Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAI) Quote

Along....bite my chopstick.

It's time for you to go on a vacation to your homeland and leave Arnold home to fix your finances. 

BRILLIANT RICK. Here’s the low down from X.com

r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit
•
11 hr. ago
Airpower343

FNMA Deep Dive: Bear, Base & Bull Case Valuation Analysis Post-Conservatorship

TL;DR:

Bear Case: $15-20/share
Base Case: $35-40/share
Bull Case: $45-55/share All cases assume full warrant dilution.
CORE METRICS (2024):

Q1-Q3 Net Income: $12.8B
Annualized Est: $17.07B
Current Shares: 1.16B
Post-Warrant Shares: 5.79B
Current Trading: ~$4/share
SHARE STRUCTURE:

Current Outstanding: 1.16B
Treasury Warrants (79.9%): 4.63B
Total Diluted: 5.79B
BEAR CASE ($17.50):

Math:
- Annualized Earnings: $17.07B
- Additional Dilution: 15% (capital raise)
- Total Shares: 6.66B (5.79B × 1.15)
- EPS: $2.56 ($17.07B ÷ 6.66B)
- P/E Multiple: 7x (below financial sector average)
- Share Price: $17.92
Assumptions:

Maximum dilution from capital raises
Below-average P/E due to:

Heavy regulation
Strict utility model
Limited growth
Conservative earnings multiple
BASE CASE ($35.40):

Math:
- Annualized Earnings: $17.07B
- Diluted Shares: 5.79B (warrant conversion only)
- EPS: $2.95 ($17.07B ÷ 5.79B)
- P/E Multiple: 12x (financial sector average)
- Share Price: $35.40
Assumptions:

Standard warrant dilution
Industry-average P/E
Utility-like stability
Moderate growth potential
BULL CASE ($52.50):

Math:
- Annualized Earnings: $17.07B
- Potential Earnings Growth: 15% ($19.63B)
- Diluted Shares: 5.79B
- EPS: $3.39 ($19.63B ÷ 5.79B)
- P/E Multiple: 15x (premium financial multiple)
- Share Price: $50.85
Assumptions:

Earnings growth from:

Housing market strength
Market share expansion
Operational efficiency
Premium P/E reflecting:

Market dominance
Government relationship
Essential market role
CATALYSTS:

Trump Administration Release
Capital Rule Changes
Warrant Resolution
Dividend Reinstatement
Market Re-rating
RISKS:

Implementation Delays
Additional Dilution
Regulatory Changes
Market Conditions
Political Uncertainty
COMPARABLE MULTIPLES:

Large Banks: 8-12x P/E
Insurance: 10-14x P/E
Financial Services: 12-15x P/E
Utilities: 15-18x P/E
KEY CONSIDERATIONS:

Bull Case Drivers:

Strong housing market
Reduced regulation under Trump
Market dominance
Essential role in mortgage market
Operational improvements
Dividend potential
Bear Case Risks:

Maximum dilution
Strict utility model
Heavy regulation
Limited growth
Political uncertainty
Market competition
Base Case Balance:

Standard dilution
Moderate regulation
Stable earnings
Industry average multiples
Utility-like characteristics
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Current price ($4) reflects conservatorship
Significant upside in all scenarios
Value drivers:

Earnings power
Multiple expansion
Dilution impact
Regulatory framework
Market conditions
TIMELINE CONSIDERATIONS:

Initial moves likely Q1-Q2 2025
Full implementation 2025-2026
Treasury selldown 2026+
Value realization stages
INVESTMENT STRATEGY:

Position sizing based on risk tolerance
Consider phased entry
Monitor implementation milestones
Watch regulatory developments
Track earnings progression
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own DD. Positions: Long FNMA and FNMAS.

Working for me OK

Huh, worked for me.
Must work only for optimists.... :)

Yeah, but Aircase may live in fantasy land. Wishful, but didn't post any facts

Check out this analysis.  Wow.  Holy crap.  This guy is on fire.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit/s/DSO3Wwa24X

Bad link

https://x.com/ricknagra/status/1876074015389020414?s=46&t=xLP2LlWgJrEMUZZ7Fum-nA

(starting from the 20th ?)

From Monday, January 20, 2025
Added 100 days
Result: Wednesday, April 30, 2025
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadded.html

Not quite sure this time Along4zride. May be our time to actually make some meaningful money. As always, just never know.

Nah, Get Arnold back please.
This will happen quickly, SM stalled for 4 years and he wanted to fire Watt cause he didnt do anything for several years. This is the last, most greedy thing left from the crisis. As stated, and not well known, the plan WILL be together with the first 100 days in office. Trump wont let this linger. SM said it was in his top 10 things to do, was 1 and 2 priority bringing his F rated wife actress to the printing and engraving to hang out with 100 dollar sheets, cant remember if he brought her to Fed Reserve gold depository where the only thing the slippery snake said was that the "gold is safe". duh we all knew this, was there 1000 tons. 2, 3, 4, or anything near 8k tons or did they sell most of it in the crisis. Germany repatriated 5 tons of their gold back then, they didnt get a single bar that matched serial numbers of the bars they put in there. its a mess. Here is the list of best investments for 2025
Housing (via GSEs)
Gold (its going 5 to 10x)
Utility Tokens (my fav is XRP, its gonna move trillions across the world within a year)

Good info, thanks my Navy Brother! Seriously!

