TIDMBHMG TIDMBHMU
BH MACRO LIMITED
MONTHLY SHAREHOLDER REPORT:
AUGUST 2018
YOUR ATTENTION IS DRAWN TO THE DISCLAIMER AT THE OF THIS
DOCUMENT
BH Macro Overview
Limited
Manager: BH Macro Limited ("BHM") is a closed-ended investment company, registered and
Brevan Howard incorporated in Guernsey on 17 January 2007 (Registration Number: 46235).
Capital BHM invests all of its assets (net of short-term working capital) in the
Management LP ordinary shares of Brevan Howard Master Fund Limited (the "Fund").
("BHCM") BHM was admitted to the Official List of the UK Listing Authority and to
Administrator: trading on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange on 14 March 2007.
Northern Trust
International
Fund
Administration Total $500 mm¹
Services Assets:
(Guernsey)
Limited
("Northern
Trust") 1. As at 31 August 2018. Source: BHM's administrator, Northern Trust.
Corporate
Broker:
J.P. Morgan
Cazenove
Listing:
London Stock
Exchange
(Premium
Listing)
Summary BH Macro Limited NAV per Share (Calculated as at 31 August 2018)
Information
Share NAV (USD NAV per
Class mm) Share
USD 64.8 $24.11
Shares
GBP 435.1 GBP23.71
Shares
BH Macro Limited NAV per Share % Monthly Change
USD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2007 0.10 0.90 0.15 2.29 2.56 3.11 5.92 0.03 2.96 0.75 20.27
2008 9.89 6.70 -2.79 -2.48 0.77 2.75 1.13 0.75 -3.13 2.76 3.75 -0.68 20.32
2009 5.06 2.78 1.17 0.13 3.14 -0.86 1.36 0.71 1.55 1.07 0.37 0.37 18.04
2010 -0.27 -1.50 0.04 1.45 0.32 1.38 -2.01 1.21 1.50 -0.33 -0.33 -0.49 0.91
2011 0.65 0.53 0.75 0.49 0.55 -0.58 2.19 6.18 0.40 -0.76 1.68 -0.47 12.04
2012 0.90 0.25 -0.40 -0.43 -1.77 -2.23 2.36 1.02 1.99 -0.36 0.92 1.66 3.86
2013 1.01 2.32 0.34 3.45 -0.10 -3.05 -0.83 -1.55 0.03 -0.55 1.35 0.40 2.70
2014 -1.36 -1.10 -0.40 -0.81 -0.08 -0.06 0.85 0.01 3.96 -1.73 1.00 -0.05 0.11
2015 3.14 -0.60 0.36 -1.28 0.93 -1.01 0.32 -0.78 -0.64 -0.59 2.36 -3.48 -1.42
2016 0.71 0.73 -1.77 -0.82 -0.28 3.61 -0.99 -0.17 -0.37 0.77 5.02 0.19 6.63
2017 -1.47 1.91 -2.84 3.84 -0.60 -1.39 1.54 0.19 -0.78 -0.84 0.20 0.11 -0.30
2018 2.54 -0.38 -1.54 1.07 8.41 -0.57 0.91 0.90 11.57
GBP Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2007 0.11 0.83 0.17 2.28 2.55 3.26 5.92 0.04 3.08 0.89 20.67
2008 10.18 6.86 -2.61 -2.33 0.95 2.91 1.33 1.21 -2.99 2.84 4.23 -0.67 23.25
2009 5.19 2.86 1.18 0.05 3.03 -0.90 1.36 0.66 1.55 1.02 0.40 0.40 18.00
2010 -0.23 -1.54 0.06 1.45 0.36 1.39 -1.96 1.23 1.42 -0.35 -0.30 -0.45 1.03
2011 0.66 0.52 0.78 0.51 0.59 -0.56 2.22 6.24 0.39 -0.73 1.71 -0.46 12.34
2012 0.90 0.27 -0.37 -0.41 -1.80 -2.19 2.38 1.01 1.95 -0.35 0.94 1.66 3.94
2013 1.03 2.43 0.40 3.42 -0.08 -2.95 -0.80 -1.51 0.06 -0.55 1.36 0.41 3.09
2014 -1.35 -1.10 -0.34 -0.91 -0.18 -0.09 0.82 0.04 4.29 -1.70 0.96 -0.04 0.26
2015 3.26 -0.58 0.38 -1.20 0.97 -0.93 0.37 -0.74 -0.63 -0.49 2.27 -3.39 -0.86
2016 0.60 0.70 -1.78 -0.82 -0.30 3.31 -0.99 -0.10 -0.68 0.80 5.05 0.05 5.79
2017 -1.54 1.86 -2.95 0.59 -0.68 -1.48 1.47 0.09 -0.79 -0.96 0.09 -0.06 -4.35
2018 2.36 -0.51 -1.68 1.01 8.19 -0.66 0.82 0.79 10.46
Source: Fund NAV data is provided by the administrator of the Fund,
International Fund Services (Ireland) Limited ("IFS"). BHM NAV and NAV per
Share data is provided by BHM's administrator, Northern Trust. BHM NAV per
Share % Monthly Change is calculated by BHCM. BHM NAV data is unaudited and net
of all investment management and all other fees and expenses payable by BHM. In
addition, the Fund is subject to an operational services fee.
