--Spot prices for steelmaking ingredient fall to lowest since
December 2009
--Iron-ore supply outstrips demand, Brazilian mining institute
says
--Europe's weak steel market contributing factor, the Steel
Index says
(Adds Vale expecting upturn in ore prices in September in 12th
paragraph.)
By Diana Kinch
RIO DE JANEIRO--Spot market iron-ore prices fell again Wednesday
despite news that steel production in China, the biggest
iron-ore-consuming nation, continued to rise in early August.
The price for iron ore fines, a standard industry product, with
62% iron content slid to $104 a metric ton for delivery into China,
London price provider the Steel Index, or TSI, reported. This was
down from $106 on Tuesday, and was the lowest since December 2009,
when the market slumped due to the global economic crisis.
Chinese steel output--normally considered the barometer for ore
prices--rose 1.05% on an average daily basis, however, in the first
10 days of August, according to Chinese data.
Iron-ore spot market prices have declined consistently in recent
weeks, from a 2012 peak of $149 a ton in April, because of high
inventories of the steelmaking raw material at Chinese steel mills,
some of which are taking advantage of slower steel market growth to
carry out maintenance stops.
World steel output has declined in two of the last three months,
mainly because of lower European production, while iron-ore output
has grown in Australia and Brazil, the two major exporting nations,
following climatic problems that curbed production early in the
year.
"There's more supply than demand," said Cinthia Rodrigues,
economic data manager at Brazilian mining institute Ibram. "There's
capacity coming on stream which may not be viable at current price
levels."
Analysts and directors of Brazilian mining company Vale SA
(VALE, VALE5.BR) said in May they viewed $120 a ton as a "floor"
for spot iron-ore prices as some Chinese mining companies are
unable to produce profitably at below that price level.
In addition to higher exports from Australia, Brazil, other
Latin American countries and Africa, the lifting of a ban on
iron-ore production from Karnataka in India, which typically
increases its ore exports after the monsoon season, has also played
a role in pricing, Barclays Capital said in a research report
Wednesday. The change in Indian strategy with the Karnataka restart
poses a "medium-term supply risk," which is cutting into margins,
according to Barclays analyst Leonardo Correa.
A dose of negative sentiment, stemming from concerns over
Chinese economic growth and the European crisis, has also weighed
heavily on ore prices, which have sunk to below analysts'
expectations. The soft European steel market is a factor in market
attitude, as well as Chinese steel coil export prices, which
recently collapsed to a 30-month low, according to TSI steel
analyst Vaseem Karbhari. The analyst noted in a recent report that
European steel coil prices have been declining since April and the
current situation is exacerbated by the holiday season, but that
"an August recovery seems unlikely."
Ibram's Ms. Rodrigues said the current weakness in the iron-ore
market "is more than anything a reflection of the European
crisis."
Ms. Rodrigues noted, however, that market analysts haven't yet
revised downward their expectations for average annual spot
iron-ore prices of around $150 to $160 a ton this year, which
indicates prices are expected to recover. "We could see an upturn
in 30 to 40 days, especially if we get positive economic news from
Europe," she said.
Vale said in an emailed statement Wednesday it expects ore
prices to improve in September.
Iron-ore prices plunged from a peak of $181 a ton in early
September 2011 after the government in China, which consumes over
60% of the world's entire iron-ore supplies, introduced measures to
curb credit amid inflationary fears as the property market
overheated. This put "an enormous brake" on the construction
industry, directly affecting the steel and iron-ore sectors,
Goldman Sachs analyst Marcelo Aguiar said in May.
This year's average iron-ore price will work out to be lower
than the $168 a ton seen in 2011, TSI said.
Write to Diana Kinch at diana.kinch@dowjones.com
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