Neutral on Caterpillar - Analyst Blog
November 23 2012 - 1:00PM
Zacks
We are maintaining our Neutral recommendation on
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) based on a muted fourth
quarter outlook, reduced fiscal 2012 guidance, negative impact of
the European debt crisis and a slowing Chinese economy. We
currently have a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term Hold rating) on the
stock.
Caterpillar reported record third quarter both in terms of
earnings per share (EPS) and revenues. EPS in the quarter was
$2.54, a 49% increase from $1.71 in the prior-year quarter, and way
ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.21. Revenues upped 5%
to $16.4 billion in the quarter, but fell short of the Zacks
Consensus Estimate of $16.7 billion.
Caterpillar has lowered its sales guidance to $66 billion from
the prior guidance range of $68 billion to $70 billion due to
weaker economic conditions across the globe. The company has also
trimmed its EPS expectation to a range of $9.00 to $9.25 from the
previous outlook of $9.60.
The outlook, even though lowered from the prior guidance, if
achieved would mark the highest sales and profit in Caterpillar’s
history, exceeding the record levels last year. For fiscal 2013,
sales are expected to be down 5% to up 5% from 2012.
The Caterpillar-Bucyrus merger has positioned Caterpillar as
the leading global mining original equipment manufacturer.
Caterpillar boasts the broadest product line in the mining industry
with unmatched product support.
The construction sector has lately been weak and thereby
affected Caterpillar’s earnings. However, the recent figures
suggest a turnaround in the non-residential as well as residential
construction sector.
According to the American Institute of Architects, after
languishing in the negative territory for five consecutive months,
the architecture billing index (ABI) climbed back into the positive
territory with a score of 50.2 in August, which further improved to
51.6 in September, the highest in nearly two years. In September,
both housing starts and building permits were record high in four
years.
These figures are reflective of the fact that U.S. residential
construction is finally stabilizing and is on the road to a much
awaited recovery. This will provide a boost to Caterpillar’s
earnings.
The company had been persistently adding production capacity
for a number of mining products. Even though fluctuations in the
emerging economies are expected to negatively impact near-term
results, the expansion should provide long-term growth
opportunities. Growing economies promote the expansion of roads,
new buildings and reliable energy, which drives the demand for
machinery
Caterpillar’s fourth quarter results is expected be lower than
the third quarter as the company will cut down production to
counteract inventory increases and backlog depletion. Furthermore,
sales volume is expected to be lower, and the fourth quarter
typically has seasonally higher costs.
In addition to the European debt crisis, signs of a slowdown
in China have triggered concerns. China has slashed its 2012 growth
target to an eight-year low of 7.5%. A slowing Chinese economy will
have a detrimental effect on infrastructure and construction
spending with an immediate impact on Caterpillar’s sales in the
near term.
Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar Inc. is the manufacturer of
construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines,
and industrial gas turbines. The company is one of the few leading
U.S. companies in an industry that competes globally from a
principally domestic manufacturing base. Caterpillar operates two
divisions – Machinery and Power Systems and Financial Products.
Caterpillar competes with the likes of CNH Global
NV (CNH), Komatsu Ltd. (KMTUY) and
Volvo AB (VOLVY).
CATERPILLAR INC (CAT): Free Stock Analysis Report
CNH GLOBAL NV (CNH): Free Stock Analysis Report
(KMTUY): ETF Research Reports
VOLVO AB ADR B (VOLVY): Free Stock Analysis Report
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