DaJester
1 hour ago
Since the validity of an argument is an opinion, yes I get to define "skin in the game" in regards to that opinion.
If only you would state it as if it was your opinion, instead of an imperative, you wouldn't be seen as such a jerk. "File your own lawsuit or shut up" doesn't have the same ring as "My opinion is that your argument is not valid, or it has holes in it, and let me explain why...."
All I see is a list of weak excuses.
Of course that's what you see!! LOL! 🤣 The sarcasm is completely wasted on you! You really need to take a course on how to hold a conversation. There's a course on Udemy you should look into called: How To Build An Effective Conversation (Learn To Become Conversation Expert and have Positive Mindset) - It's FREE!
The "waste of time" thing is pure bullshit. If you spent half the time crafting a lawsuit (filed on contingency, of course) that you did arguing with me on here, you could have filed 3 or 4 of them by now.
But where is the fun in that??? I'd rather argue with the wannabe lawyer on IHUB than actual lawyers. Again, my argumentative stance is done on purpose to give you a taste of your own tactics. What's your excuse?
Wrong again. Whether or not your pet legal theory has merit is something for courts to decide, not you or I.
How is this wrong? People are posting theories of how this entire fiasco is going to play out. Nobody knows for sure. You have your "likely paths," I have mine, and other people are all over the place. I don't post here so that a court can decide which theory has the most merit. I sincerely hope that's not what you are doing. No court is reviewing these posts. The posts are for the enjoyment and edification of the readers of IHUB. They do not require any outside activity to have people agree, disagree, build upon, or break down. Heck, even buying shares is an outside activity that isn't necessary. People can claim they buy/sell/hold all the time, but there is no requirement for them to PROVE themselves. Would it help if I just lie to you and tell you I have already filed a lawsuit to protect my 2.85 Trillion Common shares? I'm gonna be RICH biatcches!! 😆
You are once again guilty of putting words in my mouth and then attacking me based on them. It's a bad look for you.
I'm literally quoting you and your auto-signature. If anything is making me look bad it is you - through association. People are going to think I'm getting paid to reply to your posts or something.
Barron4664
1 hour ago
Thanks for the non-confrontational reply. The lawsuit is still partially in my head. You know if it wasn't for you and I discussing this mundane topic, just about no one on this board would know about the accounting standard for consolidation. I think it is important for people to be educated in what the laws, regs, and standards actually say. I appreciate most of your position (not the silly banter about your signature page). It is a skeptical and realistic point of view. The Gov will do what it wants, when it wants and has unlimited resorces to accomplish it. But it doesnt change the fact that alot of proposed scenarios run contrary to the plain language of the statutes. Of couse just words in the ether, until served. Be well!
navycmdr
2 hours ago
Fannie and Freddie are having a moment
After years of little interest, the mortgage giants are suddenly Wall Street darlings
Jeff Bond- January 13, 2025
https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/fannie-and-freddie-are-having-a-moment/
Government-Sponsored Enterprises, Mortgage Banking, Regulations and Compliance
If you thought the biggest news in the stock market over the past two months was artificial intelligence behemoth Nvidia or Elon Musk’s Tesla, you’d be wrong. The hottest shares on Wall Street are from two companies with stodgy names such as the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, which are better known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The U.S. Congress chartered the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to buy and guarantee mortgages issued through lenders in the secondary mortgage market. These titans of the industry combine individual mortgages into tradable mortgage-backed securities, allowing for a constant flow of capital. According to the National Association of Realtors, the two support around 70% of U.S. mortgages.
In recent years, stock traders have shown little interest in the shares of these company…until now. Between Nov. 1 and Jan. 13, Fannie Mae’s share value is up more than 300%. From Nov. 4 to Jan. 13, the price of Freddie Mac shares has jumped more than 350%. For the year, Fannie Mae is up about 400% and Freddie Mac is up an amazing 500%.
Advertisement
The reasons for these stock manias are indications that the Trump administration will push to privatize the two companies, which have proven quite profitable. During the 2008 financial crisis, the federal government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack and invested about $191.5 billion to stabilize them. In return, the Treasury acquired senior preferred shares in both entities. According to ProPublica, the companies have not repaid any principal, but they have paid dividends worth $301 billion as of 2022.
