TSX-V: ORC.A, ORC.B
TORTOLA, British Virgin
Islands, March 17, 2017 /CNW/
- Orca Exploration Group Inc. ("Orca" or "the Company") announces
its independent Reserves Evaluation for the year ended December 31, 2016. All currency amounts are in
United States dollars unless
otherwise stated.
The Company's conventional natural gas reserves as at
December 31, 2016 for the period to
the end of its licence in October
2026 were evaluated by independent petroleum engineering
consultants McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. ("McDaniel")
in accordance with the definitions, standards and procedures
contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGE
Handbook") and National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of
Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101"). The
independent reserves evaluation prepared by McDaniel (the "McDaniel
Report") is dated effective December 31,
2016 and all amounts are stated in United States dollars ("US$") unless otherwise
noted. A reserves committee of the Company reviews the
qualifications and appointment of the independent reserves
evaluator and reviews the procedures for providing information to
the evaluators. Reserves included herein are stated on a company
gross basis unless noted otherwise. All the Company's reserves are
located in Tanzania. Additional
reserves information required under NI 51-101 will be included in
Orca's reports relating to reserves data and other oil and gas
information under NI 51-101, which will be filed prior to
April 29, 2017 on its profile on
SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
For the year ended December 31,
2016 Orca's:
- Additional Gas Production in 2016 was 16.3 Bcf, equivalent to
44.5 MMcf/day down 6% from 2015 due primarily to decreased power
related sales related to reduced nominations by TANESCO.
- Proved plus probable reserves ("2P") decreased 3% to 405 Bcf
from 417 Bcf last year. The negative impact of production was
partially offset by 5.3 Bcf positive revision related to higher
expected future growth in gas demand.
- Total proved reserves ("1P") decreased 6% to 347 Bcf from 368
Bcf last year. A negative revision related to lower growth
expectations of production of proved reserves resulted in the net
decrease being greater than the impact of production.
The following tables outline the Company's conventional natural
gas reserves as at December 31, 2016
and the net present value of future net revenue attributable to
such reserves as evaluated in the McDaniel Report utilising
forecast price and cost assumptions to the end of the licence
period in October 2026.
|
Company Gross
Reserves
|
|
Company Net
Reserves
|
|
Light and
Medium
Crude Oil
|
|
Natural Gas
Liquids
|
|
Conventional
Natural
Gas
|
|
Light and
Medium
Crude Oil
|
|
Natural Gas
Liquids
|
|
Conventional
Natural
Gas
|
|
Mbbl
|
|
Mbbl
|
|
MMcf
|
|
Mbbl
|
|
Mbbl
|
|
MMcf
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proved
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed
Producing
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
343,564
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
209,611
|
|
Developed
Non‑Producing
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
3,821
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
2,178
|
|
Undeveloped
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
Total
Proved
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
347,385
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
211,789
|
Probable
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
57,935
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
47,358
|
Total Proved plus
Probable
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
405,320
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
259,147
|
|
|
Net present value of
future net revenues
After Future Income
Tax Expenses Discounted at
|
|
Unit Value
Before Tax at
10%
|
|
|
0%
|
|
5%
|
|
10%
|
|
15%
|
|
20%
|
|
$/Mcf
|
(US$'000)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Proved
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developing
Producing
|
|
540,684
|
|
404,628
|
|
312,053
|
|
247,337
|
|
200,953
|
|
1.49
|
Developed
Non-Producing
|
|
3,989
|
|
2,171
|
|
1,011
|
|
61
|
|
(229)
|
|
0.46
|
Undeveloped
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
-
|
Total
Proved
|
|
544,673
|
|
406,799
|
|
313,065
|
|
247,598
|
|
200,724
|
|
1.48
|
Probable
|
|
84,169
|
|
63,680
|
|
49,853
|
|
40,268
|
|
33,454
|
|
1.05
|
Total Proved plus
Probable
|
|
628,841
|
|
470,479
|
|
362,918
|
|
287,865
|
|
234,177
|
|
1.40
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Notes:
|
|
|
1.
|
During the third
quarter of 2015, The Petroleum Act, 2015, (the "Act") was passed
into law by Presidential decree. The Act repeals earlier
legislation, provides a regulatory framework over upstream,
mid-stream and downstream gas activity, and as well consolidates
and puts in place a single, effective and comprehensive legal
framework for regulating the oil and gas industry in the country.
