standardized meanings
or standard methods of calculation and therefore such measures may
not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies and
should not be used to make comparisons. Such metrics have been
included herein to provide readers with additional measures to
evaluate the Company's performance; however, such measures are not
reliable indicators of the future performance of the Company and
future performance may not compare to the performance in previous
periods and therefore such metrics should not be unduly relied
upon. Management uses these oil and gas metrics for its own
performance measurements and to provide security holders with
measures to compare the Company's operations over time. Readers are
cautioned that the information provided by these metrics, or that
can be derived from the metrics presented in this news release,
should not be relied upon for investment or other purposes.
References in this press release to initial
production test rates, initial "flow" rates, initial flow testing,
and "peak" rates are useful in confirming the presence of
hydrocarbons, however such rates are not determinative of the rates
at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter
and are not indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate
recovery. While encouraging, investors are cautioned not to place
reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for
Parex. Parex has not conducted a pressure transient analysis or
well-test interpretation on the wells referenced in this
presentation. As such, all data should be considered to be
preliminary until such analysis or interpretation has been
done.
Analogous Information
Certain information in this presentation may
constitute "analogous information" as defined in NI 51-101. Such
information includes production estimates, reserves estimates and
other information retrieved from the continuous disclosure record
of certain industry participants from www.sedar.com or other
publicly available sources. Management of Parex believes the
information is relevant as it may help to define the reservoir
characteristics and production profile of lands in which Parex may
hold an interest. Parex is unable to confirm that the analogous
information was prepared by a qualified reserves evaluator or
auditor and is unable to confirm that the analogous information was
prepared in accordance with NI 51-101. Such information is not an
estimate of the production, reserves or resources attributable to
lands held or to be held by Parex and there is no certainty that
the production, reserves or resources data and economic information
for the lands held or to be held by Parex will be similar to the
information presented herein. The reader is cautioned that the data
relied upon by Parex may be in error and/or may not be analogous to
such lands held or to be held by Parex.
Advisory on Forward-Looking
Statements
Certain information regarding Parex set forth in
this press release contains forward-looking statements that involve
substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. The use of
any of the words "plan", "expect", “prospective”, "project",
"intend", "believe", "should", "anticipate", "estimate",
“forecast”, "guidance", “budget” or other similar words, or
statements that certain events or conditions "may" or "will" occur
are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such
statements represent Parex's internal projections, estimates or
beliefs concerning, among other things, future growth, results of
operations, production, future capital and other expenditures
(including the amount, nature and sources of funding thereof),
competitive advantages, plans for and results of drilling activity,
environmental matters, business prospects and opportunities. These
statements are only predictions and actual events or results may
differ materially. Although the Company’s management believes that
the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are
reasonable, it cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity,
performance or achievement since such expectations are inherently
subject to significant business, economic, competitive, political
and social uncertainties and contingencies. Many factors could
cause Parex's actual results to differ materially from those
expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made by, or
on behalf of, Parex.
In particular, forward-looking statements
contained in this press release include, but are not limited to,
statements with respect to the Company's focus, plans, priorities
and strategies, including the Company's ability to drive safe and
sustainable operations, strategically provide transformational
exploration upside and deliver returns of capital; Parex's
anticipated Q4 2022 production and full year 2022 production
guidance; Parex's 2023 production guidance; Parex's three-year
development plan and exploration strategy, including its
anticipated levels of production; Parex's expectations with respect
to its exploration portfolio and the anticipated benefits to be
derived therefrom; Parex's expectations that it will continue to
have robust netbacks that are expected to fully self-fund Parex's
2023 capital plan with capacity for incremental dividends and share
repurchases; Parex's expectations that it will make further
investments in facilities and infrastructure in 2023 and the
anticipated benefits to be derived therefrom; Parex's expectations
that it will grow its production at a highly efficient capital rate
and increase returns to its shareholders; Parex's ability to
increase its recovery factors and grow liquids production while
pursuing longer-term underexplored gas plays; Parex's focus on
material conventional oil and gas prospects and giving investors
asymmetric risk and reward opportunities through a world-class
exploration portfolio; Parex's 2023 budget, including its
anticipated capital expenditures (including the breakdown thereof),
free funds flow, shareholder returns and funds flow provided by
operations; Parex's expectation that it will return 100% of its
growth in free funds flow to its shareholders over the next three
years; Parex's expectations that it will submit a notice of
intention to make an NCIB to the Toronto Stock Exchange for
calendar year 2023; Parex's plans of spudding three big "E" wells
in 2023 and the anticipated benefits to be derived therefrom;
Parex's long-term capital allocation framework guidance, including
its anticipated capital reinvestment and returns of capital;
Parex's development plans for its Northern Llanos – Arauca,
Northern Llanos – Capachos, Southern Llanos – LLA-26 and LLA-81,
Southern Llanos – Cabrestero and LLA-34 locations, including the
number of wells drilled and infrastructure/facility expansion plans
in connection therewith; Parex's 2023 netback sensitivity
estimates; the anticipated impact that the Colombian tax reform
will have on Parex in 2023; the flexibility of the Company's 2023
capital expenditure program and the anticipated benefits to be
derived therefrom; Parex's expectations that it will demonstrate
capital discipline and maintain its capital program in the event of
higher oil prices; Parex's three-year outlook, including its
forecasted total capital expenditures and cumulative free funds
flow and its expectation that it will allocate 10%-15% of its
capital expenditure budget to actively pursue transformation
exploration opportunities; the anticipated benefits to be derived
from Parex's MOU with Ecopetrol and the anticipated timing thereof;
the anticipated timing of when production at the Capachos Block
will return to full operating rates; and the anticipated timing for
Parex's capital markets day webcast.
