Gasoline demand in the U.S. and Europe is expected to fall through to 2020 due to the recession, climate change legislation and new refining capacity, a Total SA (TOT) executive said Monday.

"We are quite convinced at Total that in both regions...the consumption will decrease very sharply," Andre Tricoire, senior vice president of refining, said.

Speaking at Platts' European Refining Markets conference in Brussels, Tricoire said the decline in gasoline demand in the wake of the global economic slowdown is one of the biggest threats to European refiners, who are heavily reliant on gasoline exports to the U.S.

Europe's gasoline surplus could grow to 50 million metric tons a year in 2020, particularly if U.S. regulations to limit carbon dioxide emissions and raise vehicle efficiency further discourage gasoline consumption, he added.

Excess refining capacity is also expected to pressure refining margins in the short and medium term, he added, even though Total estimates that only 40% of announced new refinery projects will come online in the coming years.

Earlier this month, Total said it would shut its entire 137,000-barrel-a-day Dunkirk refinery in northern France in response to weak demand and slim refining margins.

Total also halted a crude distillation unit at its 331,000-barrel-a-day Normandy refinery in August due to poor refining economics.

While some analysts forecast a recovery in global oil demand around the end of the year, any pickup is likely to come from industrial activity in emerging markets rather than the mature economies of the U.S. and Europe.

According to David Wech, head of research at Vienna-based consultancy JBC Energy, gasoline consumption in North America and Europe is expected to contract through 2020 due to the growing use of ethanol, hybrid and electric cars, and improvements in energy efficiency.

More broadly, oil demand from the advanced economies of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will likely contract by 1 million barrels a day by 2014, after declining 4.4 million barrels a day since 2007, according to the group's energy watchdog.

Demand will stagnate in OECD countries due to market saturation, fuel substitution and greater efficiency, said David Martin, an analyst at the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

The bulk of global oil demand growth through 2014 will come from non-OECD countries' need for transport fuel, Martin added.

-By Lananh Nguyen, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20-7842-9479; lananh.nguyen@dowjones.com

(Adam Mitchell in Paris contributed to this report.)