Dip and dive or dip and rise: 4600, 4700�4500.

Well the title sums it up. Do we dip and dive or dip and rise? Oil at long last is putting pressure on the FTSE to dip below 4600, where sellers will feel more confident. However, on the longer term side there are enough players with enough money to try to test 4700.

As I get off the fence I am looking for a dip below 4600 before even considering 4700. This would also be in line with the Dow, which dipped below 10,000.

Looking at the FTSE 250 plays - Invensys has broken its downtrend, risen, then slipped back as it takes a breather. My view is if it makes a 2 day high without breaking below the recent low of 1100-1125 then the uptrend is in tact and the entry point is that 2 day high.

PZ Cussons is showing good momentum for us short-term traders. I remain weary of pull-backs as I mentioned in my last column and so the trick is most definitely to stay on the correct side by risk management - ie better get out sooner and ask questions later and re-enter if need be, than be caught in headlights of falling prices - that's my sense of this type of market. Sure it may rise quickly, but I am not going to say that mantra whilst it is falling. (More about all this in 'Patel on Stock Futures' from the ADVFN bookstore)!

The Broader Picture

In researching my speech delivered this past week at the London Stock Exchange for the Press Launch of IX-Expo Private Investor show at Olympia on 23rd October, I came across some very interesting market facts.

First, in the past 6 months the top 10 performing FTSE 100 stocks are up an average 30%. That is more than house prices, more gold, more than the pound against the dollar and more than oil. Yet, I bet in any mainstream national newspaper you will hear far more whining about oil and property.

The FTSE 100 is up 10% in 6 months and at the smaller company end, the Alternative Investment Market, 'AiM', the 50th best performer, not even the very best performer, is up 50% in 6 months.

Back at the ranch

Abbey shows a classic charting pattern with a rising momentum indicators and so caught my eye as an outlier.

You can meet me at IX Expo on October 22/23. Drop me an email with your address to alpesh@tradermind.com if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better' posted to you.

Value-Growth

The stocks on my radar which meet my proprietary criteria on value and growth measuring price to earnings growth, sales, profits, and numerous other factors includes SAB Miller - watch for it to break 770p but stay above 750p to remain in the present uptrend. Hunting Plc is value-growth in the medium term, but in the short-term is downward momentum.