Pick a Direction Already
04/07/2004
In case you had noticed we have a market where neither buyers or sellers are willing to stock their necks out. Trading in a range is something we're happy to do. Look at the falls in the FTSE 100 in the second half of January, the ride up in February and then shorting again for falls in March.
Now approaching April and the should we look for gains to take us to 4600? Admittedly there seems little cause to expect anything above 4600 for now or anything below 4200 either. It's only at those respective boundaries that buyers and sellers do actually come in and take a view - hence our range 'boundedness'.
Value-Growth
Fine, so we'll deal with that and act accordingly. What do we find in terms of stocks exhibiting value and growth on my radar? These are companies I am tracking for revenue growth, earnings growth, as well as value based on stock price to earnings and price to earnings growth too.
Some new names have crept on, beyond the usual property ones. Brandon Hire is anew one. This should not drop below 95p if my analysis is correct. Bristol and West Investments is up there but this is a case where I override the radar. The stock just is not showing enough activity for it to be interesting.
BSS Group is another one I have never mentioned and is on the radar. Now, watch for this to stay above 610p is the uptrend is in place. Ennstone enters the radar, but like Bristol and West is too questionable for me.
Hitachi Capital is picking up again and should not drop below 190p if I am correct and should look to 220p.
But what of the momentum plays on the bigger stocks? ITV is picking up steam. Watch for 145p. BAe systems is resuming upwards. We're talking about a 2 week to 1 month outlook here, so it really is short-term trading before the next cycle of down turns as profit-taking moves in takes place.
By the way, I am holding a full day seminar, so email me if you would like to attend.
Rolls-Royce is another looking to move to a new 52 week high at 240p. What of shorting, that is selling short to buy back later? J Sainsbury for one is falling off a cliff. Others looking decidedly 'iffy' include Minerva and RPS Group too.
What of a broader outlook? Well, it does seem the Bank of England might be willing to raise rates without the Americans raising there's - that means they are willing to see a soaring exchange rate and complaints from exporters and increases in imports all to stop consumers spending. But it won't stop consumers spending. I see little reason why interest rates in 3 years will not be double there existing levels.
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