With effect from 1 April 2017, the management fee is 0.5% per annum. BHM's
investment in the Fund is subject to an operational services fee of 0.5% per
annum.
No management fee or operational services fee is charged in respect of
performance related growth of NAV for each class of share in excess of its
level on 1 April 2017 as if the tender offer commenced by BHM on 27 January
2017 had completed on 1 April 2017.
NAV performance is provided for information purposes only. Shares in BHM do not
necessarily trade at a price equal to the prevailing NAV per Share.
Data as at 31 August 2018
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
ASC 820 Asset Brevan Howard Master Fund Limited
Valuation
Categorisation Unaudited as at 31 August 2018
on a non
look-through % of Gross Market
basis* Value*
Level 1 73.1
Level 2 17.2
Level 3 0.0
At NAV 9.7
Source: BHCM
* This data is unaudited and has been calculated by BHCM using the same
methodology as that used in the most recent audited financial statements of
the Fund. The relative size of each category is subject to change. Sum may
not total 100% due to rounding.
Level 1: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are
priced using unadjusted quoted prices in active markets that are accessible
at the measurement date for identical, unrestricted assets or liabilities.
Level 2: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are
priced using either (i) quoted prices that are identical or similar in
markets that are not active or (ii) model-derived valuations for which all
significant inputs are observable, either directly or indirectly in active
markets.
ASC 820 Asset Level 3: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are
Valuation priced or valued using inputs that are both significant to the fair value
Categorisation measurement and are not observable directly or indirectly in an active
on a market.
look-through
basis* At NAV: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio that are
invested in other Brevan Howard funds and priced or valued at NAV.
% of Gross Market
Value*
Level 1 80.6
Level 2 19.4
Level 3 0.0
Source: BHCM
* This data reflects the combined ASC 820 levels of the Fund and the
underlying allocations in which the Fund is invested, proportional to each of
the underlying allocation's weighting in the Fund's portfolio. The data is
unaudited and has been calculated by BHCM using the same methodology as that
used in the most recent audited financial statements of the Fund and any
underlying funds (as the case may be). The relative size of each category is
subject to change. Sum may not total 100% due to rounding.
Performance Level 1: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are
Review priced using unadjusted quoted prices in active markets that are accessible
at the measurement date for identical, unrestricted assets or liabilities.
Level 2: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are
priced using either (i) quoted prices that are identical or similar in
markets that are not active or (ii) model-derived valuations for which all
significant inputs are observable, either directly or indirectly in active
markets.
Level 3: This represents the level of assets in the portfolio which are
priced or valued using inputs that are both significant to the fair value
measurement and are not observable directly or indirectly in an active
market.
The information in this section has been provided to BHM by BHCM.
