Well hello July

Just as well I mentioned US stock RIMM (makers of Blackberry) last week, because it was 20% four days later.

For all the sideways moves and holiday season mentality, let's not forget the Dow is only 10%-15% off its highest trading range back in 2000.

Now, energy, oil and gas. I have been short oil as I mentioned in an earlier column for some 6 weeks now, even though June and July are not good months to be short oil. However, having studied 'British Economic History since 1870' as an undergraduate, I think I can get a sense of when a trade in oil is at an extreme and the odds are extremely in my favour of a move in one direction.

And that is what has happened with oil... so far. I may need to exit the trade now that prices are no longer so skewed that it is a one way bet - it's now much more an uncertain bet. And I only like easy, no-brainer trades. Everything else is for everyone else.

So, as I sit here in front of my four Bloomberg screens (show off) and it is pouring with rain outside, what am I thinking? Let's kick off with the US. Some options trades in Microsoft, Boeing and Sun Microsystems have come off with acceptable results.

There are certainly more bearish signals now than there were in June. Big Food looks like a bad bet. John Wood also looks weak and set for short-term downwards moves especially if it pushes below 125p. SSL, whilst oversold, the trend is so very strong downwards.

Provident Financial is like SSL - oversold, but strong downwards trend in place. The risk with oversold stocks is the rise up (the strong burning feel that comes from your fingers as a result) can be very quick. I like to put a stop at around the 2-3 day high.

Go-Ahead are also oversold and being forced lower.

Value-Growth

Again I am getting Findel, albeit on a momentum basis it is overbought. Centrica is also on this radar, but momentum supports it too. Peacock is there on value-growth, albeit overbought on momentum.

ROK looks good on value-growth and also likely to rise on momentum too - with a good wind it should reach 400 in a month. Genus is new on the radar - it's volatile, but possibly eyeing 240p.

Thanks to everyone requesting my new 15 multimedia audio-visual CDROMs on 'How To Invest Better' from the ADVFN bookstore under 'Alpesh' in the search engine. (Although it says 10 on the site, I got carried away and added 5 more!) By the way, for everyone buying the full 15 set - just drop me a separate email and the publishers will arrange for signed copies of two of my latest books plus free CDROMs every 4-6 weeks, for 12 months, showing audio-visually stock moves over the past month and how they should have been handled professionally.

Crazy Small Stock

On this we have IAF, British Energy, James Latham.

All pure adrenalin momentum plays - not recommendations but simply 'crazy small stocks which may continue steep rises (or turn and burn) - but they almost certainly won't stand still.