Warren says to be greedy when others are fearful.

Tough week ahead for hopeful investor as it becomes glaringly apparent carnival type slide show will be full of (FNMA) presumptions, speculation and conjecture like his failed pitch for Pershing Squares IPO that was crumbled by investor doubts.

Thoughts on tomorrow? Do we consolidate and go down to about 4:00 or do we continue North? With over 50 million traded Friday I feel we continue North 5:50......but what do I know???

Went and looked at the highest valued stocks on the OTC I saw some as high as $2000 so clearly it's not a must to be uplisted just to be off the OTC they literally could take their time. 

Wasn’t he one of the main leaders involved creating a release from conservatorship during the first Trump administration? Is it not logical to think that during the 2nd Trump administration that they would like to continue the work they were doing during the first term, with a few slight adjustments of course?
Again one of my questions in my first post was referring to ‘dilution of common shares’.
I’m looking forward to asking Bill Ackman questions on this topic during his Q&A on January 16th.

You need to re-tighten those coil so we surpass $7 by Friday LOL !!!

You're new here. Meh. 

Tremble with Fear for tomorrow's
trading, Mr. Krab; Tremble with Fear

Rick , do you have a kick starter on that whale horn??

Light took a guess where Carney was by a pic he posted, CarneyClown is on Jekyll island, his clue was a pic of drift wood on the beach, it was as cryptic and lacking in background, its something only Carney could think we all have time to figure out 10,000 places on earth just to see where he is. what a megalomaniac, both of them. They read each others stuff and create their illusions on GSEs. Maybe Carney will stay there until the next banking system is talked over. issue is it aint happening here, it will be in Brazil, and he aint invited. couple nut jobs.

Let it trade on a real exchange so all the players sitting cn sideline can come and decide the price. There will be analysts from all over on this case. My invetment advisor claims the price will be over 90.
https://sinvestsllc.com/fannie-mae-fnma-price-target-90/

Too funny. The sock account. Here's a matching song to go with his new account. FNMA
.

Eclipse defender created 2 hours ago huh? Doesn’t sound like SOCK account at all...

Calabria has nothing to do with this now and the largest common shareholder does....

We did ALL the BUY recommendations and Barron is aimed at long-term investors.
Strange, why his the weazle Joe Light not posting on Bloomberg too ?

Based on my patent pending proprietary super secret super flux super magnetic algorithm we will surpass $5 tomorrow.

At times you come out with the most unmeaningful remarks, that makes no sense !!!

Thanks Commander.

https://x.com/GuidoPerei/status/1876045697566605569

To what did Ackman say "good idea"? Because you want to ask why he used the word IPO?

Hopefully we baked in over the weekend...🫡🙏🏾

Restoration of Shareholder Rights -

Release from Conservatorship (presumably) restores all of our shareholder rights - dilution or not - so any ensuing litigation regarding the government confiscating 79.9% of the value of our shares should be able to proceed. I for one would love to see the complete story of this fraud of a Conservatorship be told in Court.

Reading Mark Calabria old view is as good as reading the declaration of independence..

Read the last 10 sec of the video. Mark Calabria stating that “the Shareholders will be ‘heavily’ diluted when we raise capital.”
Question, how is this calculated and ultimately how much?
For example let’s say that FNMA is trading at $4.47/share the day before it leaves Conservatorship, how much would we expect this ‘common’ share be worth?
Or is Bill Ackhman figuring in the dilution calculation stating his $34/share target rate? I’d love for him to explain how he calculates the dilution part.

For the record I’m still Bullish.

Be Very Afraid of What Might Happen
Tomrrow - Now is Not The Time for
Enthusiasm - It's Time for FEAR

the bullish move Should make everyone more resentful and suspicious of the current administration
way to go Brandon!!

It depends on what he blurts out. I think he says something cool and the price goes to $12. Based on that, Scott Bessent is supposed to say on January 21, sorry guys, but you only get $2. Hard to explain.

Scott and Bill are in the same boat. Bessent knows the Trump supporters who made him president with many millions. Ackman will push and raise the price to a level where the gap to their supposed target of $34 will look smaller. Just think, the price would be at $1 and the Trump admin gives the shareholders $34 Would look like a huge gift.
Or think the price would be $12 before the handover and we get $34. Which would be less than three times as much.

got a reply from Bill Ackman on X ...

Not me.

Who believes that the Biden administration will make another stupid move to the detriment of shareholders before January 20?

Zero. How they handle the SPS is the only question for me. Delete SPS, define commons at $300 value and of that 79.9% government and 20.1% shareholders.

Rumor- Brandon sold all warrants to Soros for $15B

Yes it's called a hedge fund for a reason. I said before don't trust ackman. 10 years ago he had the same presentation dead money for a decade unless he hedged.

I will definitely fight the exercise of warrants.

No you will not.

Not necessarily, Ackman says that it will take all of 2025 then Freddie will be real close.

FANNIE & FREDDIE
Begin tomorrow with
FEAR and TREMBLING

Joe Light 🤣 They are all coming out now.  Douch nozzle Carney will be next.