CIBC World Markets report predicts natural gas prices will rise along with summer temperatures in North America
May 09 2006 - 1:47PM
PR Newswire (US)
TORONTO, May 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Consumers who benefited
from cheaper home heating costs this past winter due to record warm
temperatures are likely to need those savings to pay their
electricity bills this summer, states a new report from CIBC World
Markets. CIBC World Markets' Monthly Indicators report released
today predicts that natural gas prices will rebound as the summer
heats up and demand for electricity to fuel air conditioners rises.
"While record warm temperatures this past winter put money back in
Canadians' pockets we are likely to put it all back into our air
conditioners this summer," says Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist and
Chief Strategist, CIBC World Markets. The report discusses the
impact of climate change on natural gas prices, given that natural
gas is now the fastest-growing and most dominant source of growth
in electric power generation. The warmest winter on record in North
America in 2005/06 saw Henry Hub natural gas prices plummet by 40
per cent, into the range of $7.00 to $8.00/mbtu. For roughly 80 per
cent of the world's population living in the northern hemisphere,
2005 was the hottest year since temperatures were first recorded in
1880. As well, the global average surface temperature in 2005
reached a record high. Re-analysis of satellite observations of
temperature trends in the troposphere indicates that air
temperatures have been warming about 15 per cent faster than was
previously thought. "While there continues to be a debate about
causation, there is no longer any doubt that the climate is
changing, and changing rapidly," notes Rubin. "Another hot summer
in 2006 will likely set a new record for both home cooling days and
'scorchers' - or days in the U.S. when maximum temperatures are way
above normal," says Rubin. "We expect that this will push North
American electrical demand to new record highs this summer, and in
the process pull natural gas prices up to $10/mbtu." Total
electricity demand per American household rose 25 per cent between
1992 and 2005 - boosted notably by a 45 per cent increase in energy
consumption for air conditioning. The commercial sector is
currently consuming 66 per cent more electricity than in 1992,
largely due to a dazzling 95 per cent increase in energy usage for
air conditioning. Over the last thirty years, the share of American
households with air conditioning has doubled. Among the almost 80
per cent of American households that have air conditioning,
two-thirds own the much more energy consuming central air-cooling
systems. These air conditioning systems are working increasingly
harder due to rising summer temperatures and the rapid growth in
the average home size, which is now 40 per cent larger than in the
1970s. The complete CIBC World Markets Monthly Indicators report is
available at
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/mimay06.pdf.
CIBC World Markets is the wholesale banking arm of CIBC, providing
a range of integrated credit and capital markets products,
investment banking, and merchant banking to clients in key
financial markets in North America and around the world. We deliver
innovative full capital solutions to growth- oriented companies and
are active in all capital markets. We offer advisory expertise
across a wide range of industries and provide top-ranked research
for our corporate, government and institutional investor clients.
DATASOURCE: CIBC CONTACT: Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist and Chief
Strategist, Managing Director, CIBC World Markets, (416) 594-7357,
or Susan McDougall, CIBC Communications and Public Affairs at (416)
980-4047, ; Archived images on this organization are searchable
through CNW Photo Archive website at http://photos.newswire.ca/.
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