In August 2018 gains came from directional and relative value trading of
European interest rates and to a lesser extent from EM FX positioning. Small
losses were generated in directional trading of interest rates and equity
indices.
The performance review and attributions are derived from data calculated by
BHCM, based on total performance data for each period provided by the Fund's
administrator (IFS) and risk data provided by BHCM, as at 31 August 2018.
Performance by Asset Class
Monthly, quarterly and annual contribution (%) to the performance of BHM USD
Shares (net of fees and expenses) by asset class as at 31 August 2018
2018 Rates FX Commodity Credit Equity Total
August 0.92 0.21 -0.01 0.01 -0.23 0.90
2018
Q1 2018 0.93 -0.20 0.01 -0.06 -0.07 0.58
Q2 2018 8.54 0.46 -0.02 0.02 -0.02 8.94
QTD 2018 1.54 0.65 -0.06 -0.10 -0.22 1.82
YTD 2018 11.24 0.90 -0.07 -0.13 -0.31 11.57
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Methodology and Definition of Contribution to Performance:
Attribution by asset class is produced at the instrument level, with
adjustments made based on risk estimates.
The above asset classes are categorised as follows:
"Rates": interest rates markets
"FX": FX forwards and options
"Commodity": commodity futures and options
"Credit": corporate and asset-backed indices, bonds and CDS
"Equity": equity markets including indices and other derivatives
Performance by Strategy Group
Monthly, quarterly and annual contribution (%) to the performance of BHM USD
Shares (net of fees and expenses) by strategy group as at 31 August 2018
2018 Macro Systematic Rates FX Equity Credit EMG Commodity Total
August -1.04 0.14 1.10 0.44 -0.00 0.01 0.25 -0.00 0.90
2018
Q1 2018 0.87 0.02 -0.46 -0.09 -0.00 -0.03 0.28 -0.00 0.58
Q2 2018 4.29 0.05 2.91 0.34 -0.00 -0.06 1.33 -0.00 8.94
QTD 2018 -1.02 0.06 1.81 0.48 -0.00 0.01 0.48 -0.00 1.82
YTD 2018 4.13 0.13 4.29 0.72 -0.00 -0.07 2.09 -0.00 11.57
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Methodology and Definition of Contribution to Performance:
Strategy Group attribution is approximate and has been derived by allocating
each trader book in the Fund to a single category. In cases where a trader
book has activity in more than one category, the most relevant category has
been selected.
The above strategies are categorised as follows:
"Macro": multi-asset global markets, mainly directional (for the Fund, the
majority of risk in this category is in rates)
"Systematic": rules-based futures trading
"Rates": developed interest rates markets
"FX": global FX forwards and options
"Equity": global equity markets including indices and other derivatives
Manager Update
"Credit": corporate and asset-backed indices, bonds and CDS
"EMG": global emerging markets
"Commodity": liquid commodity futures and options
Manager's The Manager anticipates that with effect from 1 October the Fund will
Market Review continue to access the trading expertise of Fash Golchin ("FG") via an
and Outlook initial allocation of approximately $300 million to a new fund, Brevan Howard
FG Macro Master Fund Limited (the "FG Macro Fund"). The FG Macro Fund will
also provide external investors with the opportunity to invest in a fund that
is directly managed by FG, whilst giving FG the potential to manage
additional external assets without the need to manage two pools of capital.
Immediately following the Fund's investment in the FG Macro Fund, it is
anticipated that the Fund's holdings in other Brevan Howard-managed funds
will be approximately 75% of the Fund's assets.
The information in this section has been provided to BHM by BHCM
US
Economic momentum was well maintained in August. Employment rose briskly, the
unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, and wages jumped by more than expected.
Real GDP growth in Q3 was tracking somewhere above 3% at an annual rate,
after having surged 4.2% in Q2. Consumption and investment are pacing solid
growth, with wide swings in trade and inventories partly reflecting timing
shifts related to the imposition of tariffs. The latest data on manufacturing
point to vibrant activity. Although there are many anecdotes about how
tariffs are disrupting supply chains and raising prices, there is almost no
evidence of such disruptions at the macro level. Meanwhile, housing and
automotive, two traditionally interest-rate sensitive sectors, are in the
doldrums.
