Wheat Leads Grains to Big Losses -- Daily Grain Highlights
January 02 2024 - 3:31PM
Dow Jones News
By Paulo Trevisani
--Wheat for March delivery fell 3.4% to $6.06 3/4 a bushel on
the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, leading a broader decline in
grains futures in the first trading session of 2024.
--Soybeans for March delivery fell 1.9% to $12.73 2/4 a
bushel.
--Corn for March delivery fell 1.4% to $4.63 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Bad Start: Grain futures started 2024 with a loss, led by a
sharp decline in wheat. "Wheat markets overall have shrugged off
the rise in intensity of Russian [and] Ukrainian attacks,"
AgResource said in a note. Rainfall in Brazil over the past few
days is expected to reduce harvest losses, causing soybeans and
corn futures to slide. "Still-thin volume has exacerbated flat
price movement," AgResource said. The firm added that Argentine
grains production is recovering, but it remains unclear whether
producers will sell the new supply as the country struggles with
rampant inflation.
Russian Wheat: "Higher Russia supplies of wheat is viewed as
limiting the upside," Total Farm Marketing's Naomi Blohm said in a
note. "Continued escalation in the Middle East needs to be
monitored," she said. The USDA said wheat export inspection
declined to 273,671 metric tons last week from 461,431 tons the
week before, while the accumulated market year total remains lower
than a year earlier.
INSIGHT
Brazilian Rain: Rainfall in Brazil is expected to bring some
relief to crops battered by a severe drought, while markets
struggle to pinpoint how much has been already lost. Still, the
recent rainfall weighed down prices "after Brazil saw as expected
rain over the weekend," Marex's Terry Reilly said in a note.
Shaky Year: Grain futures are likely to be volatile in 2024,
"providing opportunities for all sides of the marketplace,"
AgResource analysts said in a note. The new year began with price
weakness across the grain complex, driven in part by rainfall in
Brazil beneficial to local crops. But it remains unclear how long
the benign weather will last and Brazilian soy estimates "continue
to erode," AgResource said. The firm added: "The biggest risk in
grain markets in the long run is spring weather adversity in major
exporting wheat markets...and a premature exit or Brazil's rainy
season in Mar/early Apr."
AHEAD
--Cal-Maine Foods will release its fiscal second-quarter 2024
earnings report at 4:05 p.m. ET Wednesday.
--Conagra Foods will release its fiscal second-quarter 2024
earnings report at 7:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks
report at 11 a.m. ET Thursday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30
a.m. ET Friday.
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report
at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 02, 2024 15:16 ET (20:16 GMT)
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