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The cryptocurrency market sees unpredictable volatility which can be a challenge to investors and traders. Wild swings can happen in a matter of hours or even minutes. This offers opportunities if you understand how to use it to optimise investment decisions.
There are a range of factors driving the price volatility seen in cryptocurrency markets.
Impact of news and events – news about regulatory changes, activity of companies in the crypto sphere, and technological innovations can cause the price of cryptocurrencies to move significantly as markets react.
The fame factor – well-known personalities making statements about crypto can have an effect on the price. For example, Elon Musk’s comments about Dogecoin have caused significant price movements.
Market psychology – increased media interest in cryptocurrency can ramp up investor emotions such as FOMO (fear of missing out) and greed. Conversely, crypto doom and gloom on social media pushes the price down. This can lead to rapid price changes.
Supply and demand – Bitcoin, the major cryptocurrency, is limited to 21 million coins, and as the circulating supply gets closer to this limit, prices are likely to climb higher. In addition, every four years the reward for mining Bitcoin is halved, and this lowers the supply of coins entering the market, increasing scarcity and pushing up the price.
Geopolitical events – Bitcoin is considered a store of value and is also used as ‘flight capital’ in times of turbulence, so wars and global disasters can affect the price.
Growing pains – Cryptocurrency is still in its infancy, so it’s still in the price discovery phase. The price will continue to fluctuate until investors and governments settle their concerns, at which point the price should stabilise.
Factors That Create Bitcoin Volatility
Supply and demand | Bitcoin’s market value is affected by the number of coins in circulation. |
Investor sentiment | The crypto markets are to a large part driven by emotion. Prices can be driven by how confident investors are in the growth prospects. |
Government regulations | How government’s regulate cryptocurrency affects the price of Bitcoin with rumours affecting it short-term and enactment of regulations having a long-term effect. |
Media hype | News stories, influencers and industry gurus create hype which encourages prices to fluctuate. |
Diversification
A key risk management strategy when investing is portfolio diversification, and this applies to cryptocurrency just as much as other asset classes.
It is important to spread investments over a wide range of cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and smaller altcoins. This can help secure your portfolio against unexpected market moves in one cryptocurrency.
In addition to cryptocurrency, investors should consider diversification by investing in other digital assets, such as security tokens or DeFi projects.
Research
Before investing in any cryptocurrency you should investigate it thoroughly, analysing its business model, growth potential, development team and market analysis. Projects usually have whitepapers which give detailed information about the project and this will enable you to make informed decisions about where to invest.
Risk Assessment and Management
Cryptocurrency investments carry a certain level of risks, both for the market as a whole and individual projects, which you should assess. Factors to consider include network stability, market competition, legal regulations and current trends.
Before undertaking any investment you should have a risk management strategy. This will include setting a loss limit, to determine how much you are willing to lose on an investment before exiting, and stop-loss orders, to automatically sell assets when they fall to a set price.
Similarly, take-profit orders which automatically sell when a price is reached help to lock in profits.
Timing
Buying the dip and selling the high allows investors to take advantage of market volatility.
Dollar Cost Averaging
Since it’s hard to time the market with any accuracy, an alternative strategy is not to bother trying to buy at the bottom and sell at the top – but simply to spread buys over time rather than buying a lump sum all at once. This helps mitigate the impact of short-term market volatility.
Hedging
Derivative instruments can be used as a hedge against cryptocurrency investments. For example, if you purchase Bitcoin, you could also buy a put option to serve as a hedge against a drop in its price.
Derivative instruments include options, futures, CFDs (Contract for Difference) and perpetual swaps.
There are various technical analysis tools that investors and traders can use to predict and manage cryptocurrency price volatility, by identifying patterns, trends and potential price movements.
Moving Averages (MAs) | Smooths out price data and helps to identify trends. |
Bollinger Bands | A moving average line and two standard deviation lines which envelope the price, to help identify periods of high volatility and potential price breakouts. |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) | A momentum oscillator measuring speed and change of price movements, to identify overbought or oversold conditions with a potential price reversal. |
Fibonacci Retracement | Horizontal lines that indicate potential support or resistance levels, which can help to identify potential price reversals or continuation patterns. |
Volume Analysis | Trading volume can provide insights into market sentiment and the strength of price movements, thus indicating the start or end of a trend. |
1. What are some of the causes of cryptocurrency volatility?
Some of the factors that influence cryptocurrency volatility are market sentiment, regulatory developments, technological advancements, and macroeconomic events.
2. What methods can investors use to protect against cryptocurrency volatility?
There are a number of strategies that can help protect against cryptocurrency volatility, including portfolio diversification, research, Dollar Cost Averaging, setting stop-loss/take-profit orders, and hedging.
3. What technical analysis tools can I use to protect against cryptocurrency volatility?
Tools such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, RSI, Fibonacci retracement, and volume analysis can be used to aid in managing and predicting volatility.
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Trading in futures and options carries substantial risk of loss is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures and options contracts may fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investments.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or recommendations of any organizations or individuals mentioned. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professionals before making any financial decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any actions taken based on the content provided.
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