Headline and core personal consumption expenditure ("PCE") inflation over the
last year were near 2% in July. After having moved up around the start of the
year, inflation has settled into a channel close to the Federal Reserve's
("Fed") 2% target.
Given the strength of the economy, the Fed is expected to deliver further
gradual rates hikes in September and December. Beyond that, the roadmap is
less clear. In his Jackson Hole speech, Chairman Powell emphasised the degree
of uncertainty about some of the key markers for policy makers, like the
neutral interest rate. Instead of following an approach guided by abstract
economic theory, Chairman Powell appears to be more comfortable taking an
empirical approach rooted in 'risk management'. He will likely feel his way
forward based on how the economy performs, given all the cross-currents.
Elsewhere in Washington, trade policy took two different tracks, marked by
constructive negotiations with Mexico and Canada that suggest a new agreement
on the North American Free Trade Agreement ("NAFTA") is likely, and the
ratcheting up of tariffs on China.
UK
After having shrugged off the predominantly weather induced slow-down at the
start of the year, economic activity has returned to its earlier moderate
pace. However, the uncertainty around Brexit as well as the moderation of
activity in Europe may pose some challenges. According to the Office of
National Statistics, the economy grew 0.6% 3m/3m in July, still supported by
robust growth within the services sector (contributing 0.45ppts). There was
also a rebound in construction activity, which contributed around 0.2ppts,
after having detracted 0.2ppts previously. Meanwhile, industrial output has
continued to act as a modest drag with manufacturing little changed over the
past three months. Currently, GDP is expected to grow at 0.5% q/q in Q3, up
slightly from the 0.4% seen in Q2. Looking ahead, business sentiment within
manufacturing has moderated further, reflecting both a slow-down in activity
in Europe, as well as increased uncertainty around the prospects of a no-deal
Brexit. Surveys for manufacturing export orders have experienced the largest
single month decline since 2011, and point to a contraction in manufacturing
export orders. Business sentiment for the services industry (which accounts
for 80% of the economy) continues to move sideways. Should business sentiment
continue to hold, GDP is expected to continue to grow at an average pace of
around 0.4% q/q, enough to absorb the little remaining slack in the economy.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate continues to hit new multi-decade lows,
reaching 4.0% in June, the lowest rate since 1975. Robust employment should
support consumption; for example retail sales have grown 3.7% y/y in July, up
from the lows of 1% last year. However, the softness in the housing market
may still act as a drag; although house price growth remains positive at the
national level, activity indicators remain modest. Moreover, tighter
conditions around consumer lending may also act as a headwind to consumption.
Overall, the tightness in the labour market should continue to put upward
pressure on wage growth. Excluding bonuses, wage growth is averaging a pace
of 2.9% 3m/12m, remaining near post-crisis highs. Wage pressure should in
turn cause inflation to pick up; headline inflation rose 0.1ppts to 2.5% y/y
in July, whilst core inflation was unchanged at 1.9%.
The combination of moderate activity, a tight labour market, and gradually
building wage pressure has impacted the Bank of England's projection of
inflation, which remains above 2% for most of the projection horizon. It was
in this light that the Monetary Policy Committee ("MPC") voted unanimously to
raise the official bank rate 0.25ppts to 0.75% in August. Following this, the
MPC voted to keep the policy rate unchanged at the September meeting. On the
one hand, the minutes had highlighted the further improvements made in the
labour market. However, it also highlighted the increased concern among
businesses around the prospects of a 'no-deal' Brexit, as well as the
moderation in external growth. The key message from the MPC's statement was
left broadly unchanged: "were the economy to continue to develop broadly in
line with [the Bank's] Inflation Report projections, an ongoing tightening of
monetary policy over the forecast period would be appropriate to return
inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon. Any future
increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited
extent."
Of course, the state of the Brexit negotiations remains a key risk to the
economic outlook. According to the latest White Paper, the UK aims to achieve
a post-Brexit "association agreement" with the EU, including a "free-trade
area" for goods and a looser arrangement for financial services. With regards
to timing, both the UK and the EU are still hoping to have a deal in October.
