Matt Simpson

Expected rate cuts from the Fed and further easing from ECB helped stocks to rally in the lead-up to US Independence Day celebrations. Most notably, all three major US indices closed at record highs in unison, providing the President more gleeful tweets through to the early hours. The trend on the S&P500 remains undeniably bullish, […]

Whilst volatility is generally expected to be lower on US Independence Day today, Bitcoin clearly has other plans after rallying 10% just after US markets closed. Let’s take a close look at this volatility. On the face of it, the daily chart appears constructively bullish. It continues to print higher highs and lows, a 3-wave […]

Over the past six sessions, GBP/AUD’s downside has persisted as part of a bearish swing trade. And, now seemingly on the cusp of breaking key support after creating a lower high, we suspect the larger, bearish reversal is indeed coming into play. We highlighted previously that the rebound from July’s low lacked momentum, so we […]

Whilst we retain our core bearish view, a few indications point towards a corrective bounce before the dominant trend resumes. As we noted in our weekly COT report, net-short exposure on CAD futures was reduced by -23.3k contracts and gross shorts were closed at their fastest rate since July 2017. And this is after traders […]

Traders flipped to net-long exposure on Silver 3 weeks ago. Whilst it’s currently facing selling pressure, we’re looking for key levels above $15 to hold and confirm a bullish flag pattern. Silver was pushed down to an 8-day low in light of improved risk appetite, yet we’re keeping a close eye on its bullish trend […]

The consensus expects RBA to cut their overnight cash rate (OCR) to a new record low of 1% tomorrow. Yet it could be down to how dovish Lowe is in his subsequent speech as to whether 70c can crash though 70c. On the 16th June Philip Lowe said it was ‘likely’ RBA would have to […]

Weekly COT Report: Traders Ditch USD For A Fourth Consecutive Week As of Tuesday 25th June: Traders reduced net-long exposure to USD for a 4th consecutive week, shedding -$1.1 billion of long positions to $19.6k billion (23.3k billion against G10 currencies) The Canadian dollar saw the largest weekly change, where net-short exposure was reduced by […]

EUR/NZD broke the March trendline following Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting. Now approaching the June low, we could see a corrective bounce towards resistance and pave the way for two bearish potential patterns we’re monitoring. Since Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting, where they held rates but were less dovish than expected, NZD crosses have retained strength. With G20 meetings […]

The meetings have kicked-off and volatility remains capped whilst traders await potentially market-moving headlines and trade developments. We take a look at a couple of JPY pairs around the event. Markets were given a gentle lift in sprits yesterday on announcement that the US and China had agreed to a trade truce ahead of the […]

Bitcoin has been grabbing the limelight once more as it breaks through key levels like a knife through butter. Having travelled 20% yesterday alone, we’ve analysed how the crypto currency has performed on previous occasions following such levels of volatility. It’s no secret the Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto currencies are highly volatile vehicles, which […]