German Industrial Output Slumps
October 07 2015 - 8:30AM
Dow Jones News
FRANKFURT—German industrial output slumped in August, in yet
another sign that slower growth in China and recessions in other
key developing countries are starting to dent Europe's
powerhouse.
Just one day after the economics ministry revealed a steep fall
in manufacturing orders, the ministry said Wednesday that
industrial production in August dropped 1.2% on the month, pushing
the overall output volume back to its June level.
"The slowdown in global activity is clearly affecting the German
economy," said Rainer Sartoris, an economist at HSBC in Dü
sseldorf.
In a sign of the slide, German steel distributor Kloeckner &
Co. on Tuesday said it would not meet its third-quarter profit
target, citing price declines and weak demand for steel and metal
products.
"Chinese steel is pushing on the market, pressuring prices in
Europe and the U.S.," said Christian Pokropp, a spokesman at
Kloeckner & Co. in Duisburg. "China has long had huge
overcapacities, but import-pressures have accelerated in recent
weeks and months, and falling prices are weighing on margins," he
said.
The lower earnings guidance came just a day after port logistics
group Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG lowered its target for the
year owing to "persistently weak and continually declining" volumes
in its container segment. The country's biggest port is struggling
to cope with slower growth in China and a collapse in its business
with Russia.
"We don't expect a dramatic fall in industrial activity just
yet, but we are aware of the downside risks arising from both
weaker global trade and the auto sector, following the recent
emissions scandal at Volkswagen," Mr. Sartoris said. Europe's
largest car maker is expected to face heavy fines after it emerged
that it had installed software in some diesel cars that made them
perform better in emissions tests than they would on the road.
Economists at HSBC in late September trimmed their economic
growth forecasts for the German economy, to an annualized rate of
0.8% in the fourth quarter from an earlier estimate of 1.6%.
The economics ministry on Wednesday played down the sharp
decline in industrial output during August, saying that it was
largely caused by the late timing of the summer vacation. The trend
in industry remains "moderately positive," it said.
German industrial production has moved broadly sideways since
the start of the year and the recent weakness in industry is add
odds with robust business sentiment surveys that are still
signaling solid activity in the months ahead.
But economists caution that two straight months of declining
manufacturing orders should be seen as a warning. "Over the last
couple of months, the industrial safety net of low inventories and
filled order books has become thinner," said Carsten Brzeski, an
economist at ING in Frankfurt.
The economics ministry said that German production of capital
goods in August was down 2.1% from July, while construction output
fell 1.3%.
"Germany's industry is losing some steam" and the data point to
a reduction in industrial output in the third quarter from the same
period a year earlier, said Thomas Huene, an economist the BDI
industry association in Berlin. But, according to Mr. Huene, there
is no reason to be overly concerned, especially as sentiment among
German businesses remains positive.
In September the Ifo think tank's business climate index for
manufacturing slid to its lowest level since February, but
manufacturers remained optimistic about future trade, reporting
plans to ramp up production. Purchasing managers surveys also
indicate a solid rise in new business at German manufacturers in
September, although data firm Markit's manufacturing PMI slid to
52.3 from 53.3 in August.
Elsewhere in the eurozone, industrial companies in Spain also
shifted down a gear during August. Spain's statistics institute INE
on Wednesday revealed a 1.4% monthly drop in industrial output, the
first decline since November. "A slowdown in emerging-market growth
and a relatively strong euro exchange rate suggest further downside
risks ahead," said Gizem Kara, an economist at BNP Paribas in
London. "The outlook for production is less buoyant," she said.
Write to Nina Adam at nina.adam@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 07, 2015 08:15 ET (12:15 GMT)
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