By Nick Godt
News that the rate of job losses slowed more than expected in
July might help U.S. stocks continue on their merry way higher next
week, as the Federal Reserve will hold a two-day meeting whose
conclusion is likely to reflect current market confidence about the
economy.
"In the short term, it's the all clear," said Ken Tower, chief
market strategist at Quantitative Analysis Services. "The recovery
is in place and investors are regaining confidence."
On Wednesday, the central bank is widely expected to keep
interest rates at zero and to reaffirm its commitment to "employ
all available tools to promote economic recovery and price
stability."
"The economic assessment will probably be a shade more upbeat,"
said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a
note.
On Friday, stocks rallied to fresh highs after the government
reported the economy shed a smaller-than-forecast 247,000 jobs in
July, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell back to
9.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) roe 114 points, or 1.2%,
to 9,370, its highest close since early November.
The S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 13 points, or 1.3%, to 1,010,
while the Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) rose 27 points, or 1.4%, to
2,000.
For the week, the Dow gained 2.2%, the S&P rose 2.3%, and
the Nasdaq was up 1.1%.
Since hitting lows in March, the S&P 500, has now rallied
more than 50%. The only interruption in the rally came during
several weeks of selling in late June and early July, ahead of
earnings season.
"Has it been too much? At some point, we'll get a correction but
I don't see it until September or October," Tower said. "What we've
seen since mid-July is that the doubters are being dragged into the
market."
The jobs report marks the second major positive surprise for
investors since early July, following much better-than-expected
earnings in the second-quarter reporting season.
With 427 of S&P 500 firms having already reported results,
73% have beat estimates, an unusually high number, according to
Thomson Financial. The long-term average percentage of companies
beating is 61%.
And companies have been beating estimates by an average of
13.8%, also an unusually high percentage, thanks in large part to
financial firms' results, including banks such as Bank of America
(BAC), Citigroup (C), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM).
Excluding the financial sector, firms have still topped
expectations by 6.5% on average.
Year-over-year, earnings are still down 28.3% but that's an
improvement from the 35.5% drop expected on July 1.
"Relative to expectations, it's been a good quarter," said John
Butters, earnings analyst at Thomson.
Retailers on tap
Next week, another 17 companies from the S&P 500 are
expected to report, including giant retailer Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)
on Thursday. On the same day, earnings are also expected from
Kohl's Corp. (KSS) and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN).
Ahead of this, Macy's (M) and Liz Claiborne (LIZ) are due to
report on Wednesday. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and JC Penney
(JCP) are due to report on Friday.
Away from retailers, EchoStar (SATSV) is due to report results
on Monday, and Applied Materials (AMAT) is due to report on
Tuesday.
Economy
The week's economic calendar will be relatively light, with
productivity numbers and unit labor costs for the second quarter
due on Tuesday, followed by U.S. trade figures for June. Thursday
will bring the usual tally of weekly jobless claims.