However, this is looking increasingly unlikely as there are more and more
headlines suggesting the possibility of an emergency EU summit meeting in
November.
EMU
EMU economic indicators suggest a rate of expansion which remained sluggish
in Q3, and a pace not dissimilar from the one recorded in the first half of
the year. In particular, in July industrial production, excluding
construction, fell by a larger than expected 0.8% m/m, to a level which is
0.8 points lower than in Q2, and points to a contraction of manufacturing
output in the current quarter. The contraction is partly due to a meaningful
drop of the production of automobiles, a sector affected by changes in
regulation, more pronounced in Germany, Italy and Spain. In August evidence
from business surveys showed some tentative indications of bottoming out,
with the EMU Composite Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI") rising by 0.1
point, but only to a level lower than the Q2 average, which is consistent
with the subdued rhythm of GDP expansion. The headline Harmonised Index of
Consumer Prices ("HICP") fell from 2.14% y/y to 2.04% y/y. Core inflation
also fell from 1.07% y/y to 0.96% y/y, a 5 month low, and to a level quite
troubling from the European Central Bank's ("ECB") perspective, currently
showing no sign of convergence towards its definition of price stability.
Despite relatively dismal macroeconomic developments, both on the growth and
the price side, the ECB revised its projections for GDP and core inflation
only slightly downward, and the Governing Council seemed to remain confident
that underlying activity and inflation trends were moving along a
self-sustained process towards the ECB threshold. This optimistic reading of
the economy appears to have been motivated by the ECB's intention to proceed
with the pre-announced reduction of the pace of monthly net purchases of
bonds, from EUR30bn to EUR15bn from October to December, and the conditional end
from January 2019 onward. The bar to stop this process appears quite high.
Enquiries Next year the fine tuning of monetary policy will likely depend solely on the
decision concerning interest rates and their forward guidance.
Japan
The recent Bank of Japan ("BoJ") meeting was a non-event, with policy and
guidance unchanged. The BoJ is still evaluating the fallout from widening the
bands in which it will allow the 10 year rate to trade, from ±10bps to ±
20bps. The 10 year rate moved up a bit and is now running a few bps above the
previous range at around 0.12%. After depreciating somewhat against the
dollar over the spring, the yen appears to have stabilized in the 111-112
range.
Dialogue also revolved around a couple of topics outside of underlying trends
in demand, and beyond direct control of the bank. Tariff uncertainty appears
to be a concern to the BoJ, Japanese businesses and consumers. There are some
hints that President Trump may direct some pressure towards Japan in order to
bring them to bilateral talks. A multilateral agreement is unlikely; the best
case scenario for Japan is likely some combination of talks and US bandwidth
taken up elsewhere. Japan is also affected by tensions between the US and
China. On the one hand, there are reports that Japanese companies are
shifting some production home to avoid US tariffs. On the other hand,
supply-chain disruptions likely will lead to some minor hiccups for
producers. The typhoon that struck Osaka and the earthquake in northern Japan
are likely to affect some high-frequency data and hamper the tourism industry
but have no tangible long-lasting impact.
Recent activity data have been mixed, but overall do not change the view of a
decent pace of demand. Q2 real GDP was revised up, to show a 3% gain at an
annual rate. Solid contributions came from household consumption and business
capital fixed capital formation. Arithmetically, the second quarter would
have been stronger had imports not climbed as much. That is not necessarily a
sign of weakness though; strong domestic demand typically leads to some
additional imports. The Economy Watchers survey improved 2.1 points in
August. At 48.7, it is at a reasonable level, though down from the end of
last year. Industrial production slipped 0.2% in July. It has bounced around
recently without any real direction.
Inflation data has improved a bit of late, not sufficiently to allow the BoJ
to declare victory, but it is improving. National western core prices edged
up 0.1% in July, which reverses the previous month's decline. More
importantly, Tokyo core-core prices rose 0.2% in August after rising 0.1% in
both June and July.
