Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAK) Quote

Confirmation Hearing for Pulte should be huge - does anyone know how many weeks out? Bill Pulte should be awesome!

Why would I be here if DJT is not won! Good words from Senator Lindsey Graham for new UST. F&F will be liberate and will be wall street darling as the matter of time. F&F SP up and down because they are not in major stock exchange also like Warren Buffett says “if you don’t find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die” and The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient". Buffett's belief that long-term investing is better than short-term gains. So any of F&F sh can't stand the heat in the kitchen then go head bail out all of your F&F precious share and move on and no excuse on Ackman presentation here and there because the F&F SP down and mm games. Low ball figure for F&F are 10,20 and 30 range. Possible 100 when the news F&F out of Cship. Again, why the two are now consider Wall street darling vs 4 years ago under Let go Brandon and Harris???? You be the judges.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-scott-bessent-testifies-at-senate-confirmation-hearing-for-treasury-secretary

RIDDLE ME THIS !

If Fannie and Freddie are fully Capitalised 21/31/2026 and Freddie 12/31/2027 why is it going to take another 10 years before dividends kick in 2034???

First time I've mentioned a RS...
I was harping on the warrants...
Dangerous biz...and throw in Bills presentation...SPOOKY

Things are not what they seem...imo
Also I point this out cuz I care deeply for all yous guys.

Be well
$27

What is it with you and this damn reverse split talk you don't seem to be able to give up?

Veteran fund manager makes bold prediction about Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
The Street - Jan 16, 2025 6:03 PM EST

https://www.thestreet.com/real-estate/veteran-fund-manager-makes-bold-prediction-about-fannie-mae-freddie-mac

Since the Treasury and the WH have so many ways to slow/stop stuff, I think Admin "happy GSE talk" will get them back on the NY exchange, at no real cost o the WH but add to the early promise that started six weeks ago--which still hasn't been declared officially by DJT incoming Treasury staff--so as not to ruin what that possible change brings to the party.
And if it doesn't suit Trump's needs, the or Bessent know how to stop the train.
The way the markets treat the GSE stocks in the next few days will tell us something about Bessent, Ackman, and Pulte.

But that’s the big if? Does it get,put on the exchange finally. ., until then it’s a pump and flip stock until then..0TC RULES THIS stock.

Agreed. But we got to be realist. This is the gov. anything goes...Is Bill pumping the stock to lessen a reverse split share number maybe maybe not. Keep head on a swivel.

Wow, pushing for no dilution and listing on NYSE. Another postponement, no reason to get excited.

Recall all the past promises on lawsuits? None even came to fruition. How long have we been waiting for Judge Lamberth. All pipe dreams.

Not sure folks here desire a reverse spit. I certainly do not

All 180 of her prepared questions, including about 14-15 GSE questions (looking like they were drafted byUrban Institute staff) appeared in her length letter to Treasury which has appeared on several different GSE sites.

Try this. The GSE Q's are about 3/4 of the way through.
http://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/final_-_letter_to_scott_bessent_ahead_of_finance_nomination_hearing2.pdf

ROLG's blog today about Bessent and Ackman.

Commentary on the Ackman/Bessent Doubleheader
And a Word of Caution Regarding Recent GSE Common Stock Trading Pattern
Rule Of Law Guy
Jan 16
·

Today, Bill Ackman presented his slide deck with commentary on Pershing’s valuation of FNMA and FMCC, pro forma for the recap/release expected during Trump 47. You can find the presentation here.

As well, Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent fielded questioning from the Senate Finance Committee en route to an expected confirmation recommendation to the Senate (and confirmation by the full Senate). His hearing can be found here.

Please find below my commentary on these two important events for GSE investors. This commentary will appear for paying subscribers. I encourage all of my free subscribers to upgrade to paid to support my newsletter.

Freedom from the paywall costs only a cup of coffee per month! My newsletter is good to the last drop.

