TI Results Shows Chip Inventories, Not Demand, Are Improving
July 21 2009 - 1:13PM
Dow Jones News
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) offered hope for the continued
recovery of the semiconductor sector with its earnings report late
Monday, but don't confuse better inventories with a return of
demand for technology products.
TI made clear that the huge drop in chip purchases seen earlier
in the year are over, as the supply chain for tech products begins
a return to normal. That's good news for fellow analog chip makers
as they report earnings results for the quarter, but there's little
evidence yet that real growth - based on an improving market for
cellphones, computers and other tech products, instead of inventory
corrections - is on the horizon.
With the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, up more than
40% over the past six months, that could leave chip stocks in limbo
while investors wait for a broader economic recovery.
"There's no reason why you should feel comfortable about things
right now," said Wedbush Morgan analyst Patrick Wang. While
short-term traders probably have a few months left of safety, Wang
said, the key data on prospects for the traditionally stronger
second half of the year won't be out until late August or
September.
"If you see those things coming back negatively, watch out," he
said.
Still, TI's second-quarter results and third-quarter outlook
bode well for other chip makers, particularly analog chip makers
including Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) or National Semiconductor Corp.
(NSM).
TI, which makes chips used in everything from cellphones to
industrial machinery, topped Wall Street estimates for earnings and
revenue, and offered a view of the third quarter that suggests
improvement in the market will continue.
Analog chips, which perform tasks like managing battery power or
working in communications infrastructure, saw the biggest increase
in sales from the previous quarter. Revenue in the segment grew 21%
from the first quarter, though it was down 24% from a year ago.
But during the conference call to discuss the results, Chief
Financial Officer Kevin March said growth from the previous quarter
is tied to the actions of TI's customers more than a change in end
demand.
Customers had been slashing the number of chips they buy as
consumers stopped buying tech products, and the rate at which they
are reducing those chip inventories is slowing. That allowed TI's
shipments continued to rise, putting demand for chips closer in
line with demand for the products they help run.
Correcting this disparity is an important step in the chip
sector's recovery, but some worry chip stocks are anticipating a
broader economic recovery as well. With unemployment continuing to
rise and credit still scarce for consumers, it's unclear whether
chip makers will be able to grow after the supply chain gets back
in line.
JPMorgan analyst Chris Danely said he is concerned about the 25%
sales growth TI could see over two quarters, based on its report,
compared to end markets that were roughly flat.
If TI will be shipping its chips at around the same levels
customers are using them by the end of the third-quarter, as some
assert, its prospects will again be tied to tech product sales.
Spending on those areas in the crucial fourth-quarter is still
anyone's guess.
-By Jerry A. DiColo, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2155;
jerry.dicolo@dowjones.com