The Act also provides for the creation of an upstream regulator,
the Petroleum Upstream Regulatory (PURA). The mid and downstream
petroleum as well as gas activities are proposed to be regulated by
the current authority, the Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory
Authority (EWURA). The Act also confers upon on the Tanzanian
Petroleum Development Corporation ("TPDC"), the status of the
National Oil Company, mandated with the task of managing the
country's commercial interest in the petroleum operations as well
as mid and downstream natural gas activities. The Act vests TPDC
with exclusive rights in the entire petroleum upstream value chain
and the natural gas mid and downstream value chain. However, the
exclusive rights of TPDC do not extend to mid and downstream
petroleum supply operations. The Company is uncertain
regarding the potential impact on its business in Tanzania. The Act
does provide grandfathering provisions upholding the rights of the
Company under the PSA as it was signed prior to the passing of the
Act. However, it is still unclear how the provisions of the Act
will be interpreted and implemented regarding upstream and
downstream activities.
|
2.
|
On October 7, 2016,
the Government of Tanzania issued the Petroleum (Natural Gas
Pricing) Regulation made under Sections 165 and 258 (I) of the Act.
Article 260 (3) preserves the Company's pre-existing right with
TPDC to market and sell Additional Gas together or independently on
terms and conditions (including prices) negotiated with third party
natural gas customers. The impact of the Natural Gas Pricing
Regulation cannot be determined at this time.
|
McDaniel employed the following gas sales, pricing and inflation
rate assumptions as of December 31,
2016 in estimating the Company's reserves data using
forecast prices and costs. The Company received an average
conventional natural gas price of US$4.73/Mcf in 2016.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Songo Songo gas
prices
|
|
Year
|
Brent
crude(1)
US$/bbl
|
Proved
US$/Mcf
|
Proved plus
probable
US$/Mcf
|
Annual
inflation
%
|
2017
|
56.00
|
4.33
|
4.38
|
2
|
2018
|
59.70
|
4.21
|
4.19
|
2
|
2019
|
63.40
|
4.21
|
4.29
|
2
|
2020
|
70.10
|
4.29
|
4.35
|
2
|
2021
|
76.90
|
4.41
|
4.44
|
2
|
2022
|
78.40
|
4.50
|
4.55
|
2
|
2023
|
79.90
|
4.60
|
4.70
|
2
|
2024
|
81.50
|
4.65
|
4.76
|
2
|
2025
|
83.20
|
4.67
|
4.78
|
2
|
2026
|
84.90
|
4.77
|
4.88
|
2
|
|
Note:
|
1. Brent price forecast based on the
McDaniel January 1, 2017 price forecast.
|
The price of gas for the Industrial sector is based on a formula
related to discounts to heavy fuel oil prices and includes caps and
floors. This has been reflected in the above
pricing.
Orca Exploration Group Inc.
Orca Exploration Group Inc. is an international public company
engaged in natural gas exploration, development and supply in
Tanzania through the wholly-owned
subsidiary PanAfrican Energy Tanzania Limited. Orca trades on the
TSX Venture Exchange under the trading symbols ORC.B and ORC.A.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Service
Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX
Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or
accuracy of this release.
Forward-Looking Information: This news release
contains forward-looking statements or information (collectively,
"forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable
securities legislation. More particularly, this news release
contains, without limitation, forward-looking statements pertaining
to the following: the impact of the Act and the Natural Gas Pricing
Regulation on the Company's business in Tanzania; and expectations regarding how the
provisions of the Act will be interpreted and implemented regarding
upstream and downstream activities. In addition, statements
relating to "reserves" are by their nature forward-looking
statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on
certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can
be profitably produced in the future. The recovery and reserve
estimates of the Company's reserves provided herein are estimates
only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be
recovered. As a consequence, actual results may differ materially
from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Although
management believes that the expectations reflected in the
forward-looking statements are reasonable, it cannot guarantee
future results, levels of activity, performance or achievement
since such expectations are inherently subject to significant
business, economic, operational, competitive, political and social
uncertainties and contingencies.