Bessent

I will start with the Bessent Treasury Secretary nominee Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing, and I can be brief. The topics of the GSEs, and their recapitalization and conservatorship release did not come up at all in the three and one half hour hearing.

It seems that Senators who once harbored antagonistic views regarding GSE recap/release, such as Senator Warner, have GSE fatigue. Senator Warren, new to the Committee who one would expect is antagonistic to GSE administrative reform, likewise had nothing to say on the GSEs.

This is unalloyed good news for GSE investors. Senators are fixated currently on Trumpian tariffs and taxes in respect of Treasury matters, and I suspect this will continue until such time as the Trump 47 administration formally announces an administrative GSE recap/release program. At that time, some Senators may summon up their righteous indignation and bloviate, a dollar short and a day late. For Democrat Senators so eager to increase federal government revenues (through higher taxes on the wealthy), the reply that the GSE recap/release will increase federal government revenues substantially is a hard response to parry.

Notwithstanding this Senate Finance Committee silence on the GSEs, can we glean from this hearing anything regarding whether Treasury Secretary Bessent will be in favor of cancelling the SPS owned by Treasury in the recap/release, given that Treasury has received repayment of an amount greater than 10% IRR (the contracted 10% return on senior preferred principal, together with full repayment of that principal) from the GSEs? Of course, this is a crucial detail for GSE common stock investors, including Ackman, who in his presentation (discussed below) makes this assumption.

Bessent came across in the hearing as a highly intelligent, highly experienced financial expert with a respectful, patient and courteous demeanor. He often said during the hearing that he will study matters in detail and pursue POTUS’s policies at all times. GSE recap/release is a Trump 47 policy, and I see no reason to believe that Bessent will go squishy on GSE recap/release like Treasury Secretary Mnuchin did in Trump 45.

As for eliminating the SPS as already repaid, I can only point to one of Bessent’s comments that made me think he might eliminate the SPS. Bessent stated in response to one request for a commitment from a Democrat Senator, “No data, no opinion.”

The facts matter to Bessent, more so than political advantage. I would expect a financial expert such as Bessent would fixate on the details of the net worth sweep and the fact that Treasury has already received its contracted for SPS IRR, while there is substantial additional financial return for Treasury to recoup through its 79.9% warrant GSE position (which Ackman forecasts to be over $300 million dollars).

I don’t see Bessent seeking additional common stock from conversion of the SPS.

Ackman

Bill Ackman and his Pershing team presented a detailed historical overview of the GSE saga that is worth listening to for those relatively new to the investment. In addition, his recap/release transaction and valuation details were also well thought out and detailed. He arrives at a substantially higher FNMA valuation pro forma for the recap/release than I did when I presented my analysis in a newsletter post.

The principal reasons for this is that I assume the ERCF will stay in place, resulting in greater common stock dilution, and I assume both a lower PE and higher Treasury overhang market discount than Ackman does.

I set forth his principal terms and assumptions below (where relevant to the GSE common stock, I focus only on FNMA).

Headline conclusions:

FNMA valuation of $31.81/sh (p. 88) as of 2026 year end, after a $5B IPO (p. 83).

To substantiate his expected price appreciation in FNMA, Ackman presented his investment experience with GGP (p. 91) as precedent. Ackman states that GGP was his best investment to date in a stellar investment career. While GSE investment may be thought of as an unusual opportunity, it is by no means a one-off. Ackman presents the GGP comparison to substantiate his belief that FNMA will have a similar price appreciation.

Ackman states that he talked to the head of NYSE listings with respect to a potential NYSE listing of GSE stock pre-recap/release, and was informed that the GSEs would satisfy all NYSE listing requirements, conditioned on the consent of FHFA as conservator to the listing. This NYSE listing of GSE stock pre-release/recap would increase the near term trading prices of GSE stock, due to the greater liquidity afforded by the listing. By virtue of the NYSE listing, there would be a greater universe of investors authorized to buy the stock, and the stock would be suitable for inclusion by relevant indexes, further increasing the supply of buyers. All participants to the GSE recap/release should be in favor of NYSE listing as soon as practicable. It was good to hear that the NYSE would be on board.

