Morgan Stanley ups 2012 Oil Forecast to $105
September 18 2009 - 4:00PM
PR Newswire (US)
LUXE: OTC-BB SINGAPORE, Sept. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Reuters
Last updated on Monday, Sep. 14, 2009 09:23AM EDT Morgan Stanley
has raised its forecast of U.S. crude oil price to $105 (U.S.) a
barrel in 2012 from $95 due to tightening spare capacity, the U.S.
bank said in a research note seen on Monday. It expected global
spare production capacity to stay ample through end-2010, before
declining in 2011 and reaching 2007/08-like tightness by 2012.
"Assuming that demand returns to growth, we see global spare
capacity back to 2007/08 levels by 2012, and getting even tighter
thereafter," Morgan Stanley said. "We believe that prices will need
to move higher to ration demand as the world struggles to find
enough supply," it said, adding that the research was based on the
bank's proprietary database of more than 460 fields expected to
come online through 2015. International benchmark U.S. crude
(CL-FT70.62-0.31-0.44%) peaked above $147 in July 2008 on strong
demand from emerging economies such as China. But the global
economic recession has curtailed energy demand and slashed oil
prices, which have traded around $68 to $71 a barrel over the last
week. Morgan Stanley assumes oil demand will fall by 2 million
barrels per day (bpd) this year, rebound by 1 million bpd in 2010
and then grow by just 1 per cent, it said. Post 2012, global
liquids production shows the potential to increase to what the bank
believes will be a maximum achievable level of roughly 92 million
bpd, it said. Even if this record level is achievable, global
demand growth at 1 per cent annually would still leave the market
tight, it added. There was considerable downside to much of the
post-2013 production schedule, the report said, citing political
wrangling over Project Kuwait, oil laws in Brazil, militant attacks
in Nigeria and an array of issues with Iraq, Iran and Venezuela
that will put global spare capacity at risk. Lux Energy Corporation
Lux Energy is an oil and gas production and exploration company
focusing on developing oil and gas resources in North America.
Forward-Looking Statements Except for the historical information
contained herein, the matters discussed in this press release are
forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially
from those described in forward-looking statements and are subject
to risks and uncertainties. See Lux Energy's filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission which identify specific factors
that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from
those described in the forward-looking statements. DATASOURCE: LUX
Energy Corporation CONTACT: please visit
http://www.luxenergycorp.com/ or contact Shane Broesky at:
Corporate Office, Suite 1950 - 777 8th Ave S.W., Calgary, Alberta,
T2P 3R5, Canada; Investor Relations Manager, TF: (866) 581-3484,
Copyright