The Company Secretary
Northern Trust International Fund Administration Services (Guernsey) Limited
bhfa@ntrs.com
+44 (0) 1481 745736
Important Legal Information and Disclaimer
BH Macro Limited ("BHM") is a feeder fund investing in Brevan Howard Master
Fund Limited (the "Fund"). Brevan Howard Capital Management LP ("BHCM") has
supplied certain information herein regarding BHM's and the Fund's performance
and outlook.
The material relating to BHM and the Fund included in this report is provided
for information purposes only, does not constitute an invitation or offer to
subscribe for or purchase shares in BHM or the Fund and is not intended to
constitute "marketing" of either BHM or the Fund as such term is understood for
the purposes of the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive as it has
been implemented in states of the European Economic Area. This material is not
intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.
Information and opinions presented in this material relating to BHM and the
Fund have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but
none of BHM, the Fund or BHCM make any representation as to their accuracy or
completeness. Any estimates may be subject to error and significant
fluctuation, especially during periods of high market volatility or disruption.
Any estimates should be taken as indicative values only and no reliance should
be placed on them. Estimated results, performance or achievements may
materially differ from any actual results, performance or achievements. Except
as required by applicable law, BHM, the Fund and BHCM expressly disclaim any
obligations to update or revise such estimates to reflect any change in
expectations, new information, subsequent events or otherwise.
Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor in BHM
and may be subject to change in the future. Returns may increase or decrease as
a result of currency fluctuations.
You should note that, if you invest in BHM, your capital will be at risk and
you may therefore lose some or all of any amount that you choose to invest.
This material is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as,
investment advice. All investments are subject to risk. You are advised to seek
expert legal, financial, tax and other professional advice before making any
investment decisions.
THE VALUE OF INVESTMENTS CAN GO DOWN AS WELL AS UP. YOU MAY NOT GET BACK THE
AMOUNT ORIGINALLY INVESTED AND YOU MAY LOSE ALL OF YOUR INVESTMENT. PAST
PERFORMANCE IS NOT A RELIABLE INDICATOR OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Risk Factors
Acquiring shares in BHM may expose an investor to a significant risk of losing
all of the amount invested. Any person who is in any doubt about investing in
BHM (and therefore gaining exposure to the Fund) should consult an authorised
person specialising in advising on such investments. Any person acquiring
shares in BHM must be able to bear the risks involved. These include the
following:
* The Fund is speculative and involves substantial risk.
* The Fund will be leveraged and will engage in speculative investment
practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. The Fund may invest in
illiquid securities.
* Past results of the Fund's investment managers are not necessarily indicative
of future performance of the Fund, and the Fund's performance may be volatile.
* An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment.
* The Fund's investment managers have total investment and trading authority
over the Fund, and the Fund is dependent upon the services of the investment
managers.
* Investments in the Fund are subject to restrictions on withdrawal or
redemption and should be considered illiquid. There is no secondary market for
investors' interests in the Fund and none is expected to develop.
* The investment managers' incentive compensation, fees and expenses may offset
the Fund's trading and investment profits.
* The Fund is not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information
to investors with respect to individual investments.
* The Fund is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds.
* A portion of the trades executed for the Fund may take place on foreign
markets.
* The Fund and its investment managers are subject to conflicts of interest.
* The Fund is dependent on the services of certain key personnel, and, were
certain or all of them to become unavailable, the Fund may prematurely
terminate.
* The Fund's managers will receive performance-based compensation. Such
compensation may give such managers an incentive to make riskier investments
than they otherwise would.
* The Fund may make investments in securities of issuers in emerging markets.
Investment in emerging markets involve particular risks, such as less strict
market regulation, increased likelihood of severe inflation, unstable
currencies, war, expropriation of property, limitations on foreign investments,
increased market volatility, less favourable or unstable tax provisions,
illiquid markets and social and political upheaval.
The above summary risk factors do not purport to be a complete description of
the relevant risks of an investment in shares of BHM or the Fund and therefore
reference should be made to publicly available documents and information.
END
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