Trump tried unsuccessfully to privatize the two mortgage giants during his first term as president. Trump’s Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin allowed the entities to retain earning and rebuild capital reserves.
Investors are now betting Trump’s second administration succeed, and in the process, unlock a profit center for shareholders. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees the two companies, has introduced new capital requirements which may be setting the stage for their potential exit from conservatorship.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who founded Pershing Square Capital Management, and is believed to be a major shareholder in Fannie and Freddie, has been stoking interest in the two stocks by discussing how the Trump administration will privatize the two companies. He estimates that privatizing could earn the federal government $300 billion in profits and remove $8 trillion in liabilities from its balance sheet.
“Trump likes big deals, and this would be the biggest deal in history,” Ackman wrote in a post on X about privatizing Fannie and Freddie. “I am confident he will get it done.”
However, it’s unclear what impact privatization would have on homebuyers and if it could have detrimental effects on the housing industry. Those against the move worry that it could drive up mortgage rates when housing affordability issues are already a major problem for the industry. The move also could reduce support for affordable housing and increase market volatility.
navycmdr
3 hours ago
Vijar Kohli on X ...
Pershing Square has owned $FNMA and $FMCC for a decade now. So over the weekend, I wrote a 1,500 word post on Fannie and Freddie for .@SeekingAlpha.
In it, I reviewed Bill's original 111-page investor deck from 2014 and highlighted the risks/rewards. Below are three points summarizing the article:
Deep Value Play: Fannie/Freddie are profitable mortgage giants trading at low prices. Privatization could unlock massive value.
Ackman's Bullish Bet: Ackman's long-term stake and upcoming presentation signal strong upside potential. Set a Reminder for his X Spaces on Thursday.
Privatization Catalyst: A potential new Trump administration increases the odds of Fannie/Freddie going private, a major bullish catalyst.
Disclosure: I plan to buy $FNMA over the week, based on the upcoming events.
kthomp19
3 hours ago
Do you think Jps get a haircut?
And if so, how much do you expect?
If the seniors get converted to commons (which I think has an 85% chance of happening), then maybe. It depends on whether or not Treasury insists on the juniors taking the same haircut as they do, which is what Mnuchin wanted in late 2020. If not, no haircut for the juniors, and if so it would be around 15-20% of par.
If the seniors do get written off then there would be no need for the juniors to take a haircut at all. I would expect either dividends to resume or a conversion to common offer at generous enough terms to get widespread uptake.
Now, if the dividends do end up turning back on then the series with lower dividend rates, such as FNMAP and FMCCM, could trade well below par if the juniors are all priced to a yield above those low rates.
kthomp19
3 hours ago
Guido, you remember that institutional investment company that accumulated quite a bit of jps and common and would report it in their 13F?
As I recall they mostly exited those positions.
What was the name of the investment company? American Capital? KT may know if you don't recall.
Capital Group has various funds that own FnF shares (mostly junior prefs, a bit of common), but the Growth Fund of America (AGTHX) is the main one. Here is a link to their holdings page; it gets updated once a quarter, usually a few weeks after the end of the prior one. I would expect to see their December 31 2024 holdings by next week or the week after.
I have been using that page to track AGTHX's quarterly FnF holdings for several years; I had posted this summary of their holdings a few years ago.
It's worth an update.
AGTHX sold all of its 218M common shares (almost twice what Ackman holds) over the course of the 12 months following the Collins ruling in 2021. They bought about 3.6M FNMA in Q2 2024, but that's a drop in the bucket for them.
AGTHX had added some juniors in the wake of the Collins decision too, though they sold some in the first half of 2023 to dip to about 10% below what they held before the Collins ruling. I will be interested to see their activity in Q4 2024.
kthomp19
3 hours ago
Fully is back. Let’s resume our discussions.
Glad to have you back! You're just in time for all the fireworks.
First of all, I would like to pay tribute to the fact that you are still on board and sharing your knowledge. At the risk of making some users here hate me, you've been the best source I've had regarding the GSEs. Okay, Navi is better than you when it comes to breaking news in a timely manner. And if you want to dream and get a good night's sleep, you're really not the first choice. Oh wait, obi is always number 1 and always will be. And Howard is of course: Howard.