Although the forward-looking statements
contained in this press release are based upon assumptions which
Management believes to be reasonable, the Company cannot assure
investors that actual results will be consistent with these
forward-looking statements. With respect to forward-looking
statements contained in this press release, Parex has made
assumptions regarding, among other things: current and anticipated
commodity prices and royalty regimes; the impact (and the duration
thereof) that COVID-19 pandemic will have on the demand for crude
oil and natural gas, Parex’s supply chain and Parex’s ability to
produce, transport and sell Parex’s crude oil and natural gas;
availability of skilled labour; timing and amount of capital
expenditures; future exchange rates; the price of oil, including
the anticipated Brent oil price; the impact of increasing
competition; conditions in general economic and financial markets;
availability of drilling and related equipment; effects of
regulation by governmental agencies; receipt of partner, regulatory
and community approvals; royalty rates; future operating costs;
uninterrupted access to areas of Parex's operations and
infrastructure; recoverability of reserves and future production
rates; the status of litigation; timing of drilling and completion
of wells; on-stream timing of production from successful
exploration wells; operational performance of non-operated
producing fields; pipeline capacity; that Parex will have
sufficient cash flow, debt or equity sources or other financial
resources required to fund its capital and operating expenditures
and requirements as needed; that Parex's conduct and results of
operations will be consistent with its expectations; that Parex
will have the ability to develop its oil and gas properties in the
manner currently contemplated; that Parex's evaluation of its
existing portfolio of development and exploration opportunities is
consistent with its expectations; current or, where applicable,
proposed industry conditions, laws and regulations will continue in
effect or as anticipated as described herein; that the estimates of
Parex's production and reserves volumes and the assumptions related
thereto (including commodity prices and development costs) are
accurate in all material respects; that Parex will be able to
obtain contract extensions or fulfill the contractual obligations
required to retain its rights to explore, develop and exploit any
of its undeveloped properties; that Parex's MOU with Ecopetrol will
lead to a completed project; that Parex will have sufficient
financial resources in the future to pay a dividend in the future;
that the Board will declare dividends in the future; that Parex
will have sufficient financial resources to repurchase its shares
in the future and other matters.
Included in this presentation are additional
forward-looking statements which are estimates of Parex's 2023-2025
production growth, total capital expenditures and cumulative free
funds flow. The foregoing 2023-2025 forecasts are based on various
assumptions and are provided for illustration only and are based on
budgets and forecasts that have not been finalized and are subject
to a variety of contingencies including prior years' results. In
addition, the foregoing 2023-2025 forecasts and any capital budgets
underlying such forecasts are management prepared only and have not
been approved by the Board of Directors of Parex. These forecasts
are made as of the date of this presentation and except as required
by applicable securities laws, Parex undertakes no obligation to
update such forecasts.
