Come on Markets - Get Back to Work
09/11/2006
Sadly due to exhaustion I had to miss both a BBC News 24 interview and a CNBC interview this past week. Low volume continued the past week in the market. Consequently, it will probably only be this forthcoming week we actually get to a sense real market trends. The US will not raise rates for the rest of the year, which means the Dow will make a new high this year.
What is interesting is the best movers in the UK markets include two which are directly related to leisure - British Airways and Carnival. Of course BA's profits depend a lot on business travel, but again, the economy is nowhere near flagging. Things are solid, we just need some sustained price trends to latch onto.
Examining the Dogs of the Dow: stocks of the Dow Jones with the highest dividend yield, lowest price/earnings ratio and lowest price, which tend to outperform over the longer term, we have: Coca-Cola, General Motors, AT&T and Citigroup - some excellent names.
Looking at the FTSE 100, it looks weak for the weak ahead, albeit at a trendline support level. Watch for it to hit 5750 if it does go below support, else we should see more likely over the next month a return to 6000.
The UK stocks showing the strongest short term bullish momentum are: Bellway, Redrow, Premier Foods.
(Email me if you would like the presentation on the stocks I like for 2006, which I broadcast on BBC2 - the picks in the past two years produced a 83% compound return. For an invitation to my new free Private Members Invitation Only SpreadBetters Dining Club ' The sPredators Dining Club' (it's free, as is the excellent food and drink); the eligibility criteria being Members regularly bet at least £100 per point on the FTSE or equivalent in other financial or sports spreadbets. We will meet periodically at the Oxford and Cambridge Club, Pall Mall, London with like minded people to talk about the markets and learn from each other. Email me if you'd like to be considered for an invite.)
Value-Growth
Based on my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth -remember they are for a 12 month outlook: Benfield Group, Lookers, ROK, Telford Homes.
Remember I am targeting about 20-25% with the value growth criteria. Last year it produced 33% return.
On my momentum value indicator (which tracks stocks with value but which in the short term also have money going into the shares) I have Chaucer Holdings (new), Mallett, Yell Group.
Crazy Small Stock
These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my Network Technology, Total Systems, City of London Group.
Also, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better', which covers spreadbetting, CFD trading and momentum indicators like the MACD, posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh.patel@tradermind.com.
Spreadbetters
Spreadbetters and futures traders often look at hard and soft commodities. Here's my quick take on the action for the week ahead:
- Oil: Sideways to down
- Copper: Sideways
- Gold: Sideways to down
- £/$: Down
- Dow: Sideways to up
- FTSE 100: Sideways
- Soyabean Oil: Sideways
Market Data:
Top 3 FTSE 100 best performers in past month have been: Antofagasta, British Airways, Carnival. (Up on average 12%)
Top 3 FTSE 250 best performers in past month have been: Stanley Leisure, Spirent Communications, Morgan Crucible (up on average 25%)
Top 3 best sectors in past month have been: FTSE 350 Automobiles, FTSE 350 Electronics and Leisure Goods (up on average 9%)
FTSE 100 is at a level it first reached in: 1998
The Dow is at a level is first reached in: 2000
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