Ackman predicts that FHFA will adopt a 2.5% equity capital standard for the GSEs, as opposed to the current complicated standard of 8% of risk-adjusted assets with buffers, which equates to the >4% equity capital standard of the ERCF. Ackman doesn’t address how FHFA gets from the ERCF to a 2.5% capital standard, which might require APA notice and comment (about a one year process). Given that he assumes an end of 2026 IPO for Fannie Mae and end of 2027 IPO for Freddie Mac, the FHFA regulatory notice and comment process certainly could fit within that transactional schedule.

Ackman mentions that Keefe Brunette and Woods, an influential fianancial industry banker, also advocates for a 2.5 equity capital standard, which I had not noticed before.

Ackman also points out that the GSEs have a “hidden” additional $100B of capital in terms of claims paying ability, given the ability of cash flow from non-defaulted mortgages to fund the losses arising from defaulted mortgages in a recessionary environment. In developing the ERCF, no credit was given by FHFA to this claims-paying ability beyond equity capital.

Ackman addresses the backstop line of credit expected to be offered the GSEs by Treasury, by quoting a 25bps cost for the line (p. 71). In addition to the 2.5% equity capital that each GSE would have (>$100B), each GSE could maintain an additional $200B line of credit from Treasury at a cost of $500 million/year. To provide context, Fannie Mae is expected to earn net income of $18B/yr on a recurring basis. Without doubt, a GSE that maintains a 2.5% equity capital standard with an additional $200B line of credit would have a fortress-like capital position to maintain unquestionable financial safety.

Ackman applies a 10% discount to the intrinsic value of GSE common stock to arrive at his IPO common stock value. This looks to me like a IPO market discount without any Treasury overhang discount. I believe this underestimates the effect of the overhang of Treasury’s 79.9% stock position, which the market knows Treasury wants to sell down ASAP.

In terms of valuation and PE ratios, Ackman believes that the GSEs should be valued within the continuum of P&C insurers and regulated utilities (pps. 92-93). This yields a PE of 15X. The key here is for the GSE bankers to make the case in the IPO roadshows that Ackman is right and the GSEs should benefit from a higher PE than would be suggested by comparison to national banks. I used a 8X PE for my analysis.

Ackman addresses the likelihood that Treasury will cancel the SPS by noting that Treasury’s financial incentives align with this outcome, and failure to do so would create additional litigation which would frustrate the recap/release that Trump 47 wants to achieve.

I agree with both comments. Treasury will make more money selling its 79.9% common stock interest (through only warrant exercise) than a hypothetical 100% common stock interest after full conversion of the SPS.

This may sound counter-intuitive. However, it is never good financial and marketing policy to destroy the common stock holding base immediately prior to trying to sell into that common stock holding base. Moreover, the federal government would have to add some $7T in liabilities onto its balance sheet during the period after SPS conversion and before sell down below a 79.9% common stock holding.

This creates an unnecessary and unforced error for the US Treasuries markets, and if you watched Bessent in the hearing, this is precisely the kind of move a careful, thoughtful and cautious Treasury Secretary like Bessent would not make.

Trading in GSE Common Stock

You may have noticed that since late December 2024, when Ackman announced his forthcoming slide deck presentation and $>30/sh forecast price for GSE common stock, the GSE common stock has been trading like a meme stock, rising and falling 25% per day on hot momentum-style trading ebbs and flows.

Ignore daily moves, and instead focus on who Trump chooses for the new FHFA director [literally right after I first typed this, Trump nominated Bill Pulte as FHFA director], what Treasury Secretary says and does, and other Trump 47 news developments.

I will be right here deciphering as best as I can what I believe are the implications of these developments for a GSE investor.

