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Alpesh Patel
Alpesh Patel's columns :
12/14/2005Fast Jet to India
11/17/2005The View From Here
11/02/2005After the Party
10/23/2005IX Investment Expo
10/02/2005Women Traders
09/27/2005Forex for us?
09/21/2005Trading as a Business
09/14/2005Women and Men; Mars and Venus
09/07/2005Fund Managers
08/31/2005Exchange Traded Funds
08/24/2005New York, London, Chicago
08/16/2005NYC Again
08/10/2005Summer Fun
08/03/2005Global Markets from a Foreign Perspective
07/29/2005Portfolio Destruction
07/20/2005Trader Health
07/13/2005Portfolio Management
07/06/2005Analyst Speak
06/29/2005CEO Speak
06/22/2005Media Again
06/15/2005Media Manipulation
06/08/2005India - Again
05/29/2005When its game over
05/18/2005The End of the Universe
05/11/2005Hedge Fund Woes
05/04/2005Downwards in an up market or upwards in a down market?
04/27/2005Tougher than a gangsters granny
04/20/2005Miserable or Not?
04/13/2005Cap and Floor
04/04/2005Misery of Joy?
03/23/2005Time for Timestrip?

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls
Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

Is it that bad?

03/03/2003

'I am finding it tough to find stocks to short' I explained to a colleague earlier this week. Even looking at some of the worst performers of the past 5-10 trading days I am not filled with doom, gloom and despair to go short.

Take British Airways. Technical analysts such as myself will tell you that it is showing a bearish divergence relative to the MACD (I know it sounds like a foreign language) - however the problem is the very strong uptrend. Fine - short it in the very short-term subject to a new 3 day high being an exit, but hardly a case for a long term sell.

So despite a falling dollar, is it that bad?

I have mentioned mmO2 a few times before the bid for the company was out in the open because on the chart it had a great run up beforehand - the issue now with the price around 105p as I write is whether the upside to 120p-130p is worth it? My view is someone is going to make a play, so down to 90p again is unlikely. If you want to take some money off the table then clear part of the position.

One of my favourites, Morrisions will have some short-term selling after its run up, but otherwise not one in the medium term of several months I have any complaint about.

As for long and sustained trends - Xstrata is an easy one. The great thing is you know where, roughly, to put your stop-loss exits - below the uptrend. It should not for instance drop below 685-690p for instance to keep our interest on the upside. Since it is at 740p, the upside target should be 820p at least to balance the downside risk. Now that would take 2 months at least.

Liberty looks likely to ease down to 700p at least before resuming up again. As for Land Securities - when they rise like this one, you just make sure you only exit on a 3 or 4 day low and re-enter on a 3 or 4 day high.

From Russia with gains

As ADVFN launch their new Russian stock service, I thought I would lend a helping hand by givin you a whiz bang tour of stocks to keep an eye on:

Vimpel Communications is a $4billion company is up around 12% year to date. With a p/e of 14, a PEG of a mere 0.3 and a mobile phone company whose major shareholders include Fidelity and JP Morgan the other thing you need to know about them is: "The population covered by the group's combined licenses is more than 28 million people, which represents approximately 19% of the Russian population."

Take a look also at MobileTelesystems and Rostelecom too.

You can email me about my free 50 page document on how to trade and invest better by me exclusively for ADVFN readers and: alpesh.patel@tradermind.com


Alpesh B Patel, author of “Alpesh Patel on Stock Futures” available from the ADVFN bookstore.

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