Thank you for the kind words. You have a pretty good memory as to the clientele. I am making an effort to increase the overall sound logic to ad hominem ratio here; sadly my contributions to said ratio are in general massively diluted by others. 😉
I don't think that statement is correct:
CET1 is not in HERA and has nothing to do with statutory capital. CET1 only came up with Calabria's capital rule. Moreover, it is not HERA that defines the statutory capital requirements, but the Safety And Soundness Act.
You're right that HERA doesn't mandate a CET1 capital requirement. Calabria chose to include it as part of the risk-based capital standard in the ERCF, and 12 USC 4611(a)(1) requires FHFA to promulgate a risk-based capital standard (though not one that necessarily includes a CET1 component).
That last part is semantics. Just like "par" is widely used in reference to the junior preferred shares is widely used to mean their stated value (rather than actual par value), "HERA" is generally used as shorthand for "The Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 as amended by HERA", even if the relevant section of the law was part of the Safety and Soundness Act and not actually amended by HERA.
By the way: Do you think that CET1 has any justification at all in Fannie's Capital rule? I looked into it 5 years ago and came to the conclusion that it's nonsense. The usual justification that CET1 is the “hardest capital” because it is the first to absorb losses is irrelevant for the GSEs since it is only a technical issue for them and doesn’t help preventing bankruptcy. I think the studies concerning CET1 do not fit here.
My opinion of its justification isn't very relevant, but I do understand Calabria having included it given his stated desires to align FnF's capital standards with Basel III and his quote that FnF's capital "should also largely be in the form of common equity".
In addition, the CET1 capital requirement disappearing would remove one reason for exchanging the juniors for commons, but others would remain such as allowing big Trump donor and large junior pref shareholder John Paulson to make more than full par value, and to make room in the capital structure to issue new prefs down the road if FnF ever need an emergency capital raise (on the basis that preferred shares are an easier sell than commons; FnF did this themselves in the 2000s).
kthomp19
3 hours ago
So only YOU get to define "skin in the game?"
Since the validity of an argument is an opinion, yes I get to define "skin in the game" in regards to that opinion. Specifically, if someone claims something is illegal then filing a lawsuit (as opposed to merely owning shares) is "skin in the game".
And a lack of lawsuits can be for many reasons, not just a lack of confidence in the argument. Again, your opinions are not facts! Maybe I'm out of the country, maybe I'm agoraphobic and can't leave my house, maybe I have no money, maybe I'm wanted for multiple felonies and need to stay incognito... Or maybe, just maybe... I just don't feel like it because it's a waste of time and has no bearing on the money I'll make on this stock?
All I see is a list of weak excuses. If you own enough shares to make a significant impact on your personal finances, you should be able to fund a lawsuit by selling some shares. And even in the absence of that possibility, a strong legal argument should be able to get a law firm to take the case on contingency which means no up front cost to you. From what I understand, the Lamberth case was indeed funded on just such a contingency, which in your specific case (LP ratchet/implied covenant) would leave you with no excuses at all.
The "waste of time" thing is pure bullshit. If you spent half the time crafting a lawsuit (filed on contingency, of course) that you did arguing with me on here, you could have filed 3 or 4 of them by now.
System? What system?
The court system. The burden of proof of illegality is on the plaintiffs in the court system.
When your position is contrary to their position, you are essentially saying "I'm right and you are wrong, because I don't need to do anything to prove my point, and you need to file a lawsuit to prove yours." This ipso facto makes your position undebatable, and it makes you just a Troll who wants to squash the contrary opinions.
Wrong again. Whether or not your pet legal theory has merit is something for courts to decide, not you or I. Neither of us can be "right" or "wrong" about the merits of the putative case without a court ruling.
Again, read my quote. I said the lack of a lawsuit makes that person's argument invalid, not wrong. There is a difference. You are once again guilty of putting words in my mouth and then attacking me based on them. It's a bad look for you.
NeoSunTzu
5 hours ago
EVERYONE FOCUS ... current price per share or even projections are NOT what is important now that we have achieved recognition that the c'ship needs to end and big name investors are leading the way. Collectively, we can make a much bigger impact if each of us can FOCUS energy on the final goal! EXPOSING the C'ship govt deceptions IS what WILL help us achieve that final goal = THE TRUE VALUE JUSTLY EARNED BY SHAREHOLDERS.
