Hurray its September and it is easier
09/06/2006
As I was giving a tour of the ADVFN website this weekend at a course for traders, I remarked on the momentum indicators available on the charting packages on ADVFN. It reminded me just how much easier trading has become compared to five years ago.
As I ready myself for a CNBC appearance on Thursday where I will be interviewed from their New York studios, I am mindful of the US markets. On the market's mind is clearly US interest rates. Any indicator that they will be on hold for the rest of the year, and you will see the US markets rise.
The S&P 500 has fallen 0.7 percent on average in September between 1950 and 2005, according Stock Trader's Almanac. Stocks opened the month by rallying to four-month highs. What next? The Dow clearly has the 11,700 mark in its sites.
As for the FTSE 100, 6100 is the target if we can noticeably penetrate 6000. That also looks likely.
For an invitation to my new free Private Members Invitation Only SpreadBetters Dining Club ' The sPredators Dining Club' (it's free, as is the excellent food and drink); the eligibility criteria being Members regularly bet at least £100 per point on the FTSE or equivalent in other financial or sports spreadbets. We will meet periodically at the Oxford and Cambridge Club, Pall Mall, London with like minded people to talk about the markets and learn from each other. Email me with evidence of your betting if you'd like to be considered for an invite.
Examining the cheapest stocks of large, growing companies with market caps greater than $5 billion that are expected to grow earnings at least 20% next year but have price/earnings ratios less than 20 and price/sales ratios less than 1.5 - on this criteria there are a few retailers which stand out: Energy Transfer Partners, Valero Energy.
The stocks showing the strongest short term bullish momentum are: inchcape, Stanley Leisure, Clinton Cards, London Clubs.
(Email me if you would like the presentation on the stocks I like for 2006, which I broadcast on BBC2 - the picks in the past two years produced a 83% compound return.)
Value-Growth
Based on my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth -remember they are for a 12 month outlook: International Power, Reed Elsevier, NWF Group, among others.
Remember I am targeting about 20-25% with the value growth criteria. Last year it produced 33% return.
On my momentum value indicator (which tracks stocks with value but which in the short term also have money going into the shares) I have Photo-Me, Provident Financial and the rest are on the Value/Growth screen too - Reuters, Cosalt, Mallett, Allied Irish Banks.
Crazy Small Stock
These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my Baggeridge, Carr's Milling, Coral, VEGA.
Also, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better', which covers spreadbetting, CFD trading and momentum indicators like the MACD, posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh.patel@tradermind.com.
Spreadbetters
Spreadbetters and futures traders often look at hard and soft commodities. Here's my quick take on the action for the week ahead:
- Oil: Sideways to down
- Copper: Sideways
- Gold: Sideways to down
- £/$: Sideways to up
- Dow: Up
- FTSE 100: Sideways
- Soyabean Oil: Sideways
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