These forward-looking statements are subject to
numerous risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, the
impact of general economic conditions in Canada and Colombia;
prolonged volatility in commodity prices; industry conditions
including changes in laws and regulations including adoption of new
environmental laws and regulations, and changes in how they are
interpreted and enforced in Canada and Colombia; impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic and the ability of the Company to carry on its
operations as currently contemplated in light of the COVID-19
pandemic; determinations by OPEC and other countries as to
production levels; competition; lack of availability of qualified
personnel; the results of exploration and development drilling and
related activities; obtaining required approvals of regulatory
authorities in Canada and Colombia; risks associated with
negotiating with foreign governments as well as country risk
associated with conducting international activities; volatility in
market prices for oil; fluctuations in foreign exchange or interest
rates; environmental risks; changes in income tax laws or changes
in tax laws and incentive programs relating to the oil industry;
changes to pipeline capacity; ability to access sufficient capital
from internal and external sources; failure of counterparties to
perform under contracts; risk that Brent oil prices are lower than
anticipated; risk that Parex's evaluation of its existing portfolio
of development and exploration opportunities is not consistent with
its expectations; risk that initial test results are not indicative
of future performance; risk that other formations do not contain
the expected oil bearing sands; the risk that Parex's production in
2022 may be less than anticipated; the risk that Parex's 2023
financial and production results may be less favorable than
anticipated; the risk that Parex may not be successful in executing
its three-year development plan and that the benefits derived
therefrom may be less than anticipated; the risk that Parex's may
not have robust netbacks that fully self-fund Parex's 2023 capital
plan; the risk that Parex may not make further investments in
facilities and infrastructure in 2023; the risk that Parex may not
grow its production at a highly efficient capital rate or increase
returns to its shareholders; the risk that Parex may not increase
its recovery factors or grow its liquids production; the risk that
Parex may not provide investors with asymmetric risk and reward
opportunities; the risk that Parex may not return 100% of its
growth in free funds flow to its shareholders over the next three
years; the risk that Parex may not renew its NCIB for the calendar
year 2023; the risk that Parex does not spud three big "E" wells in
2023; the risk that the impact that the Colombian tax reform has on
Parex may be greater than anticipated; the risk that Parex may not
demonstrate capital discipline or maintain its capital program in
the event of higher oil prices; the risk that Parex's financial
results for the years 2023-2025 may be less favorable than
anticipated; the risk that Parex's MOU with Ecopetrol may not lead
to a completed project when anticipated, or at all; the risk that
production at the Capachos Block may not return to full operating
rates when anticipated; the risk that Parex's capital markets day
webcast does not occur when anticipated, or at all; the risk that
Parex does not have sufficient financial resources in the future to
pay a dividend; the risk that the Board does not declare dividends
in the future or that Parex's dividend policy changes; and other
factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not
exhaustive. Additional information on these and other factors that
could affect Parex's operations and financial results are included
in reports on file with Canadian securities regulatory authorities
and may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com).
Management has included the above summary of
assumptions and risks related to forward-looking information
provided in this press release in order to provide shareholders
with a more complete perspective on Parex's current and future
operations and such information may not be appropriate for other
purposes. Parex's actual results, performance or achievement could
differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these
forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurance can be
given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking
statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do, what
benefits Parex will derive. These forward-looking statements are
made as of the date of this press release and Parex disclaims any
intent or obligation to update publicly any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events
or results or otherwise, other than as required by applicable
securities laws.
This press release contains a financial outlook,
in particular: Parex's 2023 capital budget, including its
anticipated capital expenditures (including the breakdown thereof),
free funds flow, shareholder returns and funds flow provided by
operations; Parex's expectation that it will return 100% of its
growth in free funds flow to its shareholders over the next three
years; Parex's long-term capital allocation framework guidance,
including its anticipated capital reinvestment and returns of
capital; Parex's 2023 netback sensitivity estimates; the
anticipated impact that the Colombian tax reform will have on Parex
in 2023; and Parex's three-year outlook, including its forecasted
total capital expenditures and cumulative free funds flow and its
expectation that it will allocate 10%-15% of its capital
expenditure budget to actively pursue transformation exploration
opportunities. Such financial information has been prepared by
management to provide an outlook of the Company's financial results
and activities and may not be appropriate for other purposes. This
information has been prepared based on a number of assumptions
including the assumptions discussed in this press release. The
actual results of operations of the Company and the resulting
financial results may vary from the amounts set forth herein, and
such variations may be material. The Company and management believe
that the financial outlook has been prepared on a reasonable basis,
reflecting management’s best estimates and judgments. The financial
outlook contained in this press release was made as of the date of
this press release and Parex disclaims any intent or obligation to
update publicly the press release, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant
to applicable law.
Distribution Advisory
The proposed aggregate dividend payment of
approximately US$80 million in 2023 remains subject to the approval
of the Board of Directors of Parex and the declaration of such
dividend is subject to a number of other assumptions and
contingencies, including commodity prices. The Company's future
shareholder distributions, including but not limited to the payment
of dividends and the acquisition by the Company of its shares
pursuant to a normal course issuer bid, if any, and the level
thereof is uncertain. Any decision to pay further dividends on the
common shares (including the actual amount, the declaration date,
the record date and the payment date in connection therewith and
any special dividends) or acquire shares of the Company will be
subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors of Parex and
may depend on a variety of factors, including, without limitation
the Company's business performance, financial condition, financial
requirements, growth plans, expected capital requirements and other
conditions existing at such future time including, without
limitation, contractual restrictions and satisfaction of the
solvency tests imposed on the Company under applicable corporate
law. Any purchases of common shares pursuant to an NCIB is subject
to all required regulatory approvals. There can be no assurance
that the Company will pay dividends or repurchase any shares of the
Company in the future. The payment of dividends to shareholders is
not assured or guaranteed and dividends may be reduced or suspended
entirely. In addition to the foregoing, the Company’s ability to
pay dividends or acquire shares now or in the future may be limited
by covenants contained in the agreements governing any indebtedness
that the Company has incurred or may incur in the future, including
the terms of the credit facilities.
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