NAIROBI--Kenya's oil exploration and production sector needs
more than $16 billion of investments over the next three years
according to a report by pan-African bank, Ecobank, released last
week.
Ecobank said Kenya is expected to join the league of oil
producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa by 2017, despite funding
constraints, rising insecurity and a pending new energy law.
U.K.-listed Tullow Oil (TLW.LN) and its partner Australia's
Africa Oil Corp. (AOIFF) are expected to submit a field development
plan by 2015, following their first oil discovery two years ago in
Turkana county, northern Kenya. The two oil companies estimate that
their blocks possess between 600 million and 1 billion barrels of
oil and could produce between 100,000 and 120,000 barrels of crude
oil a day starting in 2017, if the government approves their field
development plan by fourth-quarter 2015, the report said.
Other firms such as U.S. Independent Anadarko Petroleum
Corporation, Canadian explorer Rift Energy and U.K. Independent
Tower Resources are among several other oil companies also looking
to acquire new seismic data and drill exploration wells in
Kenya.
"Inability to source necessary funding is however likely to
result in oil companies having to relinquish some portion of their
oil blocks due to inability to meet seismic and drilling
commitments," the report said.
"More importantly, it could delay the start-up of oil production
by another one, or two years."
Tullow Oil risks being over-extended on borrowings if it takes
on additional debt to develop its Kenya oilfields. However, it is
likely to attract valuations as high as $452 million for a planned
farm-out of a 10%-15 % stake in its Lokichar basin blocks.
Kenya is likely to pass a revised petroleum law in October 2014
that is expected to provide the framework for oil revenue
management and could increase the government's take from oil
operations and enforce more local content initiatives.
The report said that communities in the oil discovery areas have
intensified their demands for involvement in the industry, which
could result in community development levies being included in the
new bill.
Rising insecurity is also a major concern in Kenya for oil
investors. "Recent attacks by Al-Shabaab could dampen investor
interest," the report said, and offshore exploration could also be
affected by an existing maritime border dispute between Kenya and
Somalia.
"These dynamics make the next 18 months critical in the
development of the Kenyan upstream sector," the report said. Kenya
is likely to play a key role in the emerging East Africa oil and
gas industry with a new export terminal at Lamu and a crude oil
pipeline enabling oil exports to Asia, it added.
Write to George Mwangi at realtimedesklondon@dowjones.com
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