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Alpesh Patel
Alpesh Patel's columns :
04/20/2006Oil and other crazy commodities
04/13/2006A quiet dip?
04/07/2006Equities booming - so where is the rally?
03/30/2006More Highs
03/15/2006Awful Feb - looking back in March
03/01/2006Highs on Equity Markets
02/22/2006European Interest Rates
02/17/2006The Quiet Before the Storm?
02/08/2006The Heat is Off
02/02/2006February the month of Valentine
01/25/2006Another Flight
01/12/2006Stock Picks for 2006
12/14/2005Fast Jet to India
11/17/2005The View From Here
11/02/2005After the Party
10/23/2005IX Investment Expo
10/02/2005Women Traders
09/27/2005Forex for us?
09/21/2005Trading as a Business
09/14/2005Women and Men; Mars and Venus
09/07/2005Fund Managers
08/31/2005Exchange Traded Funds
08/24/2005New York, London, Chicago
08/16/2005NYC Again
08/10/2005Summer Fun
08/03/2005Global Markets from a Foreign Perspective
07/29/2005Portfolio Destruction
07/20/2005Trader Health
07/13/2005Portfolio Management
07/06/2005Analyst Speak

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls
Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

The interest in Interest rates : beware and prepare.

04/13/2004

Will we or won't we - raise interest rates that is and which stocks are most likely to be impacted. For me as an investor looking to hold stocks for a week to two weeks I would rather look at stocks as they are performing now, assuming the market has the same insight as I do on what rates might do, than try to be too smart and predict the state of the world a week from now based on interest rate changes which may or may not occur.

So, for instance with momentum based trades - starting with small caps which I have not done for a while - Elementis is going through the roof, look for daily higher highs and exit on any lower low relative to the previous day.

A similar principle should be added for Vernalis. Capital & Regional is a more longer term upward trend. It could fall as low as 460p but still keep its longer term uptrend.

After sharp falls, ebookers looks like it wants to return to 450p and for those who held it at that price only a few weeks ago will be praying for it to do so. The momentum look promising but any drop below 300p would mean a complete back to the drawing board.

As long as Alphmeric stays above 80p - I am positive in the short term for it. It seems it's cool to be Indian - (what a relief) - and JP Morgan Fleming Indian Investment Trust has doubled in a year. The upward momentum has resumed as it breaks overhead resistance and the world's largest democracy goes to the vote this month.

Value-Growth

What about on my proprietary value-growth radar? These are stocks based on good valuations and strong revenue and earnings growth plus several other factors I put into the melting pot to cook up winners. So any newbies on there which I have not mentioned recently?

Yes indeed, Ennstone has come up but I am only positive if it moves above 42p. All the others I have mentioned recently and all are doing very well.

As I mentioned last week, "well, it does seem the Bank of England might be willing to raise rates without the Americans raising there's - that means they are willing to see a soaring exchange rate and complaints from exporters and increases in imports all to stop consumers spending. But it won't stop consumers spending. I see little reason why interest rates in 3 years will not be double there existing levels." Beware.


Alpesh B Patel, author of “Alpesh Patel on Stock Futures” available from the ADVFN bookstore.

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