MOL Ebitda Seen Hitting Record High Again -- Earnings Preview
November 05 2015 - 7:31AM
Dow Jones News
By Margit Feher
BUDAPEST--Budapest-based oil and gas company MOL Nyrt. (MOL.BU),
Hungary's largest firm by revenue, is set to report third-quarter
earnings before the market opens on Friday. Here's what you need to
know:
EARNINGS FORECAST: MOL is forecast to report another set of
robust results, boosted by refining revenue despite falling oil
prices. Still, a write-down on lower-than-expected geological
potential of its Akri-Bijeel Block in Iraq will dampen its bottom
line. The total current book value of Akri-Bijeel investments in
MOL's balance sheet amounts to $440 million.
MOL's net loss is forecast at 22.7 billion forints ($78.9
million) for the period, a swing from a net profit of HUF28.5
billion a year earlier, based on a poll of 11 analysts by the
company.
MOL's clean earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortization, an indicator of profitability in the oil industry
investors watched the most, is forecast at HUF187.7 billion ($652.4
million), hitting a record high for the second quarter in a row
after the previous quarter's HUF179.5 billion, and up 14% from
HUF164.5 billion a year earlier. Clean earnings don't include the
revaluation of inventories and one-off items.
Clean operating profit is forecast at HUF108.6 billion, up 10.6%
from HUF98.2 billion a year earlier.
REVENUE FORECAST: No forecast is available.
WHAT TO WATCH:
UPSTREAM: Clean upstream Ebitda is projected at HUF45.9 billion,
down by a sharp 31% year-over-year on falling oil prices. Concorde
Securities analyst Attila Vago projected an output rise of 7% on
the year to 102,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day from 94,900 a
year earlier, predominantly driven by North Sea and Kurdistan
production.
DOWNSTREAM: Clean downstream Ebitda is forecast at HUF138.3
billion, more than double from HUF67.7 billion a year earlier, due
to higher refining margins and persistently strong petrochemicals
and retail sales performance. That would be down somewhat from the
previous quarter's all-time record high of HUF143.2 billion.
Crack spreads were up and down on the year over the period, Mr.
Vago said. The price difference between Brent-type and Ural-type
crude narrowed in the third quarter to $1.1 per barrel from $1.4, a
negative for MOL, which refines lower-priced Russian Ural-type
crude, but sells the refined products at prices adjusted to Brent
prices.
Downstream sales volume probably increased by up to 6% on the
year to 5.25 million metric tons, but the sales margin might have
narrowed to nil due to stiffer competition, Mr. Vago said.
Write to Margit Feher at margit.feher@wsj.com; Twitter:
@margitfeher
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 05, 2015 07:16 ET (12:16 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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