Optimism Grows For Chip Sector Even As Tech Sags
May 20 2009 - 4:12PM
Dow Jones News
After months of gloom, chip makers are becoming more confident
that the market has stabilized, even as the rest of the technology
sector still suffers from tepid demand and uncertain prospects.
A better-than-expected quarterly report from Analog Devices Inc.
(ADI) Tuesday night is the latest sign that conditions in the chip
sector are improving. The results - coming a month later than most
in the sector and on the back of optimistic comments from Intel
Corp. (INTC), Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) and others - suggest the
worst may be behind semiconductor companies.
Though chip stocks have rallied in recent months, there's room
for more gains if the bullish signs continue, particularly if Texas
Instrument's mid-quarter update and National Semiconductor Corp.'s
(NSM) earnings - both due in early June - add to bullish
sentiment.
And the bar may still be low for companies to surprise on the
upside.
"At least at this level of economic activity, the estimates have
probably been conservative," Stifel Nicolaus analyst Cody Acree
said, adding that more bullish news would lead to further stock
gains.
Since the end of last quarter the Philadelphia Semiconductor
Index, or SOX, is up about 15%, roughly in line with the Standard
& Poor's 500. In the same period, the broader Morgan Stanley
Technology Index has gained 19%, suggesting that chip stocks are
lagging other tech stocks.
Of course, investors still have reason to stay cautious about
jumping into chips for the long haul. While sentiment may be
changing, the companies are still reporting significant
year-over-year declines in revenue and earnings. For example,
Analog Devices' report was considered surprisingly good, leading to
a 17% gain Wednesday in its stock price, but revenue still fell 27%
from a year earlier.
Analysts warn that any run in chip stocks could be short-lived,
as overall demand for technology products from consumers and
businesses remains subdued.
"End-demand continues to be weak," said Robert W. Baird analyst
Tristan Gerra. "It's a question as to whether end-demand could pick
up in the second half."
And other parts of tech remain cautious. For example,
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) Chief Executive Mark Hurd said Tuesday
that he's "not ready to call the market better." He added that
business spending on IT continues to be restricted by companies'
caution about the future, and any uptick in business IT spending
may not be seen until much later this year.
That contrasts with recent optimistic comments from chip makers.
Last week, executives from chip titan Intel said conditions in its
existing businesses aren't as bad as people think. Chief Executive
Paul Otellini, who in April said demand for chips had reached a
bottom, said order patterns indicated that business is "a little
better" than expected.
On Friday, Carlo Bozotti, head of STMicroelectronics NV (STM)
Europe's largest chip maker, said early signs of improvement in the
semiconductor market have continued.
Earlier this week, TI Chief Executive Rich Templeton said
inventory levels have been stabilizing - an important signal that
the massive cuts in orders from customers seen late last year have
subsided.
And ADI's better-than-expected quarter reflected a period ended
May 2, a month into most companies' current quarter, offering
optimism for the results to be reported in July.
-By Jerry A. DiColo; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5670;
jerry.dicolo@dowjones.com