Munich Re Urges Caution Over 2023 Hurricanes Amid Conflicting Climatic Signals
May 31 2023 - 7:59AM
Dow Jones News
By Pierre Bertrand
Munich Re said Wednesday that initial forecasts suggest the
number of Atlantic hurricanes will roughly fall within a long-term
historical average, but warned that it isn't clear which of two
contrasting climate effects with a hand in either inhibiting or
fueling tropical cyclones will have the most influence this
hurricane season.
The conflicting signals are making it difficult to provide
reliable forecasts about hurricanes, which have the potential to
cause billions in damage.
Thursday's start to this year's hurricane season coincides with
unusually high water temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic,
which could drive cyclones. At the same time, a weather phenomenon
known as El Nino is expected to develop by late summer in the
Pacific, the German insurer said.
In the Atlantic, El Nino causes strong winds at high altitude,
which inhibit hurricanes by tearing them apart, Munich Re said.
"El Nino will have an impact on extreme weather throughout the
world, and may possibly inhibit cyclones. But due to the higher sea
surface temperatures, everything may be happening at a higher
level. This can still produce devastating storms in what is an
otherwise inhibiting environment," Munich Re climate expert Anja
Raedler said, advising caution.
Munich Re said it expects, based on initial forecasts, that
around six of the 12 named tropical storms in the North Atlantic
this season could develop into hurricanes. Of these, two could be
considered major.
Hurricane Ian was the most devastating of 14 tropical cyclones
last year. It caused overall losses of $100 billion, of which
roughly $60 billion was insured, Munich Re said.
Hurricane season lasts until the end of November.
Write to Pierre Bertrand at pierre.bertrand@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 31, 2023 07:44 ET (11:44 GMT)
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