These forward-looking statements involve substantial known and
unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond the
Company's control, and many factors could cause the Company's
actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied
in any forward-looking statements made by the Company. In addition
there are risks and uncertainties associated with oil and gas
operations, therefore the Company's actual results, performance or
achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or
implied by, any forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no
assurances can be given that any of the events anticipated by such
forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of
them do so, what benefits the Company will derive therefrom.
Such forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions
made by the Company in light of its experience and perception of
historical trends, current conditions and expected future
developments, as well as other factors the Company believes are
appropriate in the circumstances, including, but not limited to,
that the Tanzania National Natural Gas Infrastructure Project
("NNGIP") is completed; the TPDC, the MEM and the Company are
able to agree on commercial terms for future incremental gas sales
and the Company can expand Songo
Songo development beyond the existing Songas infrastructure
and supply gas to the NNGIP; that there will continue to be no
restrictions on the movement of cash from Mauritius or Tanzania; that the Company will have
sufficient cash flow, debt or equity sources or other financial
resources required to fund its capital and operating expenditures
and requirements as needed; that the Company will have adequate
funding to continue operations; that the Company will successfully
negotiate agreements; receipt of required regulatory approvals; the
ability of the Company to increase production at a consistent rate;
infrastructure capacity; commodity prices will not further
deteriorate significantly; the ability of the Company to obtain
equipment and services in a timely manner to carry out exploration,
development and exploitation activities; future capital
expenditures; availability of skilled labour; timing and amount of
capital expenditures; uninterrupted access to infrastructure; the
impact of increasing competition; conditions in general economic
and financial markets; effects of regulation by governmental
agencies; that the Company's appeal of various tax assessments will
be successful; that the enactment of the Act in Tanzania will not impair the Company's rights
under the PSA to develop and market natural gas in Tanzania; current or, where applicable,
proposed industry conditions, laws and regulations will continue in
effect or as anticipated as described herein; and other
matters.
The forward-looking statements contained in this news release
are made as of the date hereof and the Company undertakes no
obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking
statements or information, whether as a result of new information,
future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable
securities laws.
OIL AND GAS ADVISORY: The Company's conventional
natural gas reserves as at December 31,
2016 and 2015 disclosed herein were evaluated by McDaniel in
accordance with the definitions, standards and procedures contained
in the COGE Handbook and NI 51-101. The independent reserves
evaluations prepared by McDaniel had an effective date of
December 31, 2016 and 31 December 2015, as applicable.
This press release contains estimates of the net present value
of Orca's future net revenue from the Company's reserves. The net
present value of future net revenue attributable to the Company's
reserves is stated without provision for interest costs and out of
country general and corporate administrative costs, but after
providing for estimated royalties, production costs, development
costs, other income, future capital expenditures, and well
abandonment costs for only those wells assigned reserves by
McDaniel. It should not be assumed that the undiscounted or
discounted net present value of future net revenue attributable to
the Company's reserves estimated by McDaniel represent the fair
market value of those reserves. Such amounts do not represent
the fair market value of the Company's reserves. The recovery
and reserve estimates of the Company's conventional natural gas
reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no
guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered.
Actual reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates
provided herein.
In this press release "Company Gross Reserves" are the total of
the Company's working and/or royalty interest share after TPDC
back-in and before deduction of royalties owned by others. It
represents the Company's percentage working interest in the
property gross reserves, and "Company Net Reserves" are the total
of the Company's working and/or royalty interest share after
deducting the amounts attributable to royalties and Profit Gas
owned by others, and represent the Company's share of total Cost
Gas and Profit Gas.
"BOEs" may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A
BOE conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to
one barrel of oil equivalent (6 Mcf: 1 Bbl) is based on an energy
equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner
tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As
the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the
current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly
different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a
conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of
value.
SOURCE Orca Exploration Group Inc.