* * * * *

Sometimes they reverse split commons to get listing requirements. But let's not talk about that...and don't give me they won't cuz bill ackman has millions of shares...warren buffet had his SIRI shares reversed split...Bill is pumping this thing to effect that possible out come...buy no post about that.

Not an attack post
I'm from the government and I'm here to help.

Keefe agrees with Ackman on Fannie, Freddie minimum capital level
Keefe Bruyette says Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, this morning a presentation on detailing his investment thesis for Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) common shares. Keefe agrees with Ackman’s view that reducing the government-sponsored enterprise minimum capital level to around 2.5% is key to consummating the privatization without raising mortgage rates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees 2.5% as a “very strong” level of capital. It also believes that privatization is possible without disrupting the agency mortgage-backed security market, as long as the transition is handled well and Treasury is effective at messaging that the implicit guaranty will remain in place on agency MBS. Keefe has assumed that Treasury would convert its senior preferred to common which has made it cautious on the common shares given the dilution risk. However, it “would potentially agree with the argument in the presentation that a conversion of senior preferred to common should be avoided because it’s likely to result in a new slew of litigation, which could derail any privatization effort.”

GSEs won't meet $4 listing requirement. This slide is going to drop pps substantially 🤠

Where can we find that GSE Warren question, did Pag peep in her purse? Lol
Fnma

None. That’s what Schwab shows after market. Zero change. I did not say there was a change today. Go Brandon was looking for one. The past 2 days it showed a change. But not today

Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is interesting. An openly gay man who was a partner at the (George) Soros Fund Management (??) and (of course) a big Trump donor. The MAGAts gotta be freaking out over that, lol. At least he seems halfway qualified, compared to some of his other picks anyway, and doesn't appear to be a Nazi.

NYSE here we come.  It's good to be back.

https://x.com/actvstinvstr/status/1879933714064633885?s=46&t=xLP2LlWgJrEMUZZ7Fum-nA

It will be buyers and sellers once listed. Treasury can not decide the price. It meets the requirement for listing. FHFA director and treasury will go ahead with listing and will have shareholder's meeting soon. The JURY has spoken against the theft and therefore no one asked question about the need to release. You can not take money from shareholders of a private corporation and spread the wealth.

Could go Red, then Neutral and move Green !!! lol

watch out shorts and loser commons haters. big surprise in 25. bananas bananas bananas

What is PagMan talking about now ?

https://x.com/timpagliara/status/1880040296597070208?s=46&t=xLP2LlWgJrEMUZZ7Fum-nA

Latest FNMA Trades Delayed by 15 mins
Buy/Sell Ratio
Buy: 13MNeutral: 11MSell: 16M
Time Price Size Type B/S Bid Price Ask Price Total Volume Num Exch.
16:39:31 5.40 2,400 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,289,636 33637 nasd
16:01:01 5.40 50 Sell 5.40 5.41 41,287,236 33636 nasd
16:00:26 5.40 1,794 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,287,186 33635 nasd
16:00:26 5.41 5,000 form t Buy 5.40 5.41 41,285,392 33634 nasd
16:00:24 5.41 500 form t Buy 5.40 5.41 41,280,392 33633 nasd
16:00:24 5.41 250 form t Buy 5.40 5.41 41,279,892 33632 nasd
16:00:22 5.40 4,016 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,279,642 33631 nasd
16:00:21 5.40 1,000 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,275,626 33630 nasd
16:00:21 5.40 1,400 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,274,626 33629 nasd
16:00:12 5.40 169 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,273,226 33628 nasd
16:00:07 5.41 1,672 form t Buy 5.40 5.41 41,273,057 33627 nasd
15:59:59 5.40 743

After careful thought and due diligence and detailed analysis I have narrowed tomorrows price action as either ending in the red, neutral, or green.

