Registration Strip Icon for default Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.

Alpesh Patel
Alpesh Patel's columns :
06/04/2004Not bad at all
06/01/2004May was better than April, hows about June then?
05/21/2004Broader Market View
05/14/2004Interest Rates or GDP?
04/30/2004The Run Up To May
04/23/2004Some Big Picture Views
04/16/2004Growth Spurt or Splutter
04/13/2004The interest in Interest rates : beware and prepare.
04/07/2004Pick a Direction Already
03/26/2004After Gordon's Words
03/24/2004Hidden Opportunities
03/10/2004Hidden Opportunities and Big Momentum
02/26/2004So Much Uncertainty
01/13/2004The Resolutions
01/02/2004The Year's High
12/22/2003Slow down or Ramp up?
12/16/2003Xmas Rally or Not?
12/09/2003That good news is bad for the markets
11/27/2003It's not Christmas Yet
11/13/2003Now they have risen
11/07/2003From here until rate rises
10/30/2003The Best Advice from now until end Dec
09/29/2003Lessons in shorting
08/29/2003One Last Throw of the Dice
08/26/2003To hot in the kitchen. and everywhere else

« EARLIEST ‹ PrevNext › LATEST »
Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls
Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

Big Week

10/31/2004

I write this before the US election results. I think there is a more than 50% chance we do not know on November 3rd who is the President because of legal challenges. If that happens the uncertainty should push the markets lower. If we do get an unequivocal Bush victory we will almost certainly see a sharp move up. The point is, for those who trade options or 'OCO' (one cancels other where if the price moves up you go long (see the jargon buster at the end of this column) and if it moves down you go short), this week is ideal.

I am a reactive not a predictive trader. I wait for the price to move in a particular direction before I make my move.

Away from the elections looking at US earnings 79 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings. Operating profit is up 14 percent from the same period a year ago, below the 31 percent gain shown in the second quarter and the first quarter's 27 percent.

More importantly, a total of 64 percent of earnings have come in above expectations, 16 percent have matched and 20 percent have missed according to Thomson research. Companies are beating estimates by 2.9 percent, in line with the long-term average of 3 percent. The company's negative-to-positive ratio stands at 1.6 for the fourth quarter, meaning there have been 1.6 negative pre-announcements for every positive one. The long term average is 1.8.

The bottom line: don't look at earnings to be the driving force for the market. Back to the President.

Takeover Bids

With the Alan Leighton speculation over Sainsbury, here is my list of bid targets: Glaxo, Royal & Sun or Prudential, Unilever, ITV, BT. I know, I know, it is unthinkable companies.

Drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh@tradermind.com if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better' posted to you.

Value-Growth

On my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth, the following names come up. Remember they are for a 6 month outlook. SABMiller, Findel, Hitachi (back on after a few weeks off), DTZ Holdings, Hunting.

Crazy Small Stock

These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include Character Group, Dawson International, GB Group, Alterian.


Alpesh B Patel, author of “Alpesh Patel on Stock Futures” available from the ADVFN bookstore.

Your Recent History