Wolters Kluwer: 100% of leading US economists expect Fed rate cut this week; Vast majority predicting 25bps reduction; 17% forecasting cut of 50bps
September 17 2024 - 1:04PM
Business Wire
Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators
also shows 63% of economists predicting that AI will disrupt labor
markets in three to five years
Wolters Kluwer has published the September 2024 issue of its
Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, which finds all of the
panel’s 37 leading economists anticipating a Fed rate cut this
week. The Blue Chip consensus also places a 31% probability that
the U.S. will enter a recession in the next 12-months – up just
slightly from 29% in June.
Since 1976, Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators has
been the leading monthly forecast sourced from an expert panel of
economists that are employed by some of America's largest and most
respected manufacturers, banks, insurance companies.
Highlights include:
- A majority (86%) of economists forecast a September rate cut
equating to 25 basis points (bps). Only 17% expect a cut of
50bps.
- The consensus forecast calls for a 25bps cut at each of the
three remaining Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings this
year – a total of 76bps. Additionally, economists anticipate 117bps
of rate cuts spanning all of 2025.
- Economists forecast that the unemployment rate will rise to
4.4% next quarter – the highest since October 2021 – with little
change expected in 2025.
- A significant majority (97%) of economists believe that AI will
eventually disrupt labor markets, increasing demand in some sectors
while reducing demand in others. Most (63%) also believe that
change will occur in the next three to five years.
Each month’s Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights the
predictions of each individual panel member as well as a consensus
– or average – forecast for the direction of variables such as real
gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index and the
unemployment rate.
For more information about Wolters Kluwer, please visit:
www.wolterskluwer.com
About Wolters Kluwer
Wolters Kluwer (EURONEXT: WKL) is a global leader in
information, software solutions and services for professionals in
healthcare; tax and accounting; financial and corporate compliance;
legal and regulatory; corporate performance and ESG. We help our
customers make critical decisions every day by providing expert
solutions that combine deep domain knowledge with technology and
services.
Wolters Kluwer reported 2023 annual revenues of €5.6 billion.
The group serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains
operations in over 40 countries, and employs approximately 21,400
people worldwide. The company is headquartered in Alphen aan den
Rijn, the Netherlands.
For more information, visit www.wolterskluwer.com, follow us on
LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240917415642/en/
Frank Ready Manager, External Communications Legal &
Regulatory Wolters Kluwer Office: 717-205-3647 Email:
Frank.Ready@wolterskluwer.com