Airfinity US RSV vaccine market estimate cut by 64% from $4.7bn to $1.7bn a year by 2030 following recommendations for single lifetime shot for elderly people
July 24 2024 - 2:00AM
Airfinity has reduced its sales projections for vaccines against
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) for older adults in the US from
$4.7bn per year to $1.7bn by 2030.
It follows recommendations from the CDC advisory committee ACIP
for the vaccines to be offered only as a single lifetime dose for
older adults. Following the rollout of RSV vaccines last year, the
committee was hesitant to make any decision on potential booster
doses, due to concerns about the risk versus benefit of additional
doses.
In 2023, the market revenues in the US totalled ~$2.4bn.
Airfinity’s estimate framework expects 2024 revenues to decline
slightly to $2.2bn. This also considers the new ACIP guidelines
narrowing the age eligibility criteria.
Before the new recommendations, everyone aged 60 and above were
offered the RSV vaccine in the US; the new recommendations are
narrowed to all those over 75 years of age and individuals deemed
to be at high risk aged over 60 years. This reduces the estimated
eligible population by 44% to 46 million. The US market for RSV
vaccines for the elderly could have generated sales of $3.7bn in
2024 under the previously broader age-group recommendation.
Additionally, the anticipated recommendation for high risk 50-59
year-olds to receive a vaccine ahead of the 2024 winter season was
delayed by the ACIP, as more safety and ‘other’ data would be
needed. Airfinity estimates that the delay in ACIP recommendation
roughly amounts to ~$300mn in lost revenue for GSK. These losses
are even more impactful, as GSK used a Priority Review Voucher,
commonly valued between ~$20-100mn to accelerate regulatory review
of the label expansion, likely in an aim to launch to this
additional population ahead of the 2024/2025 season. In
2023, before the recent ACIP guidelines, Airfinity estimated the
market would generate sales of $4.7bn a year by 2030 in the US,
assuming boosters were offered annually. Subsequently new GSK
efficacy data was released showing that revaccination after 12
months does not increase efficacy compared to single dose, as well
as data on the potential risk Guillain-Barré Syndrome associated
with additional doses.
However future dosing recommendations could change as long-term
efficacy and safety data emerge. Applying scenario frameworks for a
booster every two or three years, the US market could increase in
value to $6.6bn or $5.2bn respectively.
Airfinity’s RSV Lead Isabella Huettner says, “The ACIP
recommendations will likely stunt revenue growth in the US market
unless new data can support the benefit of booster shots. Global
rollout will offer additional revenue opportunities for GSK, Pfizer
and Moderna, with the UK, Canada and other EU5 countries expected
to launch vaccination programmes for the first time this winter.
Nevertheless, the trend appears to be for a single lifetime vaccine
recommendation for those over 75 year olds, as was recently
confirmed by the UK.
“US market share estimates are difficult to anticipate at this
point with different scenarios being possible. Based on current
data, GSK appears to be most likely to capture the majority of the
market in the long term, due to promising efficacy and durability.
And, while the safety concerns remain until more data become
available, GSK appears to have lower Guillain-Barré Syndrome rates
than Pfizer. It will be interesting to see how Moderna’s vaccine
will perform; while durability is lower with only ~50% efficacy
after 18 months, as of now no vaccine-attributable cases of
Guillain-Barré Syndrome have been observed with the shot. Should
additional data confirm improved safety signals for Moderna’s shot,
the vaccine could be favoured by some healthcare providers over
other options, despite lower durability.”
Airfinity will update and adjust our estimates as new data
becomes available.
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- Estimated reduction in revenue for the US older adult market,
based on updated ACIP recommendations in 2024
- Estimated revenue for the US older adult market in 2030, based
on different booster scenarios
Sarah Harper
Airfinity
07773659099
press@airfinity.com