If we continue the nonsense that seems to rule the vast majority of posts on this board we will leave MASSIVE PROFITS on the table that both Wall Street and the government WILL swipe! Valuation is solid enough to now call a consensus among reputable large investors; these companies are currently worth $150 per share. DO NOT LOSE SIGHT OF THAT VALUE! The stupidity with responding to AlongZ and TightCoil, or requesting AlongZ's input, type posts and nonsense MUST END! Posting about current volume, achieving some single digit dollar price target, wondering why some meaningless poster's (see above) turned negative or what they think when they provide NO ANALYSIS, have no demonstrated trading or analytical skills just makes everyone in that thread appear ignorant or suspect.
Barron, Guido, and Rodney, in particular (but there are others) are sharing and providing Gold Mine info that MUST BE repeated endlessly here and shared, NOT only this platform (for all the new comers to see and share), but on EVERY OTHER PLATFORM you have access to. The information should especially be shared with Ackman. I love Navy's cheerleading, as well as some of the other info he is sharing, but I believe MUCH MORE FOCUS needs to be on the type of info I am relinking below (from Barron, Rodney, & Guido) much of which comes from X. Fiderer's posts are invaluable. If Trump, Paulson, Ackman, and others had the same knowledge base and the benefit of expertise from Fiderer, Rosner, and Howard there would be a MUCH LARGER chance of getting this nonsense of the Warrants and the need for large capital raises behind us.
Just imagine what a secondary offering at $50 or $60 or higher with fewer shares and a much quicker upside potential to $75, $100, or $125 with dividends would do for your lives and investment. THIS IS WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT!!!! The rest is all mental and social media ma$turbation - get it together, POST ABOUT MEANINGFUL INFO and SHARE IT FAR AND WIDE. Otherwise, we WILL get RUN OVER and lose THEEEEE ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY!!! (I get one post and this is best I can do here.)
Guido's recent post is below sharing FreeFannie (from X) calling out the government mistreatment of FnF on the loans, unfairness of the rate, and that it should have been properly declared as paid back in 2013!
Guido's Ihub post: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175655360
The X link shared in his post:
https://x.com/freefannie/status/1878655047715991552?s=46&t=2Y42DPZFgRdwTBHj5W8jMQ
Short quote from that post:
If @FannieMae had been treated like other companies that received TARP bailouts, they would have been subject to an interest rate of 5% for the first five years and 9% thereafter. However, since they were paying a 10% interest rate to the Treasury from 2009 to 2012, I credited them with a 5% overpayment each year during those years. This example has the loan paid back at the end of 2013.
there is much more info from FreeFannie you will find using the X link - READ IT AND F'ING SHARE IT WITH Ackman, Trump, Musk, etc!
Guido's Ihub post with the X link to Fiderer's great analyis:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175654824
The X link to Fiderer's info shared in Guido's:
https://x.com/ny1david/status/1878574151692075048?s=46&t=2Y42DPZFgRdwTBHj5W8jMQ
READ FIDERER'S INFO, LEARN IT SHARE IT! Ackman MUST receive multiple references to all this information for maximum effect. Fiderer continually completely destroys the government c'ship narrative!!
Repeating Barron's post from earlier today:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175655272
Sorry Rick, maybe read the laws first. If The GSEs go into receivership, the Director of FHFA must create a limited life regulated entity which must immediately succed to the existing charter acts. So 2 brand new shiny GSEs with no capital, because Treasury stole it all. Receivership would be the biggest financial FUBAR in history. Economic chaos. Recievership is not an option. No big banks get the business. So stop advocating or accepting for treasury to dilute our shares through illegal warrants. Fight! Fight! Fight! ... no attack on Rick, I know he was just sharing what he saw on Reddit.
We must be repeating this info continually to destroy the government narrative; anyone who comes into contact with this board should be bombarded with the enough information to at a minimum OPENLY question the status quo and the narrative and feel confident to share it with their network. This is the key to getting the eyes and support we need.
Forget $5, forget $7, forget $10, 20, 30 - we are aiming for what is rightly ours and what the insiders know these companies are already worth - well over $100. Sit on your a$$ then you will be counting nickels and dimes while Wall Street and the government counts OUR BILLIONS!!