UN-and-IMF-see-the-ability-to-use-digital-identification-and-cbdcs-as-a-type-of-social-credit-score-to-control-direct-behavior
visit - www.cogwriter.com - see link same as above title

Today's FNMA form t . Form T are trades that made it before the market closed, still been processed and form T generagted to complete transaction.
NOTE: FNMA closed at $5.40
Where's the big price change !!!

Time Price Size Type B/S Bid Price Ask Price Buy Ind. Total Volume Num Exch.

16:39:31 5.40 2,400 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,289,636 33637 nasd
16:01:01 5.40 50 Sell 5.40 5.41 41,287,236 33636 nasd
16:00:26 5.40 1,794 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,287,186 33635 nasd
16:00:26 5.41 5,000 form t Buy 5.40 5.41 41,285,392 33634 nasd
16:00:24 5.41 500 form t Buy 5.40 5.41 41,280,392 33633 nasd
16:00:24 5.41 250 form t Buy 5.40 5.41 41,279,892 33632 nasd
16:00:22 5.40 4,016 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,279,642 33631 nasd
16:00:21 5.40 1,000 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,275,626 33630 nasd
16:00:21 5.40 1,400 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,274,626 33629 nasd
16:00:12 5.40 169 form t Sell 5.40 5.41 41,273,226 33628 nasd

Fannie and Freddie Trading Mode for Friday

FEAR and TREMBLING

Congressional Law

SEC. 304. SECONDARY MARKET OPERATION

Fee Limitation

Quote: “(f) PROHIBITION ON ASSESSMENT OR COLLECTION OF FEE OR CHARGE BY UNITED STATES.—Except for fees paid pursuant to section 309(g) of this Act and assessments pursuant to section 1316 of the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992, no fee or charge may be assessed or collected by the United States (including any executive department, agency, or independent establishment of the United States) on or with regard to the purchase, acquisition, sale, pledge, issuance, guarantee, or redemption of any mortgage, asset, obligation, trust certificate of beneficial interest, or other security by the corporation. No provision of this subsection shall affect the purchase of any obligation by the Secretary of the Treasury pursuant to subsection (c) of this section.” End of Quote. Page 16

Only Federal Reserve Banks are authorized to be reimbursed of fees, (section 309).

SEC. 309. GENERAL POWERS OF GOVERNMENT NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION AND FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION

Federal Reserve Banks to Act as Fiscal Agents (Fannie Mae and GNMA)

Quote: “(g) DEPOSITARIES, CUSTODIANS, AND FISCAL AGENTS.—The Federal Reserve banks are authorized and directed to act as depositaries, custodians, and fiscal agents for each of the bodies corporate named in section 302(a)(2), for its own account or as fiduciary, and such banks shall be reimbursed for such services in such manner as may be agreed upon; and each of such bodies corporate may itself act in such capacities, for its own account or as fiduciary, and for the account of others.” End of Quote. Page 29


Link:

FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION CHARTER ACT
As amended through July 25, 2019

link: https://www.fanniemae.com/sites/g/files/koqyhd191/files/migrated-files/resources/file/aboutus/pdf/fm-amended-charter.pdf

There it is D bag, you’re welcome.
I’m sorry to disappoint you!
No change after market closed unlike the past 2 days.
Get ready for another bad day tomorrow! D bag. Lmao!
Brand new newbie since 2013 thank you

Yes, yes they do BUT .... Speed and like-mindedness is a dish served hot. JMO

5.40-$0.8100(-13.04%)
After hours: 5:00:03 PM ET, 01/16/2025
$5.40-$0.8100(-13.04%)
At close: 4:00:00 PM ET, 01/16/2025
Bid
$5.39
Ask
$5.55
Bid/Ask Size
-/-
Previous close
$6.21
Today's

Not today because it didn’t happen, look at my post last 2 days dummy. I posted it and will post todays as well. But there is no after market change today! Things that you make you go um!!

The argument in the presentation that a conversion of senior preferred to common should be avoided because it’s likely to result in a new lawsuits, which could derail any privatization effort. The government has collected $301billion enough is enough, why should the dark hole of the treasury receive $500 billion on a $200 billion commitment?

By Federal Statute the Treasury owes the companies not the other way around. The Senior Preferred Stock has an illegal commitment fee attached. So, in reality Ackman has proposed giving away a large portion of the companies by 79.9% warrants illegal and unconstitutional.

One more thought! I couldn't resist.

I'd love to see DOGE recommend that all Federal contracts with the Urban Institute terminated! I can hope. While Fed contracts are not the entirety of the UI budget, I'd kindly suggest to our friends Zandi and Parrot to spend less time on opinion pieces and more time dusting off their resumes and LinkedIn profiles.

You know, just in case.

Some key follow-on thoughts I had specific to the FHFA:

- There is a good chance the Trump admin believes they have the latitude to operate unilaterally without Congressional approval on key issues surrounding termination of the conservancy based on constitutionality of the FHFA's structure

- There is a decent chance this means that they can view FHFA agreements through this lens and allow them to justify action to settle current cases, including:
i. Termination of details in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th amendments that inhibit recap release strategies.
ii. ...while allowing them to preserve “taxpayer value” through monetization of assets on Treasury’s balance sheet.
iii. ....which gives the new admin the incentive to quickly release, by creating space and giving them discretion to fund key initiatives while simultaneously cutting budget.

- Marc's interview gives Bill A.'s thoughts on Treasury not exercising/monetizing the SPS additional perspective and credence.

- It is interesting how a lot of the valid frustrations vented on the board and not implemented by the Obama, Trump 1, and Biden admins now align the agenda of the incoming admin. Maybe we finally won't have to file our own lawsuits or shut up! (Hi @kthomp19! You do good work sir 🙂).

GLTA, and to quote Sanders on The Simpsons, "Godspeed, little doodle"

NOT A FAN OF BILLS PLAN…I wouldn’t be either! The Gov has stolen enough.!!

when something has almost no intrinsic value, and is rotten to the core, I could care less about it, him, her, whatever.

Absolutely ridiculous 🙄

Hello all,

I hadn't heard anyone write about this, but here's a link to a Marc Andreessen interview at the Hoover institute on Tuesday (Jan 14, 2025).



(For those unfamiliar with him, Marc founded Netscape, is a big Silicon Valley VC guy)

Some salient points and caveats that relate to the interview, the Department of Gov't Efficiency, and we non-haters on this board (starts at 15:42):

Caveats:
1) Marc is an unpaid intern so doesn't speak for DOGE (15:49, 30:51)
2) DOGE is making recommendations to the office of the President only (31:02)

Salient points:
3) DOGE is considering some relatively new approaches to reducing Federal spending, such as:
a) Coming into compliance with the Constitution on Supreme Court rulings with respect to Federal Agencies (22:52)
b) ...including coming into compliance with the June '24 the Chevron ruling (briefly alluded to at 23:28)
c) Removing agencies that are unconstitutional and counter SCOTUS interpretation of the constitution (23:59). Marc specifically mentioned the unconstitutionality of independent agencies like the CFPB (24:42)

🤔

Come on man. We are part of the GSE family my brothers.

Simply because the pps is in a violent and rapid slide doesn't mean we can't get along. Wow, got Along4zride in that nicely. 😳

Thanks RetCB - cant imagine a better FHFA Director - both a Pulte and a good guy!! God Bless DJT!! God Bless Director Pulte!!

were u looking in the mirror, i think so.
I call him a stupid loud mouth.
must have been terrible as a child, seen it so many times, they grow up so angry and frustrated, always trying to bring everyone down to their level, sad

Spot on. Absolutely no reason to do this presentation especially during this time. Why I call him a stupid loud mouth.

You dont need to slow anything. You are clueless and have bipolar disorder..

Did Josh give any response as to what share price he believed the commons would come in at with extreme dilution after recap and release?

Let''s go back16 years and ask Congress why